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CPI 同比能回正；2）无风险收益率将继续下降；3）对应对不确定的国际贸易，经济重心将会往自主可控的内需偏移。所以一季度我们的配置主要侧重国内市场，增加了农业和黄金珠宝板块的配置。当时考虑是，在贸易战升级的背景下，自主可控的农业或将获得重估，另外农业板块本身很多子行业都处在去化尾声，农产品价格大概率处在底部区间位置。我们相信国内CPI同比回正的路径应该是从上至下传导来实现的，所以最先收益的应该是上游农产品，比如粮食、肉、蛋奶等价格触底回升。同时，黄金处于大周期的看涨趋势，国潮设计的黄金饰品兼具投资和悦己的情绪消费，属于内需市场增长较快的子板块，同时如果下半年CPI转正，黄金板块也将受益。到4月份贸易摩擦如期兑现，几轮激烈的对等关税增加，给全市场造成大幅波动，尤其是出海产业链。我们认为很多对美出口优质标的被错杀，主要是从根本上我们认为通过关税极限施压就能实现制造业回流的设想过于乐观，相反中国以其成熟和完备产业链为后盾的“出海链”却具有全球竞争优势。在接下来的贸易谈判中，我们相信中国将会处于优势地位。所以，二季度适当加仓了对美出口链标的，并且认为出口链依然是今年下半年及未来的重要投资方向之一。回顾内需市场，消费板块出现了冰火两重天的估值，以情绪消费为主导的新消费，潮玩、美妆护肤、日化用品、小零食、宠物食品等绝对估值水平在历史高位，但走势强劲受市场追捧。家电、白酒、家居等短期增速有压力，绝对估值历史低位水平。我们认为当前的“新消费”受短期消费数据偏好的刺激，投资趋势依然在，但要密切跟踪终端数据，一旦增速环比回落，容易出现杀业绩和杀估值的风险。顺周期的传统消费从2021年后受宏观经济低迷影响，业绩增长出现瓶颈甚至下滑，估值水平回到了历史低位，这些公司现金流都非常好，纷纷加大分红比例，变成了典型的红利资产。我们维持无风险利率将持续下降的判断，所以，虽然当前顺周期消费基本面暂未见好转，但已经极具配置价值，期待下半年海内外同步降息，那么传统消费将有分子和分母端双向叠加的投资机会。","declarationDate":"2025-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.900Z","mo":"相比于2024年国内房价、股价、物价三个价格螺旋负循环的困境，2025年已经从股价开始逐步在解开这一负循环，我们相信解开这关键的一环的第一推动力是对中国经济韧性的信心。在此成果上，当前国内经济最亟待解决的是物价。今年以来，国内供给侧从上游到中游再到下游都在发起降低无序竞争、限制产能扩张、提高经营质量的行动，这是提振物价的重要前提工作。需求侧，我们依然预期积极的财政政策和具有延续性的消费补贴政策。虽然当前依然处在物价攻坚战关口,我们坚信国内一定可以走出通缩，CPI回升的过程，就是传统消费板块低位反转的机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1338243","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640ae","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"基于2024年的多重宏观因素，我们对2025年作了三点基本预判：1）国内CPI同比能回正；2）以十年期美债为代表的无风险收益率会下降；3）对应对不确定的国际贸易，经济重心将会往自主可控的内需偏移。基于这三点预判，我们认为内需在2024年三季度已经见底，2025年的复苏强调和节奏视乎地产行业的改善情况，我们对国内消费板块非常明确的定调为反转。一季度我们的配置还是延续2024年底的配置框架，主要持有白酒、白电、景区、新能源汽车、黄金饰品等，调整的仓位在于：增加了农业和家居板块的配置，主要是我们认为农业板块很多子行业处在去化尾声，农产品价格处在历史底部区间，而国内CPI同比回正的路径很可能是通过从上至下传导来实现的，所以最先受益的应该是上游农产品，比如粮食、肉、蛋奶等价格触底回升。其次，国内将增大内循环力度以应对不确定的贸易摩擦，地产行业大概率会被不遗余力的托起，鼓励终端消费的国补政策也将会超预期延续，当前家居板块细分行业龙头估值便宜，且公司也加大分红力度，我们认为有较好的投资机会。","declarationDate":"2025-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.898Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1265068","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640ad","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"回顾2024年，消费板块仅在一季度有较好表现，但那也是属于2023年超跌反弹的尾声，进入二三季度，由于终端消费数据环比继续走弱，市场对消费的悲观预期进一步加剧，板块在一季度短暂反弹后继续回调，以白酒为代表的食品饮料板块甚至创出年内新低。