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大力提振消费政策有望对社零增速和通胀回升形成边际支撑。2026年在流动性保持宽松的基础上，如有业绩改善催化，有望驱动A股继续向上。市场可能延续结构分化、板块轮动的特征，在科技成长、顺周期价格恢复、需求受益板块中选择标的，继续挖掘各条线中的涨价因子。关注全A非金融盈利周期能否向上摆脱磨底期，以及TMT、高端制造等业绩高增行业能否持续。　　债券方面，基于支持经济和政府债发行以及应对人民币升值，央行货币政策预计继续保持宽松取向。结构上曲线形态很难大幅变陡，短端品种在资金宽松背景下票息价值凸显。关注中长期品种的波段机会，配置价值进一步体现需要等待情绪和机构行为企稳。","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1459137","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb047746e","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"三季度经济动力有所不足，但流动性和海外科技继续支撑市场。结构上看，供给端修复有所反复，有效需求不足等制约性因素依然存在。投资增速延续下滑，其中制造业投资累计同比增速放缓，房地产景气仍待改善。消费复苏力度偏弱，社零当月同比增速下降较快，结构上国补品类下滑较为明显。社融方面，企业信贷受供需综合影响，仍持续有同比少增的压力。三季度政策组合主要聚焦于结构性财政工具、房地产、资本市场等领域，推进落实上半年重要会议对重点方向的部署，继续维持市场信心及风险偏好。　　海外方面，年内中美关系继续处于缓和+谈判的稳定框架内，有望在关税、出口管制、市场开放、产品采购等领域取得新进展，市场沿着平稳的外部预期继续走下去。美联储今年首次降息25个基点，点阵图显示年内仍有50个基点降息空间，但部分委员存在对自然利率处于更高水平的判断，叠加后续展望提升了经济增长和通胀预期，中性利率长期水平可能向上抬升，后续降息路径和节奏仍然具有较大不确定性。　　权益市场方面，A股在创新高后有所调整，整体处于窄幅区间震荡。资金面正反馈是当前行情持续性的关键，目前来看仍偏积极。海外流动性及地缘问题继续改善，国内政策预期还有一定基础。市场风格进入再平衡的过程，一方面顺周期风格进入提前交易窗口、滞涨方向补涨；另一方面科技风格内部高切低，行情从上游算力硬件转向泛AI分支多点开花。需要警惕短期波动风险，一是企业转向业绩驱动仍未看到明显拐点；二是强势品种由小票转向机构大票，市场波动率放大。赚钱效应暂未明显回落，对应市场盘整概率仍较高，上行则有待基本面、产业因素进一步蓄势。　　债券市场方面，债市多空对于定价权的争夺变得愈发激烈，逐步出现摆脱股票风险偏好冲击的迹象。10年期国债的运行箱体界限更加明确，在1.75%至1.8%区间内窄幅波动。从定价内容看，市场交易主要围绕两个逻辑，一是潜在的央行重启买债，二是公募基金费用改革。机构对债券基金赎回力度有所减弱，但仍在持续。配置力量相对缺位对利率下行空间形成一定约束，关注中长期品种的反弹机会。债市配置价值的进一步体现需要等待情绪和机构赎回状态的企稳。　　总体来看，A股行情体现出明显的流动性驱动，结构性走强由技术突破、资金充裕与预期修正共同驱动。但经济总量仍有下行压力、中观行业仍未摆脱利润负增局面、价格回升还需政策加码。具体投资操作上，组合在战略层面维持高股息+部分高弹性，仓位尚未恢复到标配，等待资产价格从风险偏好驱动定价向基本面定价回摆，在此过程中捕捉波动率放大后回调加仓的机会。　　展望后续，外部窗口保持平稳，市场关注全球流动性边际改善与利率中枢温和下行。国内7月以来宏观数据偏弱，反内卷影响下供给端也出现走弱趋势，需要宏观政策提供经济结构转型所需的相对宽松的环境，四季度继续推进结构性政策可能性较大。后续基本面有压力、上市公司整体未见业绩拐点等仍是现实存在的问题，关注市场情绪从强预期向弱现实回摆的可能风险。包括一是M1代表的剩余流动性改善能否持续，且在结构上表现出内生性回升的迹象；二是三季报业绩能否继续边际改善，继而提供盈利周期继续上行的证据。　　权益方面，等待回调风险释放后的加仓机会。市场将延续结构分化、板块轮动的特征，在科技成长与需求受益板块中选择高弹性标的，同时保持对量能与外部事件的密切跟踪。10月市场逐步进入三季报交易窗口，中观产业景气度较二季度基本走平，预计三季报全A非金融盈利周期仍将处于磨底期。板块方面关注两个方向，一是科技主线硬件先行与应用跟进的传导逻辑，最终AI应用商业化落地形成“算力-场景-数据”的正向循环，还有政策与资本双重加持。二是周期板块政策引导+行业自发调整，在反内卷供给端效果被逐步消化后，后续机会存在于全球货币宽松、投资需求回升之中，工业原料、中间资本品、工程机械等都可能有较好表现。　　