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年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=560315","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec82b7fea5b3eb0478c61","stockId":3000000004850,"sao":"从Q3的各项经济数据来看，国内需求端仍然在环比修复的过程中，海外经济方面，在经过前期的快速修复以后，目前斜率也有所放缓，而且近期疫情的反弹引起了市场的忧虑。但目前看，海外经济恢复的大方向仍没有变化。往后看，经济能否持续修复并超预期，除了恢复偏滞后的部门继续向上之外，还依赖于几个因素：1）财政支出加快，推动基建和相关支持领域的景气回升。2）疫苗出台，对外需形成较大的提振。因此，目前经济修复的方向仍然确定。流动性短期相机抉择，悲观预期修复，但中期隐患未除。过去一段时间，央行的操作以及资金利率中枢上行也表明流动性拐点已经出现，比如资金利率，8月份以来超过政策利率的频率相比之前是有所增加的。因此，我们可以简单总结央行的态度：方向上偏鹰派，但在节奏上有相机抉择的特征。而从市场的行为来看，金融机构对流动性的态度总是存在过度悲观和乐观的特征，这也是价格波动的重要原因。目前我们认为股债都处于流动性与经济增长预期的再平衡过程中，股债在整体上都处于震荡的格局里。随着高估值资产的调整和低估值资产的修复，经济修复强度是否超预期以及届时政策的进一步选择将成为改变市场的关键因素，我们预计未来2-3个月是非常重要的时间窗口，比如对财政支出强度和力度、制造业修复程度的判断。中期来看，经济继续修复和流动性进一步收紧仍然是相对概率更高的场景。组合报告期内维持较高的债券仓位，主要以精选中低久期中高等级信用债为主，同时配置较低比例的可转债仓位，以绝对收益的思路对整个组合进行动态调整。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:27.136Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004850,"__csrcFundId":4718,"stockCode":"004850","shortName":"中欧弘涛债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":4850,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2021-12-14T08:22:58.589Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-08-31T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中欧弘涛债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"currency":"CNY","delistedDate":"2021-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","masterFundShortName":"中欧弘涛债券"},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧弘涛债券型证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=491831","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec82b7fea5b3eb0478c60","stockId":3000000004850,"sao":"上半年市场呈现比较明显的两阶段行情,1-4月底市场核心在于疫情导致经济的停摆和央行的超常规放松预防金融市场的风险,因此整体债券市场呈现收益率单边下行的走势,而权益市场则呈现明显的结构性行情;5月初-6月底,金融、经济数据好转，经济基本面大幅回落的压力下降，同时随着国内疫情的控制和逐步好转，各项财政刺激政策逐步出台，债券供给快速上升，同时流动性也逐步回归正常化，综合几方面的因素，债券收益率出现了大幅上升。上半年组合主要高等级信用债投资为主，获取较为稳定的票息和杠杆收益，同时配置较低比例的可转债，获取超额收益。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:27.133Z","mo":"随着国内疫情的逐步好转以及疫苗的研发上市，下半年各项经济活动将更趋常态化，政策重心将从应急状态转到着眼长期化，总量宽松的斜率可能放缓，结构性的导向将更加明确。经济基本面仍处在上升通道中，但是环比增速将放缓，流动性大幅收紧的可能性不大，总体环境对债券市场的影响趋于平稳。下半年需要重点关注美国大选以及弱美元环境的持续性。下半年对于纯债市场而言，短久期精选个券配置，以票息收入为主是主要策略。可转债市场精选低溢价率以及正股基本面良好的品种，行业配置仍以TMT、医药、建筑建材等有长期逻辑的品种为主。","fund":{"_id":3000000004850,"__csrcFundId":4718,"stockCode":"004850","shortName":"中欧弘涛债券","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":4850,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2021-12-14T08:22:58.589Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-08-31T16:00:00.000Z","name":"中欧弘涛债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":0,"fundCollectionId":4000050570000,"currency":"CNY","delistedDate":"2021-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","masterFundShortName":"中欧弘涛债券"},"announcement":{"linkText":"中欧弘涛债券型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=460893","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}