5月份开始，国内地产政策不断放宽，并且在三季度开始持续推出以旧换新的国补政策，各子板块走势基本由政策预期主导，大致都是有政策的板块快速反弹，然后继续深度回调，如此循环往复。全年表现最好的是“出海链”的大家电、纺织。虽然出海链反复受关税壁垒的影响，但相比疲弱的内需，出海链的增速和未来市场空间明显更具有吸引力。基于此，我们在配置上也做出明显调整，即由内需权重向出海权重倾斜了，但考虑到大国博弈的反复，国际贸易政策的确存在较大不确定性，我们认为当前也不宜在出海链上过分倾斜仓位。与此同时，我们对内需并不如市场悲观，地产下行周期带来的内需不及预期的状况正在发生改变，我们相信国内的托住地产的宏观组合拳随着时间推移将产生效果。今年三季度，全市场出现超预期的大涨，其实就是聪明资本对国内政策大拐点的相信，也是对中国经济基本面将触底回升的相信。再回看我们消费板块，从2021年一季度以来经历了漫长的调整，整个板块估值水平再次回到历史低位水平。低估值和现金流充沛的消费龙头公司纷纷加大回购或分红力度，同时国内无风险利率持续下降，当前消费龙头公司的股息率已经远超国内无风险利率，在此关键节点上不妨稍显乐观去预期，积极去布局内需消费。为规避大幅的波动，我们把投资框架设定在需求端放缓的大背景，布局竞争格局稳健，自由现金流充沛、并愿意大幅提高股东回报的细分行业和公司作为基本盘。弹性方面，主要看“AI+”及出海链。AI 以一种更先进的生产力的方式诞生了，相信不用太长时间，我们能看到很多新的垂直行业应用，以及多模态应用的商业化机会来临，这无疑对消费板块的投资增加了一个亮点，这将是中长期的一个投资主题。出海链方面，虽然欧美受关税等贸易保护主义的困扰，但亚非拉的新兴经济体增速较快，中国企业能够以自己的制造业优势很好地覆盖这些市场。基于此，内需主要持有高端及中低端白酒、景区、酒店、黄金饰品等。出海链，我们主要选择最具有国际竞争力同时对美贸易份额较低的行业，主要是大家电、新能源整车及零部件。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.895Z","mo":"2024年国内宏观经济在内外多重挑战下迎头赶上，房价、股价、物价三个因素螺旋共振，无论是终端消费还是对消费板块估值都是负面影响，展望2025年，我们认为关键要通过积极有效的财政和货币政策解开三个价格螺旋负循环，消费板块才会有真正低位反转的机会。我们基于2024年的一系列宏观组合拳的推出以及在科技领域的突破性进展，我们对2025解开负循环有较乐观的预期。低头看路，也不要忘记仰望星空。悲观的现实已经被我们认识得非常充分了，但也请投资者不要陷入过度悲观的螺旋中。我们应该看到，中国是全世界制造业门类最全的国家，也是世界第一消费市场，在新能源、机器人、电气化、互联网等前沿科技创新及应用已经处于世界前列。2024年底，deepseek中国本土的先进AI算法出现，更是震惊了世界。从一开始的家电、新能源汽车、到珠海航展先进军事成果、到中国IP的游戏《黑神话悟空》、中国IP的电影《哪吒》、再到小红书、乃至deepseek，可以说中国在发达经济体最引以为傲的军事、科技、文化等领域，都保持着绝对的竞争力。这一系列的出现，都值得世界重新估值中国。我们相信，嗅觉灵敏的国际资金也会因为战略格局的变化而持续涌入，这种涌入会是年度级别的，而不只是之前“抄底-跑路”的波段交易。所以，不要辜负每次波动带来的低位机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1246208","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640ac","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"三季度，我们的配置基本延续二季度，即从防御角度持仓更偏向低估值大盘蓝筹，细分板块主要配置白酒、白电、景区、新能源汽车品牌等。由于7-8月终端消费数据环比继续走弱，市场对消费的悲观预期进一步加剧，板块在一季度短暂反弹后继续回调，以白酒为代表的食品饮料板块甚至创出年内新低，终端消费基本面和股价表现在悲观预期里进入螺旋式负循环。但实际上今年5月份以来地产政策不断放宽，比如减少购房者的首付要求，降低住房公积金贷款利率，以及取消首套和二套房商业贷款利率的下限等等，持续的组合拳显示出政府托住房地产市场的坚定决心。