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月，各项经济活动逐步在恢复中，各地应对疫情经验有所提高，这使得基建、地产、消费（如汽车购置税减免政策）各项稳增长的政策得以落地推进。本基金上半年重点配置了几个方向，1）生猪养殖；；2）稳增长；3）一季度配置疫情受益必需消费品，并于4月切换到部分疫情受损链条中具有中长期成长性的标的。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.974Z","mo":"展望下半年，在各项稳增长政策落地的情况下，国内宏观经济有较大概率会环比二季度呈现弱复苏趋势，影响复苏节奏的两方面，一是疫情反复情况，二是自上而下稳增长政策是否继续加码。对于疫情反复情况，我们认为在动态清零的总方针下，疫情管理仍是地方政府最重要的考核指标，并且在流行毒株不发生明显变异前，通过上半年地方政府的压力测试后，各地在应对奥密克戎株的水平上都有了比较成熟的摸索和方案，疫情大概率不会再重现上半年的压力，这对于消费和稳增长政策的落地都是比较有利的。二是稳增长政策，目前政策态度仍是把已经出台的政策落实而不是出台更多政策。三季度，我们仍会延续以下几方面思路： 1）对于生猪养殖板块，市场对于猪周期所处的阶段持不同观点，我们认为，从4 月起猪价表现出超预期上涨，特别是进入6 月猪价快速上涨，短期惜售压栏情绪虽然可能会助涨猪价短期表现过高，但根本原因是去产能带来的缺猪驱动，行业中平时所监测的能繁母猪存栏数据可能对实际去产能情况有所低估，因为散户去产能幅度更大，但从统计角度容易被忽视低估，特别是4月起在消费低迷的淡季就出现了超预期上涨，更反映出产能减少的变化。这一轮猪周期虽然比不上非洲猪瘟带来的超级短缺，但也应该是一轮正常的猪周期，加上目前行业成本比之前猪周期有明显抬升，猪价超预期上涨的概率是比较大的。 2）可选消费的修复，我们看到疫情防控措施有所放松，加上经济修复，对于可选消费是比较有利的，这里面包括我们已经有的白酒、啤酒等行业；3）由于猪价超预期上涨，可能对CPI 造成上行风险，这方面的影响我们也会关注；4）稳增长政策发力方向的机会挖掘。在后续的基金运作中，本基金会更加专注在所擅长的消费领域深耕，力求为持有人创造具有风险收益比的投资回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000004505,"stockCode":"004505","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":18,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":207236000,"market":"a","tickerId":4505,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1761,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.820Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合","pinyin":"bsxxxfzthhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801467396","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231925175050,"name":"王诗瑶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=785973","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7f07fea5b3eb047478e","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004505,"sao":"2022年一季度是艰难的一段时间。国内内忧外患，内有新冠疫情奥密克戎株在国内扩散，这一轮的疫情是自2020年初第一轮疫情以来最严重的一次，数个地区再次停摆，并全国多个省区都被牵连，对经济造成了较严重的冲击；外有突发的俄乌战争，国际大宗品价格飙涨，资本市场风险偏好骤降。权益市场也受到波及，年初以来A股和港股大幅下跌。 在2021四季报和年报中，我们提到了对于开年来几条布局思路，生猪养殖为代表的农业、稳增长以及必须消费品和消费电子。在一季度中，我们验证到了生猪养殖去产能持续进行，周期反转逻辑进一步确认，从而重点加大了养殖板块的配置力度，并获得了较好效果；但在稳增长链条，目前尚未见到实质有利的政策推出和落地，顺周期领域需求端恢复尚未兑现，而俄乌冲突大大加剧了制造端的成本压力，使得顺周期板块在一季度表现并不理想；此外，疫情反复也严重影响了居民消费能力和消费意愿，包括消费电子内的消费领域都比较疲软。 展望二季度，我们依旧对国内经济抱有积极心态，两会定调全年GDP5.5%，并且国常会上再次确认了力争完成这个目标，我们认为后续稳增长依旧是全年国内经济发展的主线，并且成本端上涨压力大概率已经充分暴露了，后续还是有希望盈利修复，在这个链条上我们目前仓位暴露较少，后续会继续寻找合适的投资机会增加配置；第二，农业板块依旧是我们今年重点看好的方向，疫情反复导致猪价低迷，粮食价格上涨又推高了饲料成本，养殖环节亏损加剧，各方面都在往有助于去产能的方向发展，我们对生猪养殖行业周期反转更加确信，另外，因为地缘政治问题升级，更加凸显了粮食自主可控的重要性，转基因的推广也是大势所趋，我们对种业转基因推广也抱有积极看法；第三，因为疫情反反复复，疫情受损板块也会呈现震荡走势，在消费环境大势承压的环境中，我们会择机把握疫情受损链条中具有中长期成长性标的的区间机会。