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A股大幅下行。二月份，国内股票市场在有关政策的引导下终结了市场交易的负向循环，A股持续企稳回升。在A股持续回升过程中，现金流稳定、股息率较高的标的和主题投资相关标的表现最好。行业方面，长期资本开支低、未来有一定供给缺口、且商品价格受益于国际市场强需求支撑的上游能源和金属表现最为突出，同时受益于出口增长、业绩表现亮眼的家电和报表稳定性强、股息率较高的银行表现较好。　　二季度经济恢复动能边际走弱，修复的不均衡性仍较为突出。制造业投资和出口表现仍具韧性，其中资本品出口表现突出。但房价持续下行,房地产投资持续低迷，地方化债不断推进,基建增速逐步放缓，消费恢复较为疲软。总体CPI大致稳定，但核心CPI仍在下行，PPI持续低迷。金融数据5、6月份压力较大，工业企业利润增速下滑。二季度股票市场表现较好的主要是高股息相关行业如银行、电力、交运、煤炭，表现较差的行业主要是内需消费、地产、传媒和计算机。　　操作方面，主要增持家电、化工、地产，减持电子、计算机、非银。","declarationDate":"2024-07-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.618Z","mo":"经济增长方面，国内经济当前仍然处在底部震荡的状态，生产端强度有所减弱，消费修复较为疲弱，地产投资仍在收缩过程中，但出口依然保持韧性。经济增长的自然修复可能需要更长的时间。通货膨胀方面，国内需求较为疲弱，在消费修复节奏较为滞后和中下游产能利用率偏低的背景下，CPI和PPI上行压力有限。流动性方面，在监管政策打击空转的背景下，金融数据和M1增速受到较大影响。监管的影响预计将持续一段时间，后续社融大概率将回到偏弱但下行有底的轨道上来。企业盈利方面，企业营收和盈利增速仍在下行，后续观察非金融非上游企业的盈利能力的修复情况。估值方面，当前A股估值处于较为合理位置，进一步估值压缩的空间相对有限。政策方面，4月底以来房地产政策态度和落地细则发生了明显调整，预示着未来政策框架可能会发生更积极的变化，对经济增长预期的修复起到一定的正向作用，但仍需观察后续的政策加码落地情况。　　展望未来，市场下行风险相对可控，但上行仍具不确定性，取决于对地产、消费和出口等方面的预期变化，企业经营的改善仍然存在不确定性，也需要时间。在降低预期的情况下，估值的进一步大幅压缩空间不大，市场下行的风险相对可控。在下行有底、上行不确定的环境下，市场仍然以结构性机会为主。","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1148113","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccb8","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"回顾一季度，国内经济在地产和基建承压的情况下依然保持了较强的韧性：生产端改善明显，PMI和工业增加值表现较强；消费端保持平稳；出口端保持了较快的增速；地产二手房销售有所改善，但新房销售依然承压。海外美国经济表现超出预期，人民币汇率保持平稳。期间国内A股市场经历了大幅波动：一月份，市场对于经济的预期过于悲观，雪球产品和量化杠杆产品陆续发生强平，在这种状况下市场发生了小微盘股的流动性危机，A股大幅下行；二月份以来，国内权益市场在政策的支持下终结了市场交易的负向循环，A股持续企稳回升，现金流稳定、股息率较高的标的和主题投资相关标的表现最好。行业表现方面，长期资本开支不足、未来存在一定供给缺口、且商品价格韧性较强的上游能源和金属表现最为突出，同时，受益于出口增长、业绩表现亮眼的家电和报表稳定性强、股息率较高的银行表现较好。　　展望未来，尽管新房销售依然疲弱，但近期的经济数据有所回暖，未来重点关注国内非地产相关的内需恢复情况和价格水平的修复情况。从已经披露的年报看，企业营收依然承压但盈利状况有小幅改善。我们倾向于认为，地产下行对国内经济冲击最大的时刻或已经过去，未来随着企业管理水平的提高，企业盈利有望在2024年见底回升。考虑到当期A股整体估值依然处于较低的位置，未来市场有望在盈利增长驱动下缓慢但持续地回升　　操作方面，一季度加仓煤炭、有色、化工，减仓电子、计算机、非银。","declarationDate":"2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.615Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2024年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1076556","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccb7","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"一季度，市场对于国内外经济的预期波动较大，这种宏观预期的大幅摆动，给市场带来了巨大的波动。