我们认为有效阻止地产进入负循环是国内经济复苏是至关重要的一步棋。在此关键节点上不妨稍显乐观去预期，虽然政策效果还需要时间去验证，所以三季度末我们增加了家居和白酒的配置。展望四季度，我们认为宏观预期比板块短期基本面更重要。从基本面看，消费在触底偏左侧的位置，但是宏观预期已经出现了两个积极的变化，首先是美元降息，其次是国内的财政政策可能全面转向，所以配置上不宜再过分悲观。","declarationDate":"2024-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.892Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2024年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1169228","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640ab","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"我们对消费板块一直保持谨慎态度，所以一直保持低于85%的仓位，主要是我们判断分子端终端消费需求因为宏观环境原因将维持低迷，而分母端美债为代表的无风险收益率居高不下，担心过去较高估值的消费板块将进入以时间换空间的消化估值的阵痛期。基于此，我们从2023年二季度开始将组合中高估值的子板块，比如医美护理、调味品、次高端白酒等调出，换成大白电、景区等。配置思路聚焦在稳定现金流+绝对低估值+注重股东回报的细分行业龙头标的。在分子和分母都没有出现拐点式变化的前提下，目前一直保持这一配置思路。回顾2024上半年，基于比较疲弱的终端消费，以及持续未能转正的食品类CPI数据，我们对消费板块保持较为谨慎观点。虽然春节之后消费板块又一波小反弹，我们仅判断为超跌反弹，仓位上一直保持着基金合同要求的最低标准附近。由于内需的疲弱，我们密集调研了一系列出口链公司，得到了较正面的海外订单数据反馈，但对于出海链板块的参与，短期我们依然保持谨慎，主要是考虑到：1）一季度的强劲订单主要是补库需求，到下半年可能较难持续；2)\"逆全球\"化趋势已然抬头，贸易壁垒风险近在眼前。基于此，二季度我们挑选了未来受关税影响可能较小，同时具有全球竞争力的白电龙头和新能源汽车龙头配置。出海链将是消费板块中长期重要的投资方向，但短期我们不得不密切关注贸易壁垒的风险，未来希望能在风险中挖掘到更有性价比的优秀出海标的。经过二季度的调整，目前持仓更趋低估值大盘蓝筹，主要是出于防御思维，也符合我们去年以来一以贯之的投资框架：一是低估值、优质现金流和较高历史分红比例，二是顺应老龄化及国产替代的消费趋势。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.889Z","mo":"当前宏观指标，我们最关注食品类CPI。自2023年7月到今年上半年底，食品类CPI连续同比负增长，我们认为在此宏观大背景下，将持续压制大消费板块的估值水平。宏观数据是基本面的反应，从微观层面的终端消费来看，消费各板块都遇到了需求不足的问题。短期看，这一阵痛期还将持续。鉴于此，在食品类CPI同比转正之前，我们都对消费板块保持谨慎态度。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1142124","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640aa","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"一季度市场出现一定程度的流动性问题，消费板块随着市场贝塔走出了泥沙聚下的行情，板块一度进入持续的负循环。其实，我们从春节的消费数据以及在假期间草根走访的真实感知看，消费的复苏一直在路上，至少是有结构性分化的。其中以基础消费、大众休闲文化消费为代表的消费表现其实可圈可点。近几年春节都是出现了明显的“返乡潮”，带动了当地的聚会宴饮、旅游、观影等大众消费，消费的复苏呈现三四线城市好于一线城市的势头。基于此，我们继续加大了基础大众消费的配置，比如景区和中低端白酒。春节开工后，出口数据一直超预期，我们认为在过去一年因为海外去库存而受损的出口行业有望在今年出现大面积恢复，基于此我们参加了“出口链”的调研，了解到的情况与我们预判基本相符，所以我们也布局了部分出口的消费品，但由于担心后续国际关系导致的贸易摩擦风险，暂时保持着乐观偏谨慎的态度。2月份CPI结束了从去年10月以来的负增长，回到同比+0.7%，虽然依然很弱，但对消费板块估值有提振作用。