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.971Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004505,"stockCode":"004505","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":18,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":207236000,"market":"a","tickerId":4505,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1761,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.820Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合","pinyin":"bsxxxfzthhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801467396","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231925175050,"name":"王诗瑶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=725400","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7f07fea5b3eb047478d","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004505,"sao":"2021年是A股市场表现非常极致的一年，一方面，市场围绕双碳、新型能源呈现出单边上涨行情，另外一边，则是之前以消费为代表的核心资产在经过了几年的估值透支之后，同时遇到了疫情和经济带来的基本面承压的问题，而明显下跌。 2021年我们的基金遇到了前所未有的困难，经历了2016-2020年连续5年的核心资产行情后，消费板块普遍处于估值高位，但由于2020年以来的新冠疫情，在实体经济层面影响首当其冲的就是消费领域，这种负面冲击一方面来自购买力，另一方面来自疫情管控。疫情对于服务业行业影响持续了两年，而服务业吸纳了社会大量就业，对于普通老百姓的购买力产生了很大的影响，表现出整体社零一直低迷起不来，特别是21Q2开始大量消费行业都反馈出销售疲软，以白电为代表，这是直接受制于购买力的；而对于很多零售业态来说，疫情管控的影响也是持续的制约因素，疫情管控影响了出行和人流聚集，商场客流减少、人员流动驱减，疫情管控的影响显而易见。而除此之外，去年大宗品价格暴涨又加剧了消费企业成本端的压力，白电在这方面的影响尤为突出。所以，2021年销售疲软、成本上涨带来了企业基本面的压力，而基本面和估值的背离又直接导致了消费板块单边下跌，全年跌幅靠前的行业中绝大部分都是消费行业。 虽然我们也尝试对基金的配置做了适当均衡，但回顾来看对时点的把握是不太成功的，这里面有主观客观多重因素的影响，但总之结果确实不好，这里对我们的持有人说声抱歉，也谢谢大家的坚守，在新的一年，我们会更加注重把控风险收益比，提高组合的波动控制水平，力争为我们的持有人创造更好的回报。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.968Z","mo":"我们在四季报之中，回顾了近期市场的动态变化情况，2021年四季度，行业间分化巨大，前三季度如火如荼的上游行业转弱，原材料价格压力趋缓，也奠定了中下游盈利改善的基础。另外，因为经济在四季度下行压力加大，房地产严控政策边际趋缓，地产产业链也有所修复；而同时，逆周期的军工、农业等行业也得到资金青睐。 四季报中，我们对2022年有所展望，我们认为稳字是全年的主旋律，虽然在一季度经济下行压力仍然很大，但我们认为后续会陆续出台各种稳增长的措施以实现政府对全年经济的增长区间。我们认为全年维度稳增长领域不乏投资机会，在这方面我们已经有所配置也会继续寻找机会。 此刻，相较我们撰写四季报之后又过去了一个多月，2022年开年的一个多月市场又经历了严苛的考验，我们对于22年预判的稳增长、农业等方向也有幸得到了市场的认可，而我们对于成长行业的判断短期看有些过于乐观。相较一个多月前，我们整体观点变化不大，但也有一些新的思路。我们认为随着特效药获批，后续在疫情管控上面大的方向应该是逐渐放松的，疫情受损链条的修复可能会成为今年除稳增长外的第二主线，后续我们会增加这方面的配置力度，在这条线上我们倾向于选择其中兼具长期成长性和战略优势地位而在过去一两年中又明显受损于疫情、估值也处于合理位置的成长性标的。 我们认为消费系统性机会在下半年会好于上半年，从细分领域我们重点看好三类机会，第一，看好生猪养殖板块周期反转的投资机会，以及转基因推广带来的种业扩容和种子周期反转的机会；第二，消费领域寻找顺周期领域的机会，如地产链条中开工端的投资机会（因竣工端下半年起业绩承压），这其中我们选择了白电和建材龙头，白电龙头去年收入利润两头承压，22年原材料压力有所缓解利润率有望修复，且地产链压力释放估值有望修复，而建材领域的一些龙头企业前期已经充分反应了房地产下行带来的压力，22年又可以明显受益于稳增长措施的发力，业绩、报表、估值都有望修复；第三，必须消费品有望实现困境反转，排序上优于可选消费品，优先选择地位巩固可以顺利传导涨价且估值合理的细分赛道龙头。第四，增配疫情受损链条的优质标的。 虽然成长板块今年遇到了压力，我们整体观点还是没有大的变化，我们依旧认为，消费电子龙头企业在22年有较好的投资机会，智能车、watch功能的不断改进提升、VR/AR的快速发展对消费电子来说是重要的产品创新周期，消费电子中的龙头企业很有可能看到估值和业绩双升的局面。另外，新能源车链条符合本基金投资新兴消费的主旨，我们会不断挖掘机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000004505,"stockCode":"004505","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":18,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":207236000,"market":"a","tickerId":4505,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1761,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.820Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合","pinyin":"bsxxxfzthhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801467396","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231925175050,"name":"王诗瑶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=709628","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7f07fea5b3eb047478c","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004505,"sao":"三季度国内宏观经济延续了二季度的表现，并且受到能源和海运运力双重挤压，加上南京和福建疫情的反复，对整体宏观经济特别是消费领域产生了很大冲击，表现在8月社零同比增速创出了近一年新低，并且我们预估9月消费领域的表现同样不理想。