债券市场看，继续提升仓位久期需要有更高的预期回报，例如10年国债利率上行至1.85%以上超跌位置，或者债券赚钱效应预期提高，情绪变好，例如出现央行降息、大规模买债预期高、股债跷跷板等因素。维持反弹操作观点，结构上曲线形态很难大幅变陡，保持哑铃结构。四季度政府债净发行压力明显下降，在债基赎回费等显性利空真正落地以前，债市收益率上行暂时有限。如果利率冲高则关注中长期品种加久期参与短期交易性机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.500Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2025年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1380988","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb047746d","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"上半年国内地产数据趋势性偏弱，商品消费在“618”提前和财政支持下增速较好，但可持续性或需要依靠未来财政补贴进一步提升。餐饮消费从“新八项规定”开始可能短期仍将延续弱势。贸易摩擦缓和后，抢出口期结束后集装箱预定量和发出量等数据回落至过去两年同期，出口增速持续性存疑。整体基本面走势维持“弱趋缓”，后续政策增量可能难以超出市场预期。财政政策方面，地方专项债3-5月阶段提速后，6月后发行速度有所放缓，国补资金剩余1380亿元计划于下半年分三、四季度分批下达，财政端整体定力相对较强。5月降息10bps后，结合当前财政节奏放缓，货币进一步宽松或使得资金流动性转向空转。　　海外方面，美国经济预期在滞涨与衰退间摆动，特朗普政策路径均指向美元贬值、通胀压力、货币宽松难度上升等。当前美股定价关税对通胀冲击不大、企业盈利增速预期较乐观，对应经济软硬数据背离开始收敛，美股随软数据一同回升。后续关注经济硬数据进一步回落且美联储行为滞后的风险，同时地缘风险反复扰动资金风险偏好。　　就权益市场表现看，上半年中证800从年初4100点回升至4262点，上涨0.87%，整体呈现N型震荡走势。自4月中美关税摩擦以来，全球权益资产完整演绎“关税灰犀牛”的冲击和逆转交易。6月12日中美达成协议，从市场反馈来看，边际影响逐步钝化。关税反转开启的risk-on模式驱动力不足，全球可能转向进入risk-off阶段。A股指数反弹充分反映关税冲击后的乐观预期，但未计价对基本面负面影响，资金量有限情况下主题轮动极快操作难度大。风格层面小盘股风偏强化，但同时波动也加大。　　债券市场方面，在税期、季末等利空因素涌现阶段，资金面仍能保持平稳，触发债市情绪，短端利率回落带动曲线陡峭化下行，利率老券和长端信用债表现好于长端利率活跃券，原因在于活跃券利率已经下行接近前低的情况下，市场对债市抱有较高的乐观情绪。　　总体来看，当前宏观经济基本面相对2024年末和2025年3月末并未发生根本性改变，行业轮动变化的节奏延续资金端行为主导，一方面股票仓位保持相对较低配置，另一方面基于宏观叙事保有一定的红利板块（以银行等为主），同时会利用部分战术仓位参与个别主题机会。从跨资产联动来看，对等关税、中美日内瓦协议以及美债危机，持续重创美元信用根基，美债无风险资产属性受到了削弱。美国债务上限打开后重启长债发行，同时赤字预算又高于预期，市场重新定价美国债务扩张的长期风险溢价。　　安隆回报上半年实现0.46%收益率，具体投资操作上，一季度跟踪AI+产业链的扩散情况，轮动操作主线赛道，同时保留部分红利股仓位，平滑进攻性头寸的波动。4月初在即将面临关税这一较大不确定因素的情况下，结合A股市场的业绩趋势和动态估值，我们综合权衡了其中的胜率与赔率之后，进行了果断减仓，减轻了组合在4月7日市场大跌中受到的冲击。随后由于短期估值快速回归，从赔率的角度我们较快填补了部分仓位。从风格上来讲，我们动态保持均衡的风格，目前结构对红利会有一些倾斜。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.497Z","mo":"政策节奏有所变化，一方面在于关税事件边际缓和，在事件悬而未决之前国内政策工具不会使用完毕，另一方面经济数据如3-5月消费及出口表现尚可，全年目标实现压力较小。政策转向“以时间换空间”的平稳思路，增量资源更多向科技领域倾斜。如增加3000亿科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度等。后续财政政策力度取决于经贸谈判进展和经济形势变化，可进一步提高预算赤字或者增发特别国债。未来财政政策的方向关注稳就业、稳企业、稳市场和稳预期方面。　　权益方面方面，考虑指数已数次试探前高的估值中枢，但均未有效突破，同时配置主线暂未确立，继续控制仓位、保持耐心。在高频数据多方印证国内经济超预期改善前，除非市场出现新的叙事，否则指数进一步向上突破的概率不高。