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资产的信用利差水平突破2022年第四季度高点。整体而言，当前经济基本面对债市仍有支撑，而且随着存款利率、保险利率等广谱利率的下行，以及信贷和非标供给持续偏弱的局面下，未来资金流入债券市场的趋势还在不断强化。8月份短期震荡后债券市场风险有一定程度释放，在降息背景下，久期可维持中性偏高的水平。不过，后市银行负债压力短期较难改善，资金利率回落幅度有限，杠杆保持偏低水平，同时需警惕中低评级信用债信用利差进一步走阔的风险。可转债方面，6月以来转债由于信用风险事件影响，估值持续压缩。而9月份以来，权益市场持续下跌，但转债指数表现开始好于正股，说明转债的安全边际已开始体现。随着债券市场收益率中枢的下行，当下转债YTM中枢水平已经明显高于同等级信用债，隐含波动率并未创出新低，市场风险偏好处于极低的位置。预计三季度的集中降准降息操作有望一定程度提升市场风险偏好，权益资产及可转债资产整体估值处于低位、赔率较高，可适当乐观。组合三季度维持了中性略偏高的久期和杠杆水平，组合主要参与了政金债的波段交易，同时积极调整信用债、存单资产的杠杆操作。组合未来将继续在市场震荡中灵活调节组合杠杆和久期，如后期收益率上行则考虑适时加信用债杠杆，以促进产品净值稳步增长。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:13:57.381Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003952,"__csrcFundId":1579,"stockCode":"003952","shortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开债券A","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":3952,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.204Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","name":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开","pinyin":"xyjr6gydqkfzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20594300","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1411184320,"name":"倪侃"},{"stockCode":"j101018982","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72510244290,"name":"郭益均"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1174344","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7957fea5b3eb046d7f4","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003952,"sao":"上半年债券市场持续走牛，市场受到政府债供给偏慢、机构需求旺盛、手工补息、风险偏好持续低位等多重因素的影响，利率及信用资产收益率继续下行，各项利差被持续压缩。直至二季度开始，央行拟操作国债买卖后，长端利率的期限利差开始较中短端有所反弹，不过在资金面整体维持宽松态势下，市场配置资金对长久期资产的配置需求始终偏强，使长端资产难以真正意义上反弹，整体各期限收益率仍震荡下行。转债资产方面，二季度受到市场风险偏好下行以及部分小市值转债信用风险重定价的影响，转债部分资产价格有所波动。组合上半年整体维持了偏积极的组合久期水平，组合主要参与了中长期限政金债、地方债及二级资本债等的波段交易，同时积极参与短久期信用债、存单资产的杠杆操作，以促进产品净值稳步增长。组合未来将继续在市场震荡中灵活调节组合杠杆和久期，如后期收益率上行则考虑适时加信用债杠杆，以促进产品净值稳步增长。后市将逐步将部分利率债仓位置换入优质信用债以及绝对价格处于低位的高等级转债资产，继续维持中性略偏高信用债仓位。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:13:57.378Z","mo":"步入7月份后，稳增长预期明显升温，货币政策先发力，各项政策利率先后调降，后续可能财政方面也会相应出台政策。当前基本面方面对债市仍有支撑，不过进入三季度中后期后，政府债净供给压力可能较前7个月有所加大，这对债市或有一定扰动，央行货币政策框架由数量型转向价格型的改进雏形已经搭建完毕，后续对收益率曲线的调控手段将会增强。不过，但经济基本面以及资金价格中枢仍是主导债券走势的核心，在近期完成降息后，市场收益率中枢下移10bp的可能性增加，长端债券仍然具备较高的相对价值。转债方面，市场情绪的修复仍然较大程度受权益市场的影响，整体仓位趋于谨慎。可转债局部信用风险对市场仍有可能造成扰动，但整体上看倾向于认为当前转债已经具备一定的性价比，虽然向上弹性仍不足，但不必过度恐慌。","fund":{"_id":3000000003952,"__csrcFundId":1579,"stockCode":"003952","shortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开债券A","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":3952,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.204Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","name":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开","pinyin":"xyjr6gydqkfzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20594300","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1411184320,"name":"倪侃"},{"stockCode":"j101018982","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72510244290,"name":"郭益均"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1147088","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7957fea5b3eb046d7f3","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003952,"sao":"开年以来，受资产供给偏慢、机构需求旺盛、降息预期、风险对冲等因素影响下，长端利率及信用资产收益率快速下行，曲线持续平坦。