疫情反复是外因，但究其根本原因，经济疲软，特别是持续将近两年的疫情冲击了大量就业，由此造成中低收入群体可支配收入和购买力的下降。展望四季度，经济仍面临较大压力，消费领域也难有明显起色。一方面，我们会增配宏观经济相关度较低的板块，以及一些目前在周期底部未来有望上行的行业和公司，如生猪养殖板块；另一方面，我们将在市场调整的机会中，继续增配未来具有创新力的成长性行业。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.965Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004505,"stockCode":"004505","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":18,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":207236000,"market":"a","tickerId":4505,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1761,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.820Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合","pinyin":"bsxxxfzthhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801467396","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231925175050,"name":"王诗瑶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金2021年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=654376","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7f07fea5b3eb047478b","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000004505,"sao":"二季度以来国内整体宏观经济恢复不及预期，可以明显看到，5月份工业增加值宏观经济数据并不理想，以及因为6月份广东疫情，进出口也受到了负面影响。中国的经济可能还没有恢复到潜在经济增长水平。 二季度消费整体表现疲软，主要原因是中国也表现出了K型复苏，即富裕阶层经过了疫情更加富裕，但中低产收入群体在疫情中是切切实实受损的，一直到2021年5月城镇登记失业率才回到了2019年的水平，普通百姓的收入受到影响，进而也影响了对未来收入的预期，消费倾向减弱，大众消费领域普遍表现低迷。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.962Z","mo":"从市场表现上，二季度以双创为代表的成长风格演绎非常极致，我们认为由于货币政策和风险偏好的变化，三季度这些板块会面临一定压力。我们将在市场调整的机会中，逐渐增加成长性行业的配置，如受益于老龄化的医药以及快速成长的免税等。但另一方面，中国的发展路径可能已经从服务型导向转向了高端制造升级导向，未来具有创新力的行业会获得持久生命力，我们会逐渐增加对这类资产的关注和配置。","fund":{"_id":3000000004505,"stockCode":"004505","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":18,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":207236000,"market":"a","tickerId":4505,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1761,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.820Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合","pinyin":"bsxxxfzthhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801467396","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231925175050,"name":"王诗瑶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=633537","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7f07fea5b3eb047478a","stockId":3000000004505,"sao":"2021年一季度，国内权益市场呈现较大的波动性，加大了组合建仓期运作难度。全球仍在新冠疫情中缓慢恢复，但随着疫苗大范围接种，曙光已现。全球经济复苏预期推升了美债长端收益率和通胀预期，并给持续上行近两年的权益市场造成阶段性压力。总体看，新冠疫情使得国内和海外制造业景气度呈现K型分化，由于疫情导致海外制造业订单回流，中国制造业连续三个季度维持景气高位，中国进出口占全球贸易总额的比例进一步提升。因此，在国内宏观经济向好背景下，国内流动性从2020下半年开始逐步回归至正常水平，应对疫情的特别财政政策也有序退出，体现了中国负责任的金融政策态度。海外方面，西方国家仍未走出新冠疫情，并持续进行货币投放和一系列财政刺激举措，虽然短期一系列居民补贴和公共支出能够托底经济，但将导致政府债务规模快速提升，经济活力受到抑制，美元全球信用受损，经济长期前景并不乐观。因此，我们认为中国权益资产的比较优势将继续凸显，预计境外机构投资者将继续增配A股。同时，虽然一季度市场波动减缓了个人投资者通过公募基金入市节奏，但由于中国居民财富效应的累积，以及对收益率的主观要求，国内机构投资者仍处于快速发展期，并继续深化基本面研究导向、行业龙头投资导向，国内权益市场也将持续呈现出阶段性、结构性的投资机会。