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不改变优质个股的长期价值，但结构性的趋势变化是影响企业盈利周期与行业阶段回报率的关键外生变量，也是触发资产定价重估的重要因素。过去一段时间，我国在大力培育新质生产力的同时，也面临地产等传统领域下行带来的压力，新经济的增长尚不足以完全对冲旧经济的收缩。我们认为，随着新动能持续壮大、债务化解稳步推进、以及防止无序竞争的政策逐步落地，经济有望在未来实现更均衡的发展。值得注意的是，即便在贸易摩擦背景下，中国出口仍保持了较强韧性，这背后是我国制造业在诸多细分领域展现出的突出成本与供应链优势。然而，从全球资产比价视角看，这一优势并未得到充分体现。近年来，由美国科技巨头引领的AI浪潮吸引了全球资本的高度关注，也在一定程度上加剧了投资者对中美长期竞争力比较的担忧，导致A股与美股市场整体估值出现显著分化。这种定价差异已持续数年，且在一定程度上有所加剧。我们认为，随着中国经济逐步触底回升，企业盈利回报水平得到改善，当前失衡的中美资产定价格局有望迎来修复。当前债券市场收益率与汇率走势已在部分反映这一趋势，全球资产配置的再平衡或已悄然启动。回顾2025年以来的市场，波动显著加剧。年初以Deepseek为代表的AI突破极大提振了本土科技创新的热情；4月后贸易摩擦升级又带来市场剧烈震荡，防御型的红利资产在此期间表现相对突出；而进入6月，市场风险偏好再度提升，带动部分科技方向估值快速扩张。整体而言，今年市场主线围绕风险偏好提升与估值扩张展开，新质生产力相关领域获得积极定价，而传统消费、制造等板块的修复信号尚不明确。展望未来，在海外财政与货币刺激逐步推动全球总需求达到相对高位后，各国在“分蛋糕”过程中可能面临更多贸易摩擦与博弈。因此，我们认为“反内卷”不仅指向国内产业结构优化，也涉及全球范围内产业链利益分配的再平衡。在这一过程中，中国具备竞争优势的制造业及中上游环节有望受益于价格中枢的上升。从红利策略角度看，过去几年红利资产的上涨主要受益于利率下行带来的系统性估值抬升，呈现普涨特征；而2025年行情则显现出更显著的结构性分化，尤其是港股红利因估值更低、股息率更高，表现明显优于A股红利资产。随着红利策略逐渐成为市场共识，其中易于获取的“低垂果实”已被充分挖掘，未来获取超额收益的难度有所增加。从大类资产比价视角看，随着无风险利率变化，股票资产定价中由久期带来的高弹性正在回归常态，部分类债资产的相对性价比有所下降，红利资产内部也面临结构再平衡的需要。因此我们在组合中适度增加了对周期资源品以及具备高质量盈利能力的红利风格资产的配置。行业配置上，我们仍以估值修复逻辑尚未完全演绎、预期回报空间依然可观的大金融板块作为核心仓位，并在结构上向非银领域倾斜，尤其关注利率周期触底背景下，久期缺口较大的保险板块的估值修复机会。同时，在控制组合波动的前提下，我们小幅增配了部分具备高股息或潜在分红能力的周期资源品，如铝、油、钢铁等；并提升了在化工与制造板块的配置比例。对于股息率较高的消费品，我们保持密切跟踪，但其基本面复苏信号仍需等待。此外，经历长期下行、估值已处于极低水平的地产行业，其市值与产业体量已明显不匹配，正逐步进入我们的研究视野，但由于A股地产红利相关标的可选范围有限，我们更倾向于关注地产产业链上的相关资产。苔花如米小，也学牡丹开。感谢各位持有人的信任，管理人将继续勤勉尽责，坚守价值投资框架与安全边际，努力为投资者争取长期稳健的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000005519,"stockCode":"005519","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":2,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2018-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":218343000,"market":"a","tickerId":5519,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金","shortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式(005519)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5332,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:39:35.271Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-05-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050140000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式","pinyin":"yhhghllhpzhhxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801373143","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":22426121520,"name":"贲兴振"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1449721","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8bd7fea5b3eb048467d","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005519,"sao":"国内股票市场的宏观背景是经济基本面尾部风险排除，对等关税后，全球经济、贸易、中国出口韧性超预期，消除了全球经济衰退和中国出口崩塌的尾部风险。另外弱美元有利于大宗商品和新兴市场股票的表现。股票市场结构上表现最好的方向是有色金属，AI算力和港股创新药，市场积极寻找大的宏观背景和产业趋势下受益的方向，并且要求有较高的赔率，赚估值扩张的钱。偏价值红利方向在最近几个月表现较差。展望接下来的宏观和政策环境，政策对冲经济下行的预期仍在，弱美元环境暂时较难反转。保险机构，养老金等性质资金在过去一年都对股票市场有显著资金流入，未来潜在新增资金有居民储蓄和海外资金。如果股市的下行波动率低，赚钱效应持续，低利率的环境下，存在资金持续流入的可能。　　本产品坚持低波红利策略选股。我们会在自己的低波红利选股策略框架内，不断完善方法论，争取获得相对于基准的持续稳定超额。