短端资产具备较高的配置价值，但受制于政策利率和资金利率的约束，下行空间暂时有限，我们预计曲线在上半年将继续维持平坦化走势，曲线的陡峭化需等待后市MLF降息政策的落地。信用资产来看，一季度信用利差压缩至历史低位，尤其是二级资本债、城投债、产业债等相对有票息价值的资产；当前地方债利差暂未到极值水平，有一定配置价值。预计票息资产供给较少这一逻辑将贯穿全年，故信用利差暂时反弹的空间不大。展望二季度，随着5月份后市场国债和地方债供给的增加、短期经济数据的回升，债市预计进入震荡期。如遇收益率下行，则考虑部分止盈。组合一季度维持了偏高久期和杠杆水平，净值整体稳步增长，组合主要参与了政金债、地方债的波段交易，同时积极参与信用债资产的杠杆操作，以促进产品净值稳步增长。在年初机构较旺盛的配置需求及仍然较少的信用资产供给下，信用类资产将仍有较高的安全边际，整体将对有票息价值的信用债继续维持积极操作。组合未来将继续在市场震荡中灵活调节组合杠杆和久期，如后期收益率上行则考虑适时加杠杆，以促进产品净值稳步增长。后市考虑将部分利率债仓位置换入优质信用债资产，维持中性略偏高信用债仓位。","declarationDate":"2024-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:13:57.375Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003952,"__csrcFundId":1579,"stockCode":"003952","shortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开债券A","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":3952,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.204Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","name":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开","pinyin":"xyjr6gydqkfzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20594300","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1411184320,"name":"倪侃"},{"stockCode":"j101018982","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72510244290,"name":"郭益均"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1072499","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7957fea5b3eb046d7f2","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003952,"sao":"2023年债券市场整体走牛，先后有几轮主线接力：上半年，随着理财子负债端的修复，信用债市场开始迎来超跌反弹。市场在3月份后逐渐对信用债投资开始转入积极策略，开始不断有资金进入信用债市场抄底，增持有票息价值的信用债资产。进入二季度后，国内经济基本面“强预期、弱现实”的局面持续，经济内生性动力不足的局面难以快速扭转，货币政策延续“以我为主”的基调下，市场流动性整体保持合理充裕，使得债券市场继续稳步上涨。三季度地方再融资债的集中发行使得债券市场进入了约2个月的震荡期，资金价格的边际收紧使得利率债、金融债类高等级资产收益率有所反弹。不过进入四季度后，受益于持续较低的通胀数据，资金利率边际转松使得债市情绪相对积极，虽然京沪地产政策放松对债市构成了一定利空，但是流动性的乐观预期使得市场对跨年资金面的担忧有所缓解，特别是存款利率的超预期下调带动了收益曲线的整体下移，长端利率继续围绕基本面定价，信用利差主动收窄明显。组合净值全年稳步增长，整体在信用债投资方面偏积极，尤其上半年赚取了较高的信用票息及信用利差压缩的收益。进入下半年后，在较低信用利差分位数下，组合增持了一定利率债仓位，并赚取了一定的超额收益，后续将继续以高等级优质信用债持仓为主进行配置。","declarationDate":"2024-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:13:57.372Z","mo":"展望未来，目前基本面整体呈现弱复苏，预计流动性将维持一段时期的宽松。在化债行情后信用债市场票息资产稀缺，预计资产荒行情将会延续，为中高等级信用债、利率债资产迎来较好的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000003952,"__csrcFundId":1579,"stockCode":"003952","shortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开债券A","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":3952,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.204Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","name":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开","pinyin":"xyjr6gydqkfzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20594300","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1411184320,"name":"倪侃"},{"stockCode":"j101018982","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72510244290,"name":"郭益均"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1058555","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7957fea5b3eb046d7f1","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003952,"sao":"三季度高频数据显示，季度中后期经济景气度指标、同比数据、价格类数据均企稳，叠加地产政策，预期形成正反馈，从具体分项看：1）地产销售尚未完全企稳，销售端低迷引致投资下行压力较大，地产仍在寻底过程中；2）工业增加值强于预期，同比、环比改善均较为明显；3）固定资产投资三项均不同程度传递乐观信号；4）社零环比折年增速显示回归弱修复路径，总量改善较多，分限上限下看，可能存在一定的消费降级现象；5）失业率呈现季节性回落，整体与往年8月相当。