在分析和应对宏观经济环境背景下，我们坚持以坚实的产业趋势和个股基本面作为投资依据，主要围绕确定性和成长性两个方向进行动态配置。确定性角度，组合重点配置食品饮料、白色家电等竞争优势凸显的龙头标的；成长性角度，组合将择机增配医疗健康及新兴消费领域的优质公司。组合运作中，我们将坚持长期主义投资理念，通过合理的风险预算约束，努力保持收益的稳定性。展望2021二季度，随着全球新冠疫苗大范围接种，我们预计跨国人员往来将逐步重启，全球经济复苏的曙光已现。一方面，全球总需求将在西方国家经济刺激政策下维持较高水位，无风险收益率和通胀预期仍有上行风险，资产估值模型的分母项仍将承压。另一方面，随着海外企业复工复产，国内与海外制造业景气度的K型分化将逐步收敛，并可能在下半年对国内经济复苏构成挑战，并影响到资产估值模型的分子项。但需要注意到新冠病毒的变异性和复杂性，这将导致全球经济复苏将是反复的、长期的过程。回到国内，随着货币和财政政策逐步回归常态，中国经济进入复苏轨道，但经济复苏的韧性和坚固性仍有待加强。传统产业的转型升级和提质增效，以及高科技自主创新行业的加速成长，是当下国内经济工作的重心所在。我们同时看到，房地产行业“三道红线”和居民房贷政策进一步收紧，有效控制了地产链条的信用创造，标志着中国经济增长模式将开启实质性转变。与国家核心竞争力紧密相关的高科技产业，与居民消费紧密相关的数字经济行业，与人口代际变迁相关的消费升级和医疗养老行业，将逐步成为拉动中国经济增长的新三驾马车。可以预期，中国将在全国大一统内需市场、更高水平对外开放的背景下，最终成功构建双循环的新发展格局。市场层面，二季度我们将积极应对潜在的输入性通胀风险，维持结构性积极看法，坚守长期主义价值观。宏观经济层面，二季度市场将面临资产估值模型分子项盈利增长，分母项估值承压的复杂局面，体现为上市企业的盈利增长和估值收缩并行的局面。因此选股角度，投资标的估值约束将更加严格。行业配置层面，确定性溢价将继续阶段性跑赢成长性溢价，组合也将维持较高仓位配置于高盈利确定性的优质资产。风险角度，无风险收益率的提升、潜在的输入性通胀以及海外市场波动将是我们密切关注的风险点，并提前准备好应对方案。组合应对上，我们目前持仓以消费和制造业优质龙头白马为主，这些标的经过一季度的市场震荡之后，估值已向合理区间进一步回归，在后续市场估值承压的环境中，有望通过业绩增长取得超越市场的回报表现。因此，从整体布局上，我们将继续保持现有持仓机构，在此基础上择机增配医疗和新兴消费领域的优质标的。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.960Z","fund":{"_id":3000000004505,"stockCode":"004505","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":18,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2017-03-20T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":207236000,"market":"a","tickerId":4505,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":1761,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.820Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2017-06-04T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050050000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"博时新兴消费主题混合","pinyin":"bsxxxfzthhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801467396","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":231925175050,"name":"王诗瑶"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"博时新兴消费主题混合型证券投资基金2021年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=572821","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7f07fea5b3eb0474789","stockId":3000000004505,"sao":"股市方面，影响A股的另一要素来自目前整体市场的估值水平，经过连续两年大幅上涨，目前A股整体处于偏高估的状态。而货币政策方面今年大概率趋紧，对于估值方面整体形成压制。因此，应对2021年A股收益率持理性看法，我们的目标是追求一个合理的正收益。在今年的大环境下，我们主要看好两方面的投资机会。一是顺周期特别是出口链条上具备长期竞争力的优质公司，这些公司通过强劲的基本面可以对冲估值向下的压力，大概率获得正收益。二是消费中的高端白酒、白电及医药中能力还在突破能看到天花板提升的龙头企业；在整体估值上涨的背景下，这些公司基本面在2021年呈向上趋势，在货币难进一步宽松的情况下仍有望赚取业绩增长的钱，至少可以通过向上的基本面对冲货币政策转向带来的估值压力。我们在持仓上已作出相应调整，表现在增配了我们看好的消费医药中的核心资产，并继续保留上游顺周期标的中的优质龙头企业。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:15:28.957Z","mo":"股市方面，影响A股的另一要素来自目前整体市场的估值水平，经过连续两年大幅上涨，目前A股整体处于偏高估的状态。而货币政策方面今年大概率趋紧，对于估值方面整体形成压制。因此，应对2021年A股收益率持理性看法，我们的目标是追求一个合理的正收益。在今年的大环境下，我们主要看好两方面的投资机会。一是顺周期特别是出口链条上具备长期竞争力的优质公司，这些公司通过强劲的基本面可以对冲估值向下的压力，大概率获得正收益。二是消费中的高端白酒、白电及医药中能力还在突破能看到天花板提升的龙头企业；在整体估值上涨的背景下，这些公司基本面在2021年呈向上趋势，在货币难进一步宽松的情况下仍有望赚取业绩增长的钱，至少可以通过向上的基本面对冲货币政策转向带来的估值压力。我们在持仓上已作出相应调整，表现在增配了我们看好的消费医药中的核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