在今年初CPI转正的同时，各家高端白酒都在纷纷通过提价来挺住价格，我们认为从经营战略上，高端白酒牺牲短期增速来力挺价格大概率是正确的，也是必要的。而由于经历了持续下跌，高端白酒估值水平再次进入历史低位，我们不应低估国内经济韧性，所以一季度加仓了高端白酒。总结一季度的调仓，基本符合我们在2023年基金年报中提出的投资思路，即：在国内宏观经济奋力走出低迷之前，把投资框架设定在需求端放缓的大背景，然后去寻找格局处于改善通道，自由现金流有望改善、并同步注重股东回报的细分行业和公司。虽然当前市场主流声音非常看好“猪周期”的反转，但仔细斟酌，认为当前在行业现金流和财务状况处在危险边缘的情况下去博弈未来猪价大涨，不符合我们当前的投资思路，是以短期我们并不会去做此布局。","declarationDate":"2024-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.887Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1066635","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a9","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"回顾2023年，消费板块仅在一季度有较好表现，但那也是属于2022年第四季度超跌反弹的尾声，当时市场对防疫放开后的2023年消费复苏充满期待，同时在年初也对美元加息提前结束以及以美债为代表的无风险收益率下降有较高预期。虽然我们对一季度整个板块的大幅反弹已经很谨慎并且已经做出相应减仓，但当时也只是认为板块是阶段性调整，在等待消费基本面复苏的确认。彼时，我们认为进入三季度，板块能在调整完后，再由消费复苏基本面确认而驱动继续向上走，但是，整个下半年的表现恰与我们预期恰恰相反。问题出在哪里？消费没有复苏？并不尽然。本着见微知著，2023年我们陆续做了较多调研，根据调研信息和部分消费数据验证，我们认为终端消费情况比起市场极度悲观的情绪要好，至少是有结构性分化。其中以基础消费、大众休闲文化消费为代表的消费表现其实可圈可点，而中档消费的确不及预期。基于此，我们也及时对组合配置作了相应调整，降低了中高档价格带的消费板块，比如免税和医美，增加了基础价格带的消费板块，比如中低端白酒和景区及品牌中药。这些调整事后看是正确的，但是进入四季度末，这些短期基本面有相对优势的子板块并未能幸免于补跌。问题又出在哪？而纵观全年，全市场表现最好的板块无疑是煤炭，而消费板块里是大家电、纺织。这些行业的具有某些共同特点，即行业竞争格局稳定，现金流入稳健且分红率高，绝对估值低，因为市场曾把这一类定义未来成长性不足的行业。尤其是2024开年以来的进步一反差的走势，让我们不得不反省，问题是不是出在我们过去带有肌肉记忆的成长模型框架。一般情况下，当成长型经济体在逐步转向成熟型经济体时，投资框架也相应调整。过去依靠资本开支拉动净利润增长的决策模式可能要逐渐让位于更看重投入产出回报率的决策模式。我们已逐渐感知到，过去两年资本市场的定价机制已悄悄从过去的单纯从净利润单一指标，转向更加看重股东回报的自由现金流。从上述的宏观回到我们消费板块的投资，在国内经济仍处于夯实基础的阶段，至少我们应该把投资框架设定在需求端放缓的大背景里，然后去寻找格局处于改善通道，自由现金流有望改善、股东回报显著改善的细分行业和公司，这可能是未来一段时间内最核心的投资思路。基于此，2024年消费板块的配置，我们偏向于看重股东回报、自由现金流好且绝对估值较低的子板块。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.884Z","mo":"展望2024年，宏观经济将以稳增长为主基调，而消费是拉动GDP增长最重要的一驾马车，故而我们乐观地预计宏观环境将会积极地呵护消费。所以我们对消费的持续复苏并不悲观。而经过的三年的持续调整，消费板块估值具有一定的吸引力，但对竞争壁垒较弱，依靠持续融资推动扩张的板块以及竞争格局趋向恶化的板块保持非常警惕的态度。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1049712","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a8","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"三季度消费板块整体处于继续回调中，各子板块均难幸免，在上半年表现较强的家电和纺织服装也出现了调整，可以说消费板块的投资泛善可陈。今年以来我们持续做了较多草根调研，并且也整理了较多消费终端数据，在不受疫情困扰的大背景下，终端消费是在缓慢复苏的，并且复苏力度是符合我们预期的。