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22年我们也看到了类似的市场现象，这种现象本质上反映的是机构行为的周期性特征，因此2022年我们对机构行为也进行了重点跟踪和研究，把握住了二季度信用利差压缩的交易机会，在赔率极低的区域降低风险敞口，有效规避了四季度信用利差快速走熊的交易风险。","declarationDate":"2023-01-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.452Z","mo":"2022年12月中国防疫政策转向放松是影响A股的重要的政策变化，国内政策红利叠加海外紧缩预期缓和，带来了阶段性市场的走强。展望2023年，美国经济或陷入衰退，资本开支周期和库存周期同步下行，美联储货币政策由鹰转鸽，美元指数回落将推升新兴市场风险偏好；国内经济2022年经历疫情和海外流动性冲击，今年出口周期转负，国内经济恢复依赖内需的全面发力，预期配套相关产业政策会陆续出台，PPI有望企稳回升。预计2023年A股的权益市场机会大于债市，配置方向看好与提振内需相关的产业政策刺激相关方向行业，比如消费医药、科技、新能源相关。站在2023年的起点上，我们认为随着2022年四季度债券市场的调整之后，整体的配置价值尚可，我们需要在较长时间内保持对配置性仓位的重视，对配置性仓位的调整也需要保持较高的灵活性；同时，由于2023年宏观经济向上的方向概率较高，只是幅度不确定，更需要加强对宏观经济、货币政策的预判，防止可能出现的如通胀上行、政策刺激力度过大导致的利率中枢进一步上行，而交易机会仍然可能是较少的，我们需要降低交易性仓位的收益预期。","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=870113","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e4a","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"三季度债券市场机会和风险并存。在央行降息之后，货币政策宽松底线已现，短端利率难以继续大幅下行，同时我们的市场拥挤指标显示市场拥挤度高，更为重要的是市场新增配置力量不足，市场将表现为易跌难涨，因此我们在操作上开始收缩久期和杠杆。随着9月底各类刺激政策出现，预期交易开始出现，债券市场整体利率上行，而我们由于前期保持防守，有效控制了净值回撤。展望四季度，在央行没有明确收紧银行体系流动性和负债可得性之前，债券牛市状态还将继续，我们认为随着市场拥挤度下降，负反馈结束后有波段交易机会，债券市场整体极贵的状态大概率还将保持一段时间。三季度市场延续调整，基本抹平了五月六月的涨幅，结构上看，煤炭、石油石化、综合电力、交运和银行板块，相对调整较少，消费者服务、电子、建材和计算机和锂电、乘用车等调整幅度较大。从国内看，7月受大宗商品价格下跌、房地产等冲击，制造业PMI大幅回落到荣枯线以下，8月24日的国常会提出一揽子稳经济措施，8月9月的经济数据有所好转，但外需偏弱、消费不振，地产市场压力较大，9月底地产政策又密集出台，央行货币政策委员会提出“发挥贷款市场报价利率改革效能和指导作用”、“推动降低个人消费信贷成本”等，但由于全球流动性持续收紧，海外市场波动较大，对国内经济复苏形成挑战。展望四季度，美联储的鹰派可能在年内维持强势，美元压力仍存，国内经济复苏可能更多的要依赖地产政策的实际效果显现才能迎来拐点，观察“二十大”可能出台的政策信号，积极的是A股的主要几个指数均在历史20%分位及以下的水平，我们会随着市场的调整逐步加仓，坚守各个领域优质公司，前期我们逢低加仓了优秀的医药消费公司，随着成长板块的估值压力释放，我们会加大对优秀制造业公司的配置，比如在新能源、汽车、电子半导体等先进制造领域的投资。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.449Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=805270","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e49","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"上半年市场呈现v字型走势，在疫情、俄乌战争和美联储加息的交织下A股调整到4月底才迎来以汽车、电新为首成长股的反弹。我们在一季度主要配置以稳增长的低估值高股息板块，在4月底能够看到部分行业和个股的估值水平已经回到历史上较低分位数，科创板的估值分位几乎接近历史极值水平，权益资产配置的性价比初见端倪，4月底政治局会议释放的呵护信号也给予市场较强信心，我们判断，影响市场风险偏好的内外因素在边际回暖，景气偏好从稳增长逐步会向成长和消费转移，于是我们将权益部分的仓位提升，同时加大对疫后供给端最先恢复的汽车产业链和需求端相对刚性的消费板块的配置，市场连续两个月大幅反弹，反弹力度和幅度超之前预期，我们的产品净值也见底回升。