进入9月份后资金价格开始波动，除去季节性因素外，与短期汇率波动压力有一定关系，我们预计短期资金面将维持紧平衡状态，直至汇率压力解除。此外，考虑到10月为缴税大月，流动性存在缺口，超储率偏低环境下，税期波动可能加大，预计后市资金中枢将难回8月低点，预计后市R007大概率在2%上下波动。不过，当前短端NCD定价（接近2.5%）已偏高，相对价值和确定性较高，对于追求绝对收益的资金来说，可以重点配置短端品种。组合三季度维持了在市场震荡中合理调节组合杠杆和久期，如后期收益率下行则考虑适当止盈，以促进产品净值稳步增长。随着资金回流理财子市场，预计四季度流动性将维持稳健，有票息价值资产的配置需求将延续旺盛。后市以信用债基等票息策略产品为主要配置方向，同时择机减持利率债持仓。","declarationDate":"2023-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:13:57.370Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003952,"__csrcFundId":1579,"stockCode":"003952","shortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开债券A","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":3952,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.204Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2017-03-19T16:00:00.000Z","name":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050810000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开","pinyin":"xyjr6gydqkfzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20594300","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1411184320,"name":"倪侃"},{"stockCode":"j101018982","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":72510244290,"name":"郭益均"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=988136","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7957fea5b3eb046d7f0","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003952,"sao":"上半年宏观基本面整体呈现高开低走态势。资本市场在经历了年初前两个月对基本面上行的亢奋期后，自二季度起，高频数据开始显示出一定的下行压力，尤其是在4月份后地产投资和销量数据持续低迷的带动下，国内经济持续呈现“强预期、弱现实”的局面，资本市场开始意识到经济内生性动力不足的局面似乎难以快速扭转，逐步接受了“弱复苏”的现实。上半年大类资产的表现也反应了上述预期变化，在经历了前2个月的股牛债熊之后，自3月份后期开始有明显的大类资产切换迹象。特别是步入4月份信贷增速开始出现放缓信号后，权益市场风格切换频率加快，债券市场开始连续强势走牛至6月份，债市的连续走牛也推动了理财产品净值稳步回升，进而使得理财子负债端开始进入良性循环，理财规模显著修复，信用债买盘自4月份开始持续维持了近一个季度的强劲表现，推动中短端债券收益率不断下行。组合上半年整体维持了积极的杠杆和久期水平，净值整体显著增长。组合于2月下旬开始逆势增持5年以内的中短端信用债资产，在市场收益率震荡过程中逐步抬升了组合杠杆及久期，充分赚取了票息及信用利差压缩的收益，产品净值稳步增长。随着资金持续回流理财子市场，预计三季度流动性将维持稳健偏松，3年内中短端信用债的配置需求将延续旺盛，组合将继续择优质信用债资产加强配置，并择机参与利率债的波段交易。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:13:57.367Z","mo":"整体上看，当前经济仍处于弱复苏状态，基本面内生性动力显不足，但资本市场对政策的预期在加强。以央行二季度货币政策的报告总结：国内经济内生动力还不强，疫情“伤痕效应”尚未完全消退，居民收入预期不稳，青年就业压力较大，消费复苏动能的可持续性面临挑战，政府投资撬动社会投资仍存制约，上述因素影响了需求修复，对经济潜在增速带来压力。近期6月份的高频数据总结：供给端，工业生产边际好转，螺纹钢产量同比跌幅收窄，化工、汽车开工率涨幅扩大，极端天气影响下，煤炭价格上行。需求端，终端需求依旧疲弱，35城地产销量增速持续放缓，车市零售边际走稳。节假日前，消费表现平淡，工业生产边际好转，终端需求依旧疲弱。除此以外，今年是城投债到期高峰期：根据国家开发银行的统计，截至2022年末，我国城投债余额达到约13.8万亿元，2023年到期规模约为3万亿元左右。综合来看，在2023年经济基本面仍然承压、经济转型并不理想、失业率高企、地方债务问题高压的整体局面下，预计货币政策将延续稳健偏松的状态，这对于下半年的金融资产可能仍提供了较好配置机会。我们预计下半年货币政策将延续稳健偏松的状态，10年国债收益率整体上将继续围绕MLF利率上下窄幅波动，市场大概率不会出现如2022年底利率大幅波动的局面。对于权益方面，以史为鉴，当前时点是参与权益市场胜率、赔率都较高的点位。截至6月份的数据，股债收益差又回到了接近-2X标准差的位置，可以说当前权益市场已经较为充分反映了悲观的经济和基本面预期。从历史上看，如政策端出台一定政策，在此股债性价比下，权益市场大概率也会企稳甚至反弹。","fund":{"_id":3000000003952,"__csrcFundId":1579,"stockCode":"003952","shortName":"兴业嘉瑞6个月定开债券A","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":3952,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:41.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