市场容易用股价涨跌来推测终端基本面，所以偏向以消费不及预期来解释一切下跌，我们不太接受这种笼统的观点。我们认为终端消费也有结构性分化，其中以大众休闲文化消费为代表的消费表现甚至是超预期的，当然也有不及预期的，那就是中档消费。基于我们感知到的终端消费情况，我们对组合配置也作了相应调整，降低了中高档价格带的消费板块，比如免税和医美，增加了基础价格带的消费板块，比如中低端白酒和景区。养殖行业因为猪价持续低迷再次进入深度亏损，市场主流观点认为深度亏损就会去化，所以可以加仓养殖板块，并且未来出栏成长性越高的越具有行业阿尔法，我们对此主流观点持深度保留意见。在全行业资产负债率极高的背景下，深度亏损、出栏增速以及猪价反转存在不可能三角，所以当前并不考虑再布局。虽然，我们认为消费终端的复苏符合预期，同时也积极看好复苏的持续性，但也不得不面对“为何会下跌？”的灵魂拷问。我们认为主要还是来自分母端无风险收益率的超预期抬升，因为站在年初时点，市场对分母端有较多的期待，但实际上事与愿违。尤其是在国庆节期间，能源价格上涨再叠加最近的巴以冲突，让通胀预期再次抬升，这些将直接影响到市场对分母端的预期，进而继续对国内消费蓝筹的估值水平造成压力。我们认为分母端的问题已经持续了近3年，很多宏观因素可能到了临界点位置。而反观分子端，在消费复苏的大背景下在保持着积极的增长。基于以上分析，我们认为当前就是较好的布局时间窗口。","declarationDate":"2023-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.881Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2023年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=983681","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a7","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"二季度消费板块整体处于继续回调中，各子板块均难幸免，市场较弱。再加上CPI和PPI持续下降，就业数据以及出生人口数据也不太乐观，引发了市场的担忧。与此同时，人民币持续贬值也是消费白马被杀估值的直接宏观因素。站在悲观角度看问题永远都是悲观，但事物发展总存在两面性。所谓穷则变，变则通，极蹇而后成解。本着见微知著，二季度我们做了较多草根调研，并且也整理了较多消费终端数据，我们认为在不受疫情困扰的大背景下，终端消费是在缓慢复苏的。而很多业绩基本面稳健的消费白马股价经历了市场泥沙俱下的“洗礼”，再考虑到今明年的增长，估值又变得更便宜。基于以上，我们在5月份开始逐渐加仓消费，方向主要是在白酒和部分消费医疗。养殖行业因为猪价持续低迷再次进入深度亏损，市场主流观点认为深度亏损就会去化，所以可以加仓养殖板块，并且未来出栏成长性越高的越具有行业阿尔法，我们对此主流观点持深度保留意见。在全行业资产负债率极高的背景下，深度亏损、出栏增速以及猪价反转存在不可能三角，对于股价已反映较多的标的反而认为风险巨大，一季度我们大幅减仓生猪板块，当前暂时并不考虑再布局。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.879Z","mo":"我们对国内终端消费复苏趋势比较有信心，下半年总体情况将好于上半年。同时考虑到上半年人民币贬值，下半年出口将有可能超预期。而在消费和出口都向好的预期下，我们认为人民币汇率下半年将有变化，届时将对消费板块的估值有提振作用。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=957592","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a6","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"消费板块自22年4季度反弹到2023年2月份，基本上把对23年消费复苏的预期提前反应在股价里，甚至已经有些领先基本面了，所以春节后我们将预期反应较充分的白酒和医美个股进行了减仓，整体仓位也随之下降了，短期我们也不会急于将仓位加上去，核心是担心全球通胀有超预期风险从而造成分母端无风险收益率逆势走高进而压制板块估值的风险。同时，我们判断猪价最低点已经过去，随着时间推移猪价将在震荡中逐步抬升，而粮食价格已经从高点缓慢回落，养殖端利润将明显边际好转，所以我们在2月对核心标的进行了逢低加仓，随着能繁母猪去化逐步兑现，板块贝塔行情将启动。一季度末，我们留意到上游大宗价格已经回落较多，过去一年深受原材料成本暴涨困扰的食品制造公司成本压力减缓，年内公司还会有进一步提价的可能性，公司剪刀差利润将出现拐点，我们已经着手布局了部分食品加工制造子板块。