二季度债券市场整体震荡，缺少交易性机会，我们以2年组合久期，辅以杠杆策略来应对。宏观现实、预期更多受到疫情节奏扰动，不过货币政策极度宽松，给予市场较大的支撑空间，因此杠杆策略是我们的首选，由于上半年传统配置型机构配置债券的力度较低，趋势性行情较少，交易盘更多是根据疫情、宏观预期在做存量博弈。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.446Z","mo":"展望三季度，经济修复的重点从生产端逐步转向消费端，但仍需警惕疫情的反复对经济活动带来的影响。海外经济短期面临衰退，刺激出口带来的效果有限且存在较大不确定性，同时基建和地产板块更多的是以盘活稳定基本盘为主，因此刺激消费应该是当前确定性最高的选项，下半年服务消费等需要保持高度关注，布局的重点从之前的偏制造成长和消费逐步切换到大消费主线上。肩负投资者信任，虽然今年市场环境错综复杂，我们对中国的长期经济发展保持乐观，我们将伴随中国具备核心竞争力的优质企业共享中国经济发展和转型的红利机会。展望三季度，债券市场的机会较少，目前估值已不便宜，交易性的赔率只在机构仓位阶段性出清后才会提高，而今年表内资金配置力量并不强，因此市场更多依靠宏观预期或货币政策预期进行交易，交易性仓位适度进行波段交易，同时我们需要更加重视持仓中的配置类资产的性价比，将根据货币市场利率的胜率和赔率状态灵活做调仓。","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundColl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2022年一季度债券市场的胜率短期快速下降至中性，1-2月更多行业状况的数据公布后逐渐修正了市场预期，胜率基本修复到中性偏高位置；而在赔率层面，债券市场整体赔率仍低，随着趋势交易者离场，赔率修复到中性附近。2022年二季度，我们对债券乐观程度提升。债券胜率在提升。经过1-2月宏观状态的修正之后，目前宏观状态又一次增加了疫情这一因素，从我们的跟踪来看，本轮疫情的管控力度趋严对于宏观经济的有一定冲击，对终端消费领域的负面影响较大，而在宏观经济结构的层面，二季度由于海外耐用品库存补足基本结束，届时我们可能还会面临外需最快下降的阶段。因此，二季度货币政策的适当放松可能是必要的。债券赔率在中性。目前趋势交易者空仓观望情绪明显，市场表现为剩余流动性驱动者稳定市场，市场低波动运行的稳定程度较高，因此我们将会左侧适当布局趋势交易头寸博取波段收益。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.443Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=725065","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e47","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"2021年，债券市场开始讨论宏观无用论，我们认为不是宏观对债券定价无效了，而是出现了比宏观经济因素更直接的债券定价影响因素，一是货币政策，二是机构行为。货币政策。在2021年，货币政策目标更多盯住金融领域防风险底线，全年超市场预期的宽松，但工业品通胀水平较高，这在传统宏观-债券分析框架里是一组较大的矛盾，我们看到央行对利率曲线的强大控制力，这种情况下，我们第一步是承认货币政策和宏观经济状态的矛盾，第二步是应对，第三步才是通过研究识别背后的逻辑。机构行为。由于我们的分析框架重点研究投资者行为的周期性特征，我们很快适应了市场结构的变化，也较为准确地理解了周期状态给出的赔率特征，因此每个季度的重点行情都较为准确地识别出机会和风险。全年靠利率债波段策略、曲线定价策略获取了不错的收益。一季度识别出银行欠配，价值型配置者快速入场，我们重点建仓了超长债，二季度识别出趋势交易行情，保持了较高仓位的长久期利率债，三季度识别出拥挤交易，规避了全年最大的调整，四季度再次识别出银行体系加速配置行为，加仓了较高仓位的中久期利率债。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.440Z","mo":"我们对2022年全年的宏观经济状况判断比较中性，地产周期进入衰退，节奏和幅度难以确定，我们会持续关注，出口和制造业链条景气度较高，因此整体经济可能将持续呈现低波动的状况；货币政策在2022年将重点放在稳增长相关的政策上，整体基调是偏宽松，未来也将根据稳增长的节奏灵活调整流动性总闸门；利率运行节奏，大概率仍遵循货币政策周期和机构行为周期的特征，因此我们仍会重点根据市场赔率状态决定利率波段策略、曲线定价策略。","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=714269","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e46","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"三季度，债券市场自身的商业周期已经进入到剩余流动性驱动的行情，特点为宏观胜率已经处于历史较高区间，债券估值会从中性偏贵整体向极贵演进，此阶段机构高仓位运行，高波动高换手，缺少趋势性机会，交易性机会集中在情绪和技术周期范畴。