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:18:53.930Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005519,"stockCode":"005519","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":2,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2018-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":218343000,"market":"a","tickerId":5519,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金","shortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式(005519)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5332,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:39:35.271Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-05-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050140000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式","pinyin":"yhhghllhpzhhxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801373143","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":22426121520,"name":"贲兴振"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1370760","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8bd7fea5b3eb048467c","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005519,"sao":"A股继续延续哑铃格局，大盘价值和小微盘占优。表现较好的行业特征是对总量经济要求较低，有银行为代表的防御类资产、新消费、医药生物的创新出海，以及可控核聚变和无人驾驶等主题类投资机会。表现好的方向有市场风险偏好较高的成长属性板块，投资者愿意根据一些边际变化对股票资产重新定价，同时低波红利方向也有较好的表现。发达国家股市对贸易条件缓和也都是反馈积极，美国科技股反弹较多。从资产表现背后的宏观交易主线看，关税风险整体缓和，但波折较多。风险资产方向是震荡上行。黄金和权益资产跷跷板明显。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:18:53.928Z","mo":"本产品坚持低波红利策略选股，上半年跑赢了基准，我们会在自己的低波红利选股策略框架内，不断完善方法论，争取获得相对于基准的持续稳定超额。","fund":{"_id":3000000005519,"stockCode":"005519","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":2,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2018-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":218343000,"market":"a","tickerId":5519,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金","shortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式(005519)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5332,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:39:35.271Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-05-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050140000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"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，赛道投资和中观景气度趋势投资在交易比较拥挤的热门行业中，部分机构投资者可能仍然在行业配置回归均衡过程中。  2021年很多制造产业链的中下游公司因为需求疲弱，上游原材料价格上涨叠加担心部分信用风险事件，股票价格全年跌幅较大。另外2021年调结构，政策鼓励和严控规范调整的行业表现冰火两重天。","declarationDate":"2022-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:18:53.892Z","mo":"2022年股票投资，结构和节奏仍然都很重要，预期差最大的基建和地产产业链；估值合理和盈利稳定，股价需要以时间换空间的消费产业链；供给见顶叠加稳增长估值极低的传统能源；高景气度维持但交易拥挤的新能源产业链在股价回调后可能都会有投资机会，另外行业内的个股表现也会因为行业格局变化和产业链利润重新分配分化显著。","fund":{"_id":3000000005519,"stockCode":"005519","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":2,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2018-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":218343000,"market":"a","tickerId":5519,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金","shortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式(005519)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5332,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:39:35.271Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-05-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050140000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式","pinyin":"yhhghllhpzhhxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801373143","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":22426121520,"name":"贲兴振"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=708754","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8bd7fea5b3eb048466d","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005519,"sao":"三季度表现较好的方向是新能源、上游周期品和一些主题投机类的中小市值公司。全球疫情控制效果的不同导致了很多环节的生产资料供需关系出现了时间上的错配，大宗商品整体出现了上涨，给中游制造业在需求疲软的背景下叠加成本上升带来了很大的压力。加上加速推动碳中和等因素，传统能源投资降低，新能源短期解决不了供给缺口，导致很多行业的投资逻辑和投资周期处在模糊不清的状态。