概括来说，一季度我们减仓了部分复苏预期反应较充分的标的，布局了将在2季度后可能出现困境反转的生猪、动保以及调整较充分的食品加工板块。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.876Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=881969","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a5","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"2022年留给我们的记忆就是十分艰难，概括起来就是，疫情、战争、通胀和大跌。\"黑天鹅\"事件层出不穷，大多数时候我们都在见证历史，可能这些不寻常本身就昭示着我们已经身处百年未有变局之中。不可抗逆的宏观风险对市场冲击的深度和幅度都超出了想象，相信投资者小伙伴应该和我们有着共情的体会。首先是疫情冲击了消费的需求基本面，然后是战争导致能源等上涨冲击了消费的成本，再叠加全球流动性紧缩冲击了消费的估值水平，在三座大山压力下，消费板块除困境反转主题外其它都乏善可陈。基于艰难的内外部宏观环境以及被疫情限制消费的基本面情况，我们应对的策略是：1）将仓位集中在现金流充沛、抗风险能力强的子板块，白酒和医美；2）布局最可能困境反转的刚需板块养殖；3）适当降低了总仓位。饶是如此，大消费板块依然分别在4月和10月遭遇了信心缺失的重创。也正是基于我们对所配置板块抗风险能力的信心以及对国内疫情终将过去的乐观预期，在市场以及行业遭遇系统性风险大幅下挫时敢于逆势加仓，终于在经历了地狱般黑暗之后在第四季度等到了消费复苏预期的曙光。随着短期消费快速反弹，目前我们更加谨慎了，因为当下反弹幅度明显领先消费基本面了，而消费的持续性有赖于2023复苏的实际情况，我们预计大概率还是弱复苏。另一方面，消费板块估值水平还受到国际宏观因素，尤其是以美债利率为代表的无风险收益影响。基于我们对全球通胀不同于市场一致预期的判断，我们认为2023年就出现宽松政策的可能性很低，是以春节前后我们兑现了部分快速反弹的白酒医美。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.873Z","mo":"首先，二十大会议后国内防疫政策翻开历史性篇章，全国工作重心重新回到经济增长上；其次，国内在疫情达峰后终端消费将逐步进入正常态，失去的消费场景都将逐渐回补。基于以上两点，我们对2023年经济增长以及消费复苏充满信心。证券市场对国内经济基本面改善基本已充分预期，当下市场的反弹热度很大程度也是在体现这种预期。我们认为2023年需要谨慎的是全球宏观风险，目前我们的乐观预期里包含了对美元从紧缩走向宽松，基于我们对通胀问题的不同看法，我们反而认为宽松政策有低于预期的风险。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=864626","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a4","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"今年以来疫情持续反反复复，对终端消费造成了较大影响，消费信心也受到严重打击。进入第三季度，疫情仍在持续，与此同时能源及上游原材料价格依然在高位，使得消费行业利润受到双层夹击，消费板块基本面泛善可陈，故而我们对6-7月份的消费反弹表示谨慎，总体认为是二季度以来的超跌反弹。在终端消费依然低迷基本面情况下，我们认为反弹力度有限，所以对涨幅较大的标的也有所减仓。三季度，美元继续保持较快加息、美债利率快速上升以及人民币贬值等不利宏观因素叠，进一步冲击了消费板块的估值水平，故而第三季度大消费板又进入反弹后的回调，整个板块在单三季度基本为负收益，我们认为很多消费龙头又进入中长期低点，在回调过程中我们集中对高端白酒、免税、医美、乳制品等龙头进行了加仓。三季度生猪价格持续创新高，符合我们的预期，也验证了我们在5月份加仓的逻辑，但考虑到能繁数据在环比提升，在上涨过程中我们逐步降低生猪配置。在消费偏弱的基本面下，我们认为短期较难有趋势性行情，但考虑到板块已经超跌，我们认为板块向下空间并不大。所以短期策略上对超跌的消费龙头加仓，而对短期超涨的标的适当减仓，以谨慎乐观的心态期待消费的复苏。","declarationDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.870Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=803119","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a3","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"一季度末，国内疫情形势忽然转向严峻，终端消费受到了不同程度的冲击。