我们在这个阶段，选择剩余流动性驱动周期的合适策略，以较高的仓位和中性偏高的久期来应对。以中性偏高组合票息来保持组合净值的固定收益，不输时间；同时积极调整组合流动性分布，以较为安全的组合流动性状况来应对较低的交易赔率，在估值、仓位极致区域抛出交易性仓位，以防范经济周期的均值回复，不输空间。展望四季度，我们认为宏观的变数比较大，但时间上不确定，货币、财政政策对金融市场的影响将更为直接。我们倾向认为国内货币政策将更多关注宏观经济的“量”，因此以政策利率为核心的公开市场操作将尽可能满足金融机构流动性需求，债券市场的估值-carry交易还将有效，但应该警惕未来某个时间的一个较大的风险：通胀从上游传导到下游的过程，一旦形成全面通胀预期，宏观状态可能进入到“滞涨”的状态，在这个状态下，我们将会对债券部分的组合进一步收缩久期并提高组合流动性。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.435Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=655392","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e45","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"今年过去的时间里，我国无风险利率出现了下行的趋势，要理解今年债券市场行情，重点需要理解央行的行为和商业银行行为。在宏观经济的周期，上半年经济的需求是在阶段性减少的，但并没有出现需求的断崖式下行，这在胜率层面虽然增加了部分做多债券的基础逻辑，但不是今年债券市场的主线；货币政策周期，我们看到央行态度上半年良好，超出市场和我们的预期，事后归因来看，我国核心CPI绝对水平不高是央行不会收紧的一部分原因，而7月超预期的降准，我们理解与解决宏观杠杆率的问题是有很大关系的；债券市场对宏观经济信息反映已经不敏感，更多表达的是机构行为周期的逻辑，我们站在二季度初判断货币政策处于态度阶段性良好状态，市场上行调整的幅度不会很大，本质上市场状态已经给足了赔率，我们也看到银行出现了缺资产的状况，我们观察到价值型配置机构“急迫”地买入债券，本质上是因为银行表内、理财子、保险由于负债压力变小，资产端欠配“高息标准化资产”，因此我们看到2年信用债、3年以内利率最为受益，而10年利率方向交易者相对更谨慎地交易。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.432Z","mo":"我们认为上半年利率趋势交易的赔率较高，胜率略微提升，因此用偏高的仓位参与了利率债波段，而信用债配置方面，以高等级信用债配置为主，我们保持着中性仓位，将组合久期提升到中性，享受到一些骑乘和carry收益，但是我们对于目前债券市场较贵的估值状态、拥挤的市场结构保持谨慎态度，未来将会择机调仓，力求在市场赔率状态适中或偏高的位置继续战术性做多债券。","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=634402","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e44","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"从2020年四季度开始，国内疫情逐步退出，我国货币政策快速回归常态，央行回收大量流动性，宏观经济潜在增速保持在较高水平，但我们已经注意到信贷冲量这一经济增速的领先指标开始出现回落，因此我们认为供需两旺的状态不可长期持续，而在2021年一季度，我们确实看到了宏观经济开始进入正常的周期性运行阶段，一季度货币总量政策整体保持中性偏松的状态，经济总体运行较好，货币条件利于经济增长。债券投资上，春节之前，债券市场一度因为宽松的流动性，出现了一波配置型机构主导的上涨行情，但1月底央行在公开市场和货币市场进行收水，导致银行间资金面收紧，我们考虑货币政策可能出现超预期的收紧，因此减仓了所有利率债，保持了信用债主仓位较低久期，较好规避了春节前的连续杀跌行情；春节之后，我们观察到各类机构的仓位较低，出现了较为少见的一致性看空债市的市场状态，3月债券市场低波动叠加货币市场流动性恢复正常，我们预判宏观状态难以在3月内出现突变，我们判断债券市场将出现跌幅较低、上涨弹性较大的情况，因此我们适度加仓了交易型利率品种、部分配置型的高等级信用债，操作效果较好。未来，除非经济出现超周期性过热、物价进入趋势性上涨阶段，否则货币政策大概率不会进一步大幅收紧流动性，我国央行将根据国内经济、货币条件的状态阶段性进行收紧或放松，因此我们判断货币市场将保持中枢稳定的状态，我们也将把纯债策略操作周期提高到月频、周频，更多通过机构行为、估值变动逻辑、市场状态分析，挖掘更高置信度的利率、信用交易策略。