二、三季度，国内经济复苏力度持续低于市场预期，经济复苏相关产业链表现较弱，主要受需求不振的影响。地产方面，新房销售不佳，土地市场表现低迷，成交集中于头部城市，新开工持续放缓，保交楼进度慢于预期。基建方面，受限于地方政府财力，基建增速放缓。制造业投资增速持续放缓，出口端在高基数下表现尚可。流动性方面相对宽松，信贷需求较为低迷。通胀方面，物价向上压力有限。四季度，经济增长符合预期，政策持续发力，但政策效果的显现仍需一定时间。经济运行仍然呈现生产强、需求偏弱的特征。基建和地产投资分别受制于地方财政压力和房价下行压力表现疲弱，消费增长动能较弱。一线城市核心区域房价的快速下行给资产价格带来了较大的调整压力。　　操作方面，主要增持计算机、非银、煤炭，减持电力设备、汽车、食品饮料。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.612Z","mo":"国内经济当前仍在修复过程中，尽管修复速度略低于市场预期。整体经济运行呈现生产强、需求偏弱的特征，制造业投资保持韧性。市场对于基建和地产投资表现疲弱、消费增长动能不足已经有较为充分的预期，实际经济增速存在略好于预期的可能。国内需求较为疲弱，CPI和PPI上行压力不大。市场更为关心国内CPI负增长能否结束，PPI由于基数原因有望收窄。国内流动性处于较为宽松的环境中，LPR、存款基准利率连续调降，但维持汇率稳定的压力依旧存在，未来需要观察央行在内部和外部均衡方面的取舍。企业盈利增速仍在下行，2024年随着政策的进一步发力和企业经营预期的调整，企业有望降本控费增效，企业盈利增速有望筑底回升。静态来看，当前市场估值处于历史低位，部分大盘股股息率相对长期国债利率已经具备较高的吸引力，存在估值修复的可能性。动态来看，市场对于上市公司企业盈利增长何时企稳仍有疑问，国内依旧存在的内生增长动力不足和地产价格下行的压力也使估值修复的窗口后推。政策端，一方面财政端发力支撑经济增长，特别国债、地方政府长期债务新增发行，PSL也有所预期；另一方面做结构性调整，强化地方政府财政纪律、地方债务化解、盘活信贷存量等。考虑到政策的影响并非完全是逆周期导向，我们将更为关注结构性的影响。海外方面，美国经济最近韧性较强，通胀有所回落，但平均时薪仍有上升。在美联储跟随数据进行政策判断的框架下，由于当前经济数据指向不一，降息的时点、节奏和力度仍待观察。海外对国内的影响，可能还将延续经常账户端有韧性，但资本账户端有压力的情况。　　展望后市，我们认为权益市场处于相对较低位置，未来存在较大修复机会。市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相对有限。但本轮市场底部与过往几轮市场底部最大的不同在于内部估值水平的严重分化和中美经济周期大幅错配，风险释放较为充分但修复的道路会较为曲折。组合倾向于保持均衡配置，一方面配置相对低估值、高股息的品种，估值修复的可能性较高；另一方面保持对于高成长、高景气行业中竞争优势较为明显的标的配置，未来将在竞争格局从分散到集中的过程中争取受益。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.598Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=808683","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccb1","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"2022年开年以来，在稳增长政策的支撑下，1-2月经济数据表现良好，经济显现出触底回升迹象，市场对于2021年底中央经济工作会议的稳增长表述抱有较为乐观的预期。但3月份的俄乌冲突导致通胀上行和地缘冲突担忧上升；叠加国内局部地区的疫情发展，给一季度的经济增长带来一定的负面影响。直至此时，市场仍对经济基本面、疫情防控和稳增长政策抱有较强的信心。二季度，由于国内部分城市疫情的冲击超出预期，经济基本面受到了较大影响，部分产业如汽车、半导体等供应链流通出现中断风险，稳增长政策落地进度低于预期，原本低基数效应下的恢复预期落空，“三重压力”不仅没有减弱反而更趋严重。地产销售和消费数据大幅下滑，市场对于需求端的担忧逐步抬头。5月下旬以来，随着疫情防控政策优化、稳增长政策加力推进、流动性环境更为宽松、海外衰退预期下商品价格出现回调，经济数据开始逐步改善，二季度经济增长大概率看到了底部，此后有望处于逐步恢复的过程中。  市场表现来看，年初市场受到美联储加息预期上升的影响，交易拥挤度较高的赛道行业受到较大影响，带动大盘下行；但稳增长政策的乐观预期下，部分行业如建筑、地产等表现较好；同时供给端较为紧张的煤炭行业表现也较好。