随着政策与业绩空窗期结束，中报预披露和可能召开的政治局会议，有望对市场交易线索产生一定的影响，准备关注潜在景气行业方向。需要防范海外流动性收紧的风险，美国债务压力重新发酵、特朗普再次释放关税威胁等均会影响全球风险偏好回落，并对A股造成冲击。　　债券市场看，基本面数据整体边际回落，但幅度有限，这是利率在前低附近仍有阻力的重要原因。从大方向上看，当前市场的关键仍在于短端能否继续回落，进而带动活跃券创下新低。券种方面，利率3年政金债、长端与超长利率较优，信用债4-5年具备一定的性价比。","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1345553","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb047746c","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"回顾一季度，我们采取了核心+卫星策略的多策略投资体系。其中，在保持核心配置处于整体中性的配置下，积极使用卫星策略仓位参与了智驾和AI等机会，期间在左侧对估值透支过多的个股进行了减仓操作。债券方面，以短久期债券配置为主，并择机进行组合久期的调整。　　从目前的国内基本面来看，宏观经济总体平稳，但结构分化。支撑在于基建重大项目推进较快，以旧换新支撑家电、汽车销售，出口货运受低基数推升，且地产销售“金三”成色尚可。拖累在于家电、汽车等中下游行业生产增速放缓，房地产销售的恢复尚未充分传导至房建施工，企业预期和信心有待巩固和提升。财政维持收入小幅放缓但支出继续扩张的状态，PMI等情绪数据延续边际小幅改善。　　从股票市场来看，整体处于区间震荡中。从全市场整体EPS边际变化来看，本轮周期相对前两轮弹性较弱，市场的整体估值处于中性略贵的状态，核心在于略被透支的估值是否能够被预期业绩消化。具体来看，1、中短期市场交易的焦点在于美国对等关税及其连锁事件落地过程的预期。2、两会后增量财政政策落地，基本符合预期。国常会部署加快加力清理拖欠企业账款工作，全国碳排放权交易市场首次扩围至钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业，财政部2025年财政政策要更加积极，提高财政赤字率、安排更大规模政府债券。国内应对潜在贸易摩擦超预期压力，增量政策已有储备且预计会对冲落地。3、中美关系处于平淡期，暂未展开有效地谈判，前期已施压情况下很难继续加码。4、从周期思维观察市场，需密切注意全市场业绩的边际变化。因此我们会根据中微观业绩趋势周期和流动性所反映出的市场节奏和动态估值水平，对组合进行平衡调节。　　债券方面：一季度利率债出现了一定程度的调整，是否出现有吸引力的机会，我们认为在取决于前经济复苏的节奏和银行资产端信贷投放情况。如果经济复苏低于预期，信贷投放较弱，那么利率债作为优质生息资产或再次被配置方银行端所关注。反之则利率债可能继续区间震荡。一方面我们会时刻跟踪高频数据，渐进调节组合结构；另一方面，也会在市场遭遇情绪或流动性冲击的时候，进行区间波段操作。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.494Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1277100","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb047746b","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"2024年权益市场波动较大，整体收涨，中证800全年上涨12.2%。安隆回报基于多资产投资理念，以基准为标尺进行校准，进行积极的资产配置和投资组合构建，全年实现5.7%的正收益。就宏观基本面而言，一季度经济延续修复形态，二季度经济修复不及预期。工业稳增长政策对生产扩张有积极支撑。从需求看，由于前期释放集中，内需增速有所回调。投资整体受累于房地产市场疲弱，制造业在设备更新政策支持下表现亮眼；专项债发行进度慢导致资金到位不足，因而基建实物工作量恢复低于预期。消费节奏上节假日效应明显，但社零环比增速持续低于疫情前的平均水平，二季度居民消费在商品和服务两端均出现动能乏力。三季度高频经济数据走弱，政策加码概率提升。9 月 24 日国新办新闻发布会政策“组合拳”，兼顾实体经济和资本市场，叠加 26 日政治局会议，稳住经济增长回归首要位置。从政策力度看，货币、财政和流动性支持工具一次性释放，范围和力度均超出市场预期，有力地传递出活跃资本市场的积极信号，权益市场的政策底或已基本确立。四季度以来权益市场呈现震荡格局，国内经济恢复呈现分化，政策直接支持领域和出口表现较好，政策未支持领域依然疲软，限额以下及非耐用品消费依然偏弱。政策面，中央经济工作会议定调更加积极的财政政策。降准降息预期升温，叠加机构抢配债券，利率快速下行。