另一方面，随着国际局势的紧张，原油等大宗原材料价格维持高位，这直接给下游消费行业的成本造成巨大压力，消费板块的业绩面临终端需求低迷和上游成本涨价的双向挤，同时市场对疫情的反复悲观预期也进一步压制了整个消费板块的估值水平，板块随疫情的发展进入较深的调整期。5月份随着国内疫情的好转叠加防疫政策的调整，线下活动逐步复苏，终端消费环比好转。所以二季度核心工作是抓反弹，主要是对严重超跌的次高端白酒进行加仓，获得了一定的收益。随着4月份猪价反弹超预期，我们初步判断新的猪周期已经开始，低点就是过去的4月，所以在5月初对回调的生猪进行加仓，进入6月底猪价涨幅超出预期，进一步验证我们的判断。疫情和宏观经济是消费低迷的核心原因，虽然5月以来消费板块有所反弹，幅度甚至略超我们的预期，但我们认为当下消费基本面偏弱，疫情和宏观经济是消费低迷的核心原因，短期或难改善，所以短期消费板块难有趋势性行情，对此我们也降低了反弹幅度较大的标的，再次等待超跌机会。配置上我们主要是两条主线，优选受短期疫情和成本上升影响最小基本面最优的标的，其次是抓困境反转的行业，优选终端提价幅度更大，同时上游成本以开始回落的核心标的。 当下消费板块的核心矛盾是疫情，一方面我们脚踏实地地关注疫情发展动态及可能对消费各板块造成的影响。另一方面也充满信心的仰望星空，我们相信在新防疫政策下疫情对终端消费的影响将逐渐减弱。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.868Z","mo":"预计下半年在新版防疫政策下经济活动将逐步进入正轨，终端消费也将缓慢复苏，而大消费板块经历了大幅回调后有望伴随终端复苏的进度而有所反弹。但考虑到疫情的不可控性，我们对终端的复苏情况偏谨慎，整个消费板块依然面临较负面的贝塔效应，反弹机会可能只能聚焦在基本面有相对优势的个股上。同时，我们认为养殖行业大概率在新一轮上升周期途中，叠加三季度以后季节性的消费旺季，我们认为短期宏观上有CPI较快上行的风险。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=779807","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a2","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"一季度受国内疫情的影响，消费各个行业都不同程度地受到了较大的冲击，悲观的预期也直接反映在了股价上。虽然消费子板块像白酒、医美等预计能录得较优秀的一季报成绩，但是市场显然被更强传播性的奥密克戎疫情蒙上了更悲观预期，认为疫情将会反反复复，而依赖消费场景的终端消费最终会反反复复受到干扰，原本业绩增长稳健的消费板块，变得更不可测，这直接压制了板块的估值水平。同时，受国际局势紧张的影响，原油等大宗原材料价格维持高位，这直接给下游消费行业的成本造成巨大压力。原本在2021年底对2022年消费板块美好展望的两大因素，即：1）疫情将会更稳定；2）消费上游原材料价格将回落，在今年一季度都走向了反方向。故而，整个一季度消费板块乏善可陈。在一季度初，我们对上述不利局面有一定防范，大幅降低了受原材料成本波动较大的消费子行业，增加了不太受成本影响的子行业比如白酒。但进入3月，随着美元快速加息预期的走高，外资集中大幅流出，导致白酒板块在基本面相对较好的情况下也出现了快速下跌，这使得我们的净值在单3月出现了较大回撤。一季度唯一亮点是生猪板块的配置，但行情至此，我们认为生猪养殖的周期底部可能比市场预期更长，从去年三季度以来的板块行情更多偏主题性，谨慎起见，我们在一季度末逐渐降低了生猪板块配置。当下消费板块的核心矛盾是疫情，一方面我们脚踏实地地关注疫情发展动态及可能对消费各板块造成的影响。另一方面我们也充满信心地仰望星空，基于我们国内抗疫的丰富经验及强有力的统筹调配，我们相信疫情将会最快得到有效控制，静待疫情后消费的复苏行情。","declarationDate":"2022-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.865Z","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=723399","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec7107fea5b3eb04640a1","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000003190,"sao":"2021年春节后，大消费板块就开启风雨如晦模式，当时美债利率快速上行、大宗商品价格上涨引发市场对于货币政策收紧的担忧，整个市场几乎出现无差别下跌。