股票投资上，整体配置策略没有发生重大的变化，依然从稳健性的角度出发。在前期配置中，由于部分龙头公司和行业在估值上有一些高涨和局部的泡沫，我们的应对措施是在组合中相应配置了一些中长期稳健成长，同时估值偏低的个股和板块，包括一些顺周期板块。从运行结果来看，在一季度取得一定的对冲效果。从配置上，目前增加整体的均衡性，包括行业、估值的平衡性。我们认为经历了一季度的调整，整个市场的估值体系得到了一次再平衡，目前整体的估值梯队相比之前更加合理，但是否在部分层面仍然还有泡沫，这我们认为很难理清，所以我们目前相对淡化风格、交易等方面的因素，认为回归到基本面和估值匹配的具有中长期前景的公司，是目前我们相对能做到的最优状态。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.429Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=573955","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e43","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"2020年债券市场收益率先下后上，在2季度末开始进入熊市。由于年初爆发的新冠疫情，对国内生产和消费带来了脉冲式影响，货币政策转向宽松，通过逆回购、降低准备金率、再贷款等方式投放大量基础货币，并调低了逆回购、MLF等公开市场操作利率，流动性非常充裕，债券市场在1季度迎来了大牛市，主要品种收益率创出了新低。但是随着国内疫情逐步控制，复工进程加快，国内经济下行的压力有所收敛，3月9日习主席去疫情最早爆发地武汉视察，标志国内疫情防控取得阶段性胜利，债券收益率出现了回调；但是3月份开始疫情开始在海外扩散，到3月底，为了应对出口的不确定性，国内宏观政策进一步放松，货币端调低了超额准备金利率，财政端增发了特别国债，并扩大了地方专项债的规模，4月份在流动性充裕及市场宽松预期推动下，收益率继续下行。但进入5月，货币政策并未如市场预期进一步放松，反倒由于政府证券的集中发行，上收了流动性，同时由于海外复工不及预期，对我国出口带来了支撑，外需并未出现市场担忧的急剧恶化，收益率开始回调，到6月份确认宽松货币政策退出，收益率在3季度大幅走熊。 进入4季度，部分信用债发行主体出现了信用违约事件，尤其是永煤事件在11月初爆发，引发了市场对地方政府对弱资质国企偿债意愿的担忧，部分债券基金遭遇了赎回，进而引发债券市场的流动性风险，债券收益率再次出现了大幅调整，11月下旬金穏委开会稳定了市场预期，央行也在公开市场释放了缓和的信号，收益率从11月底开始修复，直至年底。与此同时，在宏观趋势之外，我们在研究当中加入了较多的机构行为分析，19年以来，基金负债端被银行资金表外化行为占据，该行为一方面增强了传统配置资金的交易属性，另一方面由于有大量摊余成本法债基，也加强了债券基金的负债端，在此情况下，我们在投资中更加注重基金的仓位情况与银行的季节性行为。报告期内，年初判断疫情类比03年非典的冲击，果断提高了组合久期，提高了长端利率债的持仓占比；3月初国内复工进程加快后，获利了结了组合中的长久期债券品种，4月份债券收益创新低后，判断久期的性价比下降后，但不确定市场的拐点，在资金宽松背景下，仅通过短久期信用债加杠杆提高了组合的仓位，并未牺牲组合的流动性；5月底，担忧香港立法问题带来避险情绪的上升，会促使长端利率下行，博弈了部分利率债仓位，但是6月初市场并未为此定价，变现了利率债的仓位；在6月份确认央行转向后，大幅降低了组合的杠杆和仓位，规避了3季度的大幅回撤；4季度为了应对潜在信用风险，调整了组合隐含评级的信用债，对组合带了一定的冲击成本，永煤事件后判断收益率超调，在央行态度缓和后，重新加仓了利率债和长久期信用债，提高了组合的杠杆和久期。整体在控制风险的前提下，获得与风险相匹配的持有期收益。从稳健性的角度出发，权益部分的配置上注重公司的中长期价值和稳健性，以行业龙头公司为主，行业上分散配置对冲风险。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.427Z","mo":"展望2021年，宏观基本面趋势确定性向上，市场关心的信用拐点、出口份额下降，在上半年对宏观经济不会形成实质性的拖累，但是PPI趋势向上，尤其是主要生产国的产能偏紧，需求边际上的刺激，对价格都产生较大的压力；在PPI环比持续改善的环境下，央行的货币政策放松的概率偏低。PPI环比持续改善对债券市场方向仍然不利，从估值角度看，经历2020年11-12月份收益率的下行，估值保护逐步弱化，后续收益率有震荡上行的压力。但是类比过去13年和17年的债券熊市而言，21年调整压力要明显小于过去两轮，因为本轮货币政策收紧更早，在2020年3季度已经明确收紧，且收益率出现了大幅的调整，后续货币政策整体基调是“不缺不溢”，尚看不到加息的迹象，债券市场仍有票息价值。 