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.492Z","mo":"A股方面，2024年四季度以来政府出台一系列的积极政策，但经济触底仍需要时间，基于EPS的指数修复预计难以快速出现。展望2025年，消费刺激仍然是有效的对冲投资下滑和出口风险的重要手段，我们认为2024年已经出台的细分领域的政策在2025年还会得到延续，且预计会有更多的消费细分领域推出新的政策。目前蓝筹白马估值处于市场的相对底部，红利类资产虽然累积了两年的涨幅但类比国债收益率仍然有不错的吸引力，在2025年全社会收益率下行的背景下这两类资产仍然具有较高的相对配置价值。对于科技进步，智能驾驶和AI应用在2025年预计有持续的产业突破，并将不断落地商业模式。债券方面，当前国内经济修复尚不牢固，宽货币导向的确定性较强。2025年财政将持续积极发力，因此需要货币政策持续配合抑平流动性波动。央行或将有降准和降息，上半年调降概率较大，下半年则可能根据经济情况与外部环境相机抉择。在 “正常的向上倾斜的收益率曲线”监管框架下，预计期限利差压缩空间有限，整体或将呈现较为陡峭化的趋势。","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1255489","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb047746a","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"三季度高频经济数据走弱，政策加码概率提升。海外方面，9月美联储降息50BP，超出市场预期，但经济数据及宽财政趋势仍然保持。美联储降息有助于国内降息通道的畅通。9月24日国新办新闻发布会政策“组合拳”，兼顾实体经济和资本市场，叠加26日政治局会议，稳住经济增长回归首要位置。从政策力度看，货币、财政和流动性支持工具一次性释放，范围和力度均超出市场预期，有力地向市场传递出活跃资本市场的积极信号，权益市场的政策底或已基本确立。展望四季度，欧美央行进入降息周期已经明确，国内降息空间趋于打开。尽管政策的出台到落地见效需要时间，但从会议召开节点及表述来看，稳增长基调更为明确。往后看，更多增量政策正在路上，财政方面将会安排扩赤字、增发国债，化债等长效资金，投向也转向民生保障和地方政府基层三保等效率更高的部门。后续还有若干兑现财政力度的时间窗口，包括10月的全国人民代表大会、12月的中央经济工作会议。重点关注：一是Q4新增政府债的规模、对明年赤字安排的表述；二是财政开支的方向，是否能顺利落地到居民部门；三是财政开支的路径，地方政府、银行如何与中央直达工具配合，提高财政刺激效率。当前A股和港股利好频出，内需相关行业的超跌反弹可能会持续，而且可能是主旋律。基于对基本面研究及政策预期判断，基金已在9月中旬加仓；后续关注是否大规模财政刺激计划逐步落地。具体权益策略上，紧密跟踪宏观经济预期差，寻找价值触底的优秀公司。当前周期认识和价值发现的思维策略仍有效，继续关注具有极低估值水平和超级稳健商业模式的板块，包括具有较好性价比的部分必选消费板块，消费降级因素已在前期股价中有所消化，后续或将受益于财政刺激继续向好；结合市场继续跟踪红利高股息品种如环保及公用事业相关公司；关注供给驱动下的需求扩张的板块，包括智能驾驶和AI产业链相关投资机会等。债券方面，在央行进一步宽松之前，长债利率已快速下行，后续宽松落地时可能是利多出尽时间窗口。考虑到基本面修复节奏以及资金面逐步转向平衡等因素，中期视角债市宽幅震荡的概率较大，对债市维持谨慎观点，策略上关注久期和高信用等级品种。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.489Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1179303","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb0477469","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"一季度经济延续修复形态，二季度经济修复不及预期。工业稳增长政策对生产扩张有积极支撑。从需求看，由于前期释放集中，内需增速有所回调。投资整体受累于房地产市场疲弱，制造业在设备更新政策支持下表现亮眼；专项债发行进度慢导致资金到位不足，因而基建实物工作量恢复低于预期。消费节奏上节假日效应明显，但社零环比增速持续低于疫情前的平均水平，二季度居民消费在商品和服务两端均出现动能乏力。外需上欧美进入补库周期对出口形成持续支撑。从供给看，当前工业企业整体的盈利基础仍需巩固，补库呈现平坦化，工业生产的持续性仍待需求发力支撑。海外方面，美国相对欧日基本面强韧，美元指数震荡偏强。政策方面，上半年宏观政策继续围绕稳经济和化风险展开，重点在于拉动消费与投资，同时加速对房地产市场的调整。