俄乌冲突后，受到通胀上行和地缘冲突担忧影响，外资流出的压力加大，市场出现较大幅度的下跌。随着金稳委会议对于经济形势、房地产、中概股、平台和行业监管等多个市场关心的问题进行表态，市场企稳反弹。进入4月份，国内局部地区疫情冲击超出预期，汽车、半导体供应链大受影响，同时物流也受到较大幅度的影响，市场对于经济基本面的预期转向悲观，市场加速下行。5月份之后，随着复工复产持续推进、疫情防控政策逐渐优化、流动性环境进一步宽松，市场信心开始恢复。6月份，光伏行业需求旺盛，新能源汽车销量高增，地产销售和消费数据有所改善，市场持续上行。  操作方面，基金上半年总体加仓煤炭、医药、非银，减仓通信、电力设备、银行。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.594Z","mo":"当前市场已经回补疫情冲击带来的跌幅，后续行情的发展主要依赖于经济实际复苏的情况。往后看，第一，政策端有望保持一定的支持力度，同时稳定性预计有所增强，有利于经济复苏；第二，在疫情得到控制、防疫措施进一步优化后，预计经济存在自然修复的动能；第三，行业监管已经取得一定成效，预计未来可以形成稳定的监管框架，给企业带来稳定的经营环境，有助于企业发展。总体上看，下半年经济具备继续恢复的条件，企业盈利也将有所改善。  但相比于过往，经济恢复过程中的潜在不确定性依然较大。一是美联储持续加息下海外需求的回落尚未到来；二是国内下半年CPI上行的压力或将还在途中；三是地产行业供给侧的调整并不明朗。其中，特别值得关注的是地产行业，其结构性调整落后于预期，无论行业的并购整合，还是新模式如Reits的推出，均进展缓慢，反映出地产行业调整的复杂性超出此前市场的乐观想象。目前看，地产行业从高杠杆、高负债模式调整到新的稳定模式可能需要很长的时间。考虑到地产行业链条长、影响广，在地产行业供给侧的问题清晰化之前，大概率会对经济复苏的高度造成一定压力，国内经济的修复更有可能是一个弱复苏的过程。另一方面，美国控通胀背景下，美国经济软着陆或非大概率事件，这意味着中国经济面临的外部环境恶化的潜在风险依然较高。  在国内弱复苏、海外经济潜在回落压力大的环境下，预计市场还将维持高波动性的特征，整体可能呈现震荡格局。由于此前的悲观预期已经得到修复，考虑到短端利率已经很低，流动性进一步宽松的可能性有限，估值系统性提升的机会也有限。未来市场上行的主要驱动力将由流动性转为基本面改善。由于在美联储的持续加息下海外需求端回落是大概率事件，而国内由于地产行业的结构性问题，需求端的大幅改善难度较大，预计国内企业盈利下半年无法复制2020年疫情后的修复路径，更有可能体现为有限幅度的改善。","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=784518","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccb0","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"今年以来，在需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力之外，美联储超预期政策收紧、俄罗斯乌克兰冲突带来的地缘政治风险以及能源和食品通胀压力、国内奥米克戎疫情防控压力增大，三个因素叠加给国内经济基本面和市场预期带来较大的负面影响。可以看到，短期国内经济增长压力较大，多项经济数据表现疲弱，地产销售、公路运输、公共出行、电影票房均出现了较大幅度的下滑。流动性方面，国内保持了较为宽松的流动性环境，但信贷需求的改善仍需观察；美国十年期国债收益率快速提升，中美利差大为缩窄，限制了国内货币政策进一步放松的潜在空间。通胀方面，俄乌冲突以及后续的制裁和反制裁措施给全球能源和食品供应链造成冲击，长期通胀预期有所提升。总体来看，一季度经济基本面面临较大压力。  市场表现方面，一季度A股市场在持续下行过程中，市场交易结构自身存在的问题加剧了下行风险，部分行业配置较为集中和绝对收益类产品持续平仓加快了市场下行的速度，到3月中旬市场情绪趋于极度悲观，对中概股退市观察名单和医疗服务行业的监管征求意见做出了较为剧烈的反应，直到金稳委讲话后逐渐缓解。应对操作上，考虑到俄乌冲突持续带来的通胀上行压力，适度加仓煤炭、有色；从市场不确定性加大、增加低估值资产占比角度，增配非银；医药行业优质标的前期回落幅度较大，长期看可提供较为可观回报，增配医药优秀标的；在看好行业长期发展的前提下，由于过去两年来涨幅较大，适度兑现新能源汽车、光伏产业链收益，减仓基础化工；疫情开支带来基建落地延后，适度减持建材。往后看，当前市场的大环境仍处于国内稳增长、海外控通胀的格局下，俄乌冲突暂时性打破了旧有的平衡，通胀压力大增，避险情绪升温，同时双方制裁的螺旋升级，也加剧了金融、能源和供应链安排的扰动。短期内市场可能仍处于震荡之中。但从全年来看，我们仍保持谨慎乐观的态度，一是医药、消费等行业优秀企业的估值已经回到了当年或者明年可见的位置，配置价值是存在的；二是5.5%的高政策目标不应忽视，稳增长政策有望持续加力，后续可关注政策的进一步动作。