此外，政策在今年加大了解决很多长期问题调整的力度，房地产严控、医疗集采、教育双减和互联网反垄断，有的是已经进行了规范调整，有的是投资者仍然在担心后续可能出台的相关政策，导致相关行业的股票估值水平和长期盈利预期出现了比较大的波动。  短期经济有继续下行压力，长期增长质量提升。我们对供给收缩下弱需求的周期价格上涨逻辑一直保持谨慎。在类滞涨或通缩压力背景下，宽货币和宽信用解决不了目前基本面的矛盾，并且宽信用即使向企业传导也需要两个季度时间。另外美债收益率上行和美元升值对新兴市场也有冲击。从我们重点跟踪的下游需求来看，绝大多数子行业需求都很弱。今年市场对稀缺的短期景气度上行的行业交易的比较极致，我们自己偏好稳定增长类的公司，所以今年市场在各个阶段交易结构性机会过于极致的背景下，没有及时做出应对，也错过了很多投资机会。对市场短期比较谨慎，所以进一步减持了组合里估值相对较高的医药股，少量增持了股价在底部的养殖、金融、黄金等，争取净值不再出现大幅度的回撤情况下，再逐步去赚取收益。长期我们对经济结构调整，转型升级和权益市场的结构性机会充满信心。我们坚持在自己能力圈范围内做投资，同时也会积极拓展自己的能力圈，加强学习。预计未来市场仍然是结构性机会，我们会在四季度市场震荡调整过程中根据估值和业绩的匹配程度择机加仓，配置方向上会比较均衡，更加看重安全边际。","declarationDate":"2021-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:18:53.890Z","fund":{"_id":3000000005519,"stockCode":"005519","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":2,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2018-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":218343000,"market":"a","tickerId":5519,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金","shortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式(005519)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5332,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:39:35.271Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-05-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050140000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合发起式","pinyin":"yhhghllhpzhhxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801373143","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":22426121520,"name":"贲兴振"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"银华混改红利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=652897","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8bd7fea5b3eb048466c","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000005519,"sao":"A股市场在一季度因美债收益率上行对交易拥挤的热门赛道高估值资产带来了较大的冲击。本基金配置较为均衡，在本轮回撤时相对于同类基金表现较为抗跌。但二季度在社融下降最快的阶段，利率下行明显。所以A股市场在二季度的反弹幅度也超出本人预期。市场对景气度上行和优势赛道的热门公司给予的估值水平更是超出了自己的预期。本基金的本轮市场反弹过程中配置方向整体对估值的要求较为保守，反弹幅度弱于同类基金。本轮市场反弹幅度较大的行业为医美、医疗服务、二线白酒、CXO、电动车等行业。一方面是因为这些公司所在行业长期成长空间大，同时中短期基本面趋势较好，另一方面二线品种和部分新股筹码结构相对较好，趋势性投机资金助涨。在投资标的质地最优和业绩增速最快的股票定价上都给予了很多的估值溢价。我会重点研究和跟踪这些优质公司的业务先发优势和行业格局是否可以保障未来的护城河更加稳固。自己也努力用更长期的思维看待这些优质公司的定价，但确实部分标的估值水平不在自己的估值接受范围之内。本产品的定位是努力实现在客户承担中低风险的情况下获得中高收益。在控制风险的方法论上，会考虑经济周期所处的位置以及各个企业盈利周期。构建组合上会在有行业属性相关度较低的不同方向股票资产，不会过于集中。我也在不断反思在权衡风险和收益过程中能有更有效的决策。在控制波动实现的方法上，如果一个好资产因为价格过高卖掉，我们需要以一个更便宜的价格买回来，需要做对两次。所以不同的投资者选择了不同的方法，有的同行认为两次都做对是较小概率实现，所以选择了承受波动享受泡沫或者希望通过时间企业创造价值来消化估值。我自己也在反思一个好资产如果因为价格过高卖掉，没有及时买回来，这样会损失长期收益率。另外在对风险的理解上，永久损失是真正的风险。因为自己对净值波动的容忍度相对较低，所以我应该更关注错失潜在盈利的机会风险。方法论会在实践的过程中不断完善，但本产品追求以中小风险实现中高收益目标的定位不会改变。自己需要提高的是对市场估值体系更深刻的理解，对于高景气高成长高估值的行业，不要排斥，多关注变化，增强对公司更深刻的认知。如果对于公司估值的容忍度接受不了，公司质地又很好，少量配置，等待市场一些系统性风险或者公司中短期经营数据景气度变化扰动可能带来的投资机会。性价比投资关注估值水平和赛道型投资容忍波动两种方法各有利弊，我们想控制组合的波动，重视性价比，但在控制了中短期波动率情况下，努力以不牺牲长期收益率为代价。控制净值波动希望做到牺牲了一点中短期的业绩弹性，但更有利于长期累计收益率。最理想的是我们通过构建相关度较低不同方向生意属性的股票资产，而这些具体公司通过价值创造的能力实现股价的稳步上涨，上涨过程中难免都会有分歧带来股价的震荡，但不同方向资产如果节奏上有所不同，可以降低基金净值波动。新兴产业的快速崛起和传统行业优势龙头公司竞争优势的增强，都会给股票市场带来很多结构性机会。我会更加重视基础研究，少关注每日的涨涨跌跌。","declarationDate":"2021-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:18:53.887Z","mo":"未来重点关注传统行业如防水材料、饲料、高端白酒、白电、银行等行业优质公司竞争能力持续增强和盈利水平提升带来的相对确定性较高的投资机会，同时关注高成长、高估值的电动车产业链、CXO等行业合适的投资机会。我们深知长期赚取的是企业内在价值增长的钱，A股历史上在影响股票定价的多个变量中，中短期的业绩增速对短期股价较为有效，投资者容易赚到戴维斯双击的丰厚收益，但在景气度下行时，这类标的估值也下杀明显。自己的投资风格偏稳健保守，希望控制好组合波动，投资者有较好的持有体验，所以对成长风格的标的配置比例较低。自己在不断反思，如何通过加深对产业趋势和时代背景的更深刻的认知和构建组合更科学的方法论来提高组合的长期收益率水平。感谢各位投资者的信任，我会竭尽全力，努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