4月政策集中在大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，以促进经济结构调整和消费升级。5月政策侧重于财政和房地产领域，地产需求侧限制解除基本打满预期，设立3000亿元保障性住房再贷款，提振居民购房信心。6月高层会议密集，三中全会的方向逐渐明朗，指向财税体制、土地要素改革等提升社会效率的方面。财政方面，地方财政支出和基建投资增速偏低，受限于卖地收入和税收收入不及预期。货币政策上，央行侧重于平衡银行净息差、汇率稳定和防资金空转。在这样的情况下，我们认为，宏观调控存在一定的滞后效应，经济复苏依然不稳定。部分政策效应尚未完全显现，需要更多时间发挥效用。宏观调控可能在7月三中会议后进一步加强。同时，在美联储进入降息通道后，汇率压力和利率预计下调。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.486Z","mo":"展望下半年，经济形势的不确定性主要在四个方面：第一，地方财政和基建投资方面，地方专项债和超长期特别国债发行进度加快，能否顺利形成实物工作量，以及土地财政下行等导致的地方财政紧平衡能否推动相应投资回升；第二，外需贸易摩擦和地缘政治风险显现，是否会对出口造成不利影响；第三，市场主体和预期方面，下阶段宏观政策和改革措施加码，能否有效提振居民和企业信心；第四，房地产方面，稳地产政策持续发力和较长时间的调整后，房地产市场能否企稳回升以及企稳的程度。后续市场操作将主要跟踪这四个主要矛盾的进度。A股市场从趋势性机会来看，利润弹性的修复有待相关指标的出现，包括企业居民存款增速差回升、M1（狭义货币供应量）同比回升、PMI（采购经理人指数）回升、通胀中内需影响部分减缓拖累等。往后看，市场具备结构性机会，需寻找高性价比的资产进行布局。具体策略上，紧密跟踪宏观经济的预期差，寻找价值触底的优秀公司。当前周期认识和价值发现的思维策略仍有效，继续持有必选消费板块，在市场估值水平极低的情况下，具有稳健商业模式的必选消费型公司仍是当下估值性价比较好标的，同时也兼具一定的股息率和防御力。关注部分低风险的红利高股息品种，如环保及公用事业相关公司；以及中美制造业共振下库存周期回升出口链条受益的个股；此外，关注供给驱动下需求扩张的板块。对于债券市场，在央行二级市场买卖国债工具出台后，债市波动可能加大，曲线存在变陡的概率，对债券市场操作略偏谨慎。","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5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2021年和2022年部分中小微企业继续延缓缴纳部分税费，递延到今年的1-5月，补缴税对资金面的影响持续到5月份，压力最大的月份是2月份。理财产品3月以来在债券二级市场保持净买入债券资产。央行降准0.25个百分点，目的在于缓和银行间流动性压力，有助于对实体部门的信贷投放。基本面，今年以来，1个月国股票据利率走势强于去年同期，信贷靠前投放。前两个月人民币贷款同比多增1.5万亿，中长期贷款同比多增1.6万亿，企业中长期贷款同比多增2万亿。2月份，居民部门债务余额增速同比回升，企业部门自去年8月份以来持续加杠杆。2022年2季度，城镇居民可支配收入同比增速见底。后续重点关注居民部门是否重启加杠杆。信用债融资好转，信用债存量与城投债存量自今年1月见底回升。操作层面，债券方面，我们维持短久期策略，对1年以内券种按性价比进行了调整。权益方面，依然以政策发力方向主要配置方向，增持了TMT等相关的标的。经济修复的持续性可能是二季度股票和债市交易的关键因素。政策仍呈现前置发力的特征，在财政发力背景下，企业中长期贷款有望继续维持高增，并对信贷构成较强支撑。债券方面，保持短久期和适度的流动性，我们考虑继续维持短久期策略，对1年以内券种按性价比进行调整。股票方面，增加自下而上个股配置，寻找全年业绩增长确定估值便宜的公司。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.473Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=885838","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb0477463","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"2022年上半年，宏观形势较为复杂。一方面，受疫情反复影响，国内经济复产节奏相对缓慢。为了对冲疫情的影响，政府出台一系列稳增长措施，对经济基本面形成支撑。基建投资是主要抓手，表现出最强韧性；在较高的失业率水平、收入增速缓慢和较高居民杠杆率之下，消费恢复相对最慢，呈现出滞后性。