直到4月份后，大消费走出独立的下跌行情，而同时成长股新能源、光伏、上游周期等都开始大幅上涨，此后消费和其他板块出现了天差地别的走势。为何大消费会出现较大回撤？主要还是因为过往消费白马们业绩增速稳健，也不乏增速较快的黑马，市场开始线性外推2021年及以后的业绩，高预期持续推高了整个板块的估值，但其实2021年由于疫情的反复以及宏观经济增长压力等多因素造成了终端消费需求疲软，叠加上游原材料价格大幅上涨，双向利空使得板块整体上业绩低于预期。生猪价格在第二季度出现超预期下跌，此后压栏超体重猪加速出栏，但终端消费低迷，进一步加速价格下跌，养殖板块在极短的时间出现巨大亏损，故而板块在上半年也出现较大回撤。我们分析了各细分板块的基本情况，认为虽然消费整体较低迷但也有分化，其中需求端受冲击最大的是以餐饮和旅游为代表的大众消费，而成本端和费用端受影响最大的是家电、食品制造等；但也有表现相对可圈可点的细分行业，比如饮料、烟酒、黄金珠宝、医美等，基本上我们可以概括为高端消费好于大众消费。基于此，我们从二季度开始就降低了大众消费配置而增加高端消费配置，下半年继续保持这种策略。三季度疫情和汛情对终端消费造成了较大冲击，消费零售数据也经历了全年最低谷。我们在最悲观的时候，依然保持对四季度消费复苏的乐观态度。10月份开始，食品类公司开始涨价，成为了消费板块反弹的强效催化剂。同时随着养殖全行业进入深度亏损，能繁母猪进入淘汰阶段，我们认为猪价接近周期底部位置，在三季度逐渐加仓生猪板块。基于以上调整，我们在第四季度获得较好的反弹收益。","declarationDate":"2022-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:11:44.863Z","mo":"展望2022年，宏观经济将以稳增长为主基调，而消费是拉动GDP增长最重要的一架马车，故而我们乐观地预计宏观环境将会积极地呵护消费。行业配置上，我们从长期视角出发，秉持从下至上的选股策略，选择具有相对优势的行业和个股配置。具体到行业上，依然看好白酒、免税、医美等业绩增长较为稳健的标的，同时积极关注困境反转的行业，比如养殖、旅游、食品等细分板块。","fund":{"_id":3000000003190,"stockCode":"003190","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":19,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2016-08-15T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":500714000,"market":"a","tickerId":3190,"custody":"招商银行股份有限公司","name":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"创金合信消费主题股票(003190)","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":662,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:47:52.881Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-08-21T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050990000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"创金合信消费主题股票","pinyin":"cjhxxfztgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101020488","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122508251900,"name":"刘毅恒"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"创金合信消费主题股票型证券投资基金202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