另一方面，银行依然主导基金的负债端，在21年当中，机构行为分析仍会成为影响债券中短周期波动的主要因素。对于2021年我们认为经济仍然具备向上动力，而流动性方面存在一些波动的可能，同时全球在疫后刺激政策的退出成为未来影响资本市场的重要因素，而目前市场的估值也出现了一些结构性分化。我们认为更需要从稳健性和估值水平进行考量，在配置上注重合理估值并且更加稳健的标的，控制下行风险，力争获取稳健合理的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=558150","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e42","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"本季度，疫情后经济恢复势头良好，货币政策再回复常态后保持偏中性水平，在此环境下，我们将组合久期放在相对较低位置，同时长端根据机构行为变化采取波段操作思路。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.424Z","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=492275","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6687fea5b3eb0457e41","stockId":3000000002388,"sao":"上半年，纯债市场波动较大，一季度，由于疫情爆发，货币政策进行了较大的对冲，收益率全线下行，我们在操作上也较早的提升了组合杠杆和久期。五月市场开始出现回调，其最主要原因在于货币政策从非常时期的宽松状态退出，经济方面，国内复工良好，内外需都较为稳定，也给货币政策恢复常态提供了支持。另一方面，4月债市火热程度达到高峰，市场预期十分一致，我们从检测的市场拥挤指标判断市场已经到了极端水平，从而进行了部分减仓操作。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:08:56.421Z","mo":"对于下半年的展望方面，我们认为，当前货币政策阶段性收紧已经结束，银行间资金利率水平已经回到政策利率水平附近，在这个水平上，央行也可以较为灵活的展开货币政策调整，同时在疫情后经济尚未完全恢复叠加海外不确定因素较多情况下，进一步大幅收紧货币政策可能性较小。另一方面，经历了两个多月的回调，债市机构整体仓位较轻，进一步下跌空间有限，但在当前宏观经济抬升的大趋势下，债市也难有趋势性机会，更多或以结构性机会和交易性机会为主。","fund":{"_id":3000000002388,"stockCode":"002388","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":5,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2016-01-25T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200058000,"market":"a","tickerId":2388,"custody":"中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司","name":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"天弘裕利A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":4428,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-12-31T23:39:39.270Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2016-01-28T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050430000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"天弘裕利混合","pinyin":"thyllhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20891745","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":313220480,"name":"陈敏"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"天弘裕利灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=461838","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}