另一方面，全球商品供需结构较为紧张，叠加俄乌冲突的影响，资源品价格快速上行，海外通胀压力增大，美联储加息节奏快于预期，经济增长的节奏受到了较大的影响。三季度国内宏观经济较二季度有明显改善，但改善的持续性和力度受到挑战。基建方面，受资本金、项目、疫情、天气等影响，实物工作量复工力度较弱；地产方面，销售和土地成交数据在短暂回暖以后继续疲弱；消费方面，受疫情影响，线下消费整体动能不足。但同时我们看到针对性的稳经济措施不断出台，专项基建基金，“保交楼、稳民生”专项借款，消费补贴券，汽车购置税减免等政策措施精准发力，都成为经济增长动力的正拉动方向，从而带来相关行业的投资机会。四季度，在防疫政策和地产融资政策出现明确拐点后，底层逻辑切换，债市迎来了由基本面预期切换触发、资金收紧助推、赎回反馈放大的波动。宽信用、基本面修复斜率回升趋势不变，而兑现政策预期过程中，经济回升的斜率和节奏较为关键。权益市场方面，2022年上半年呈V型走势。能源相关板块表现出明显的超赢。随着复工的恢复和疫情的好转，以汽车、消费等板块表现更为突出。三季度震荡回落，四季度触底反弹。债券市场方面，大致分为三个阶段。第一个阶段，从年初延续到8月降息以前，长端利率基本上是横盘震荡，上有顶下有底的格局，顶部对应1年MLF利率。第二个阶段，8月降息使得利率波动中枢往下移动，收益率创出阶段性新低，之后反弹调整至MLF利率对应顶部。第三个阶段从11月开始，十年期国债收益率快速突破1年 MLF利率。总体来看，2022年大半年债市主要围绕政策利率构筑的中枢进行波动。操作策略上，股票方面，上半年以能源、电力、电动车产业链和新能源中游制造业为主，增加了低估值的必选消费品行业。三季度依然以政策发力方向和能源电力主线为主要配置方向，逐步降低了前期涨幅较大的新经济方向的标的，并贮备了基建和消费发力相关的标的。四季度则增持了基建和消费发力相关的标的。债券方面，保持了较短的债券久期，以争取票息收入为主。在四季度利率大幅上行后，根据中短端各类券种的性价比进行了调整，增配了性价比较高的6-9个月左右存单和高等级信用债。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.470Z","mo":"基于稳增长的明确诉求，虽然微观主体依然压力重重，我们认为2023年是资产负债表修复的开始，在宏观政策的加持下，企业和居民的资产负债表开始修复。重点关注货币、信用和财政新的组合形态，财政加力提效，政策性金融工具加大融资支持，货币精准有力。预计2023年宽财政和宽信用比2022年更有力度，但是宽货币力度则未必达到今年水平，可能降息周期趋于结束。流动性高于合理充裕的状态会回归合理充裕甚至可能再度收敛，资产荒的结构状态可能也会有所改变。我们将继续寻找受益于经济复苏和信用扩张的标的，债券方面保持短久期和适度的流动性，以争取票息收益为主。","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"上投摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=872581","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb0477462","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"三季度国内宏观经济较二季度有明显改善，但改善的持续性和力度受到挑战。基建方面，受资本金、项目、疫情、天气等影响，实物工作量复工力度较弱；地产方面，销售和土地成交数据在短暂回暖以后继续疲弱；消费方面，受疫情影响，线下消费整体动能不足。但同时我们看到针对性的稳经济措施不断出台，专项基建基金，“保交楼、稳民生”专项借款，消费补贴券，汽车购置税减免等政策措施精准发力，都将成为未来经济增长动力的正拉动方向，从而带来相关行业的投资机会。货币政策方面，MLF和LPR调降也体现了对于经济的呵护。后续需要观察货币财政政策和产业政策叠加作用于经济的效果。海外方面，俄乌冲突继续发酵，叠加极端天气，能源供需状况整体偏紧，其中天然气的供需结构最为紧张。尽管欧洲库存已经累积至较高水平，但俄罗斯管道气的“断供”将使得欧洲天然气供给在较长时间里都处于偏紧的状态。能源相关的行业也仍将是我们关注的主线。债券市场方面，由于信用扩张迟迟没有明显的改善，货币政策不断加码，资金面异常宽松，债券利率水平在三季度整体继续下行，但下行幅度有限，收益率和期限利差已经压缩到历史低位附近。随着政策效力逐步发挥作用，长端利率将面临易上难下的风险。本基金在三季度保持了较短的债券久期，以获取票息收入为主。权益方面依然以政策发力方向和能源电力主线为主要配置方向，逐步降低了前期涨幅较大的新经济方向的标的，并贮备了基建和消费发力相关的标的。展望四季度，我们认为稳增长将继续发力，随着二十大的召开，经济发力的方向将更加明确，同时疫情平复后补偿性增长将得到释放。我们将继续寻找受益于经济复苏和信用扩张的标的，债券方面保持短久期和适度的流动性，以获取稳定的票息收益为主。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.468Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"mgalhbhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20907531","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2516233770,"name":"杨鹏"},{"stockCode":"j101020623","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":324257380,"name":"陈星"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"上投摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=810212","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec8167fea5b3eb0477461","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004738,"sao":"上半年，宏观形势较为复杂。一方面，受疫情反复，国内经济复产节奏相对缓慢。为了对冲疫情的影响，政府出台一系列稳增长措施，对经济基本面形成支撑。基建投资是主要抓手，表现出最强韧性；地产在地方政策放松的背景下在季末边际回暖；在较高的失业率水平、收入增速缓慢和较高居民杠杆率之下，消费恢复相对最慢，呈现出滞后性。另一方面，全球商品供需结构较为紧张，叠加俄乌冲突的影响，资源品价格快速上行，海外通胀压力增大，美联储加息节奏快于预期，经济增长的节奏受到了较大的影响。中美两国经济周期和货币周期表现出分化的情况。在这样的背景下，债券市场表现较为纠结，到期收益率窄幅震荡，以10年期国债到期收益率为例，上半年振幅不足20bp，整体曲线走平。权益市场呈V型走势。能源相关板块表现出明显的超赢。随着复工的恢复和疫情的好转，以汽车、消费等板块表现更为突出。本基金在报告期内保持了较短的债券久期以获得票息收入为主，股票上以能源、电力、电动车产业链和新能源中游制造业为主，增加了低估值的必选消费品行业。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:16:06.465Z","mo":"展望下半年，随着疫情防控态势逐渐向好，经济增长动能逐步恢复。预计稳增长政策持续发力，投资仍将领头带动经济回暖，房地产投资触底反弹方向明确；在十四五重点项目的持续推进和政策性银行新增信贷支持下，基建投资仍保持高增速。同时需要关注消费刺激政策对消费倾向的修复。因此，债券方面我们仍将以持有收益为主。权益方面，我们将重点关注国内财政发力的“新、旧基建”受益方向、必选消费品板块以及科技股自下而上的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000004738,"stockCode":"004738","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":1,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2017-11-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":215221000,"market":"a","tickerId":4738,"custody":"杭州银行股份有限公司","name":"摩根安隆回报混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"摩根安隆回报混合(004738)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":5083,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T19:18:49.171Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2018-02-07T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050380000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"摩根安隆回报混合","pinyin":"m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