后续配置思路如下：一、对于当前持仓较高的新能源、电子等行业做一定的持仓优化；二、精选标的，向消费、医药行业的优秀公司做一定的均衡化配置；三、在外需潜在压力大、内部政策放松预期提升的情况下，适度增配稳增长行业标的；四、寻找一部分年报一季报增长较好、业绩具备持续性的低关注度标的。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.591Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=726947","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccaf","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"回顾过去的一年，疫情总体可控，企业盈利恢复性增长，流动性环境并未收紧，股票市场总体呈现震荡格局，上证指数在3350-3730之间徘徊，但行业间表现分化巨大。受益于双碳目标和能耗双控的能源转型行业，如光伏、新能源车、电网投资表现极其突出，而受疫情和居民收入增速放缓影响较大的消费和受地产调控政策影响较大的地产产业链则表现不佳。","declarationDate":"2022-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.588Z","mo":"展望2022年， 经济增长仍然面临较大下行压力，但稳增长政策发力预期较为明确，政策落地的节奏还存在不确定性。全年来看，经济增速仍有望保持5%以上的增长，上市公司盈利有望保持高个位数增长。除稳增长政策外，2022年政策环境有望保持稳定，给企业带来更为稳定的营商环境，降低企业经营和市场预期的不确定性，有助于企业盈利恢复。在稳增长政策明确的前提下，流动性环境大概率整体保持宽松，期间可能会受到海外政策收紧的扰动。总体来看，市场向下风险相对有限，向上受到稳增长政策发力节奏和政策传导效率影响，空间存在不确定性。结构上，我们认为整体仍然是机会大于风险，重点关注三个方向：一是长期成长赛道，经历了2021年的成长股重估之后，长期成长赛道标的估值普遍不便宜，未来或出现分化，配置上向产业链中相对受益且业绩能够兑现的标的集中；二是稳增长政策直接受益的行业，筛选地产产业链中既受益于短期政策提振又存在较强竞争优势的公司；三是受益于稳增长政策传导的行业，居民收入随稳增长政策落地而改善，居民消费随之受益。","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=709938","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccae","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"三季度经济增长持续放缓，四季度存在进一步下行的压力：地产销售降温较快，叠加恒大信用事件，可能对后续地产投资造成影响；基建投资预计仍受资金制约，尽管近期地方政府专项债发行加速，但项目落地仍有时滞；消费大概率持续低迷，疫情对于居民收入的负面影响正在缓慢释放；出口数据有望较为坚挺，但高基数的压力可能逐渐体现。需求端下行的压力较为明显。但本轮经济周期，供应端与以往不同，原材料受能耗双控限产制约、能源受全球性供应紧张影响，成本并未随需求转弱下降，而是呈现较为刚性的特征。反映到企业盈利上，预期盈利增长将面临较大的压力。但流动性环境总体有望仍然偏宽松，同时稳增长托底政策预计后续将加码，经济失速的风险有限，但政策落地的节奏也给市场带来了较大的不确定性。估值方面，部分热门赛道存在预期饱满、兑现收益的压力，但我们认为消费、金融等权重行业估值仍处于合理偏低的位置，下行风险有限；只是行业数据目前还看不到改善，单纯低估值修复的空间难以做过高展望。预计外资流出压力不大，人民币汇率保持稳定。总体上看，市场四季度下行风险有限，但向上动力不足，还需要观察具体政策力度和落地节奏。操作上，四季度倾向于均衡配置，精选具备长期成长空间赛道的优质标的，保留部分供需缺口较大周期行业的配置，同时适度增配低估值行业。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.585Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=655952","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccad","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"回顾上半年，疫苗接种率快速提升，出口保持强劲，经济表现超出市场此前预期；货币政策保持中性，市场总体流动性并未收紧，系统性风险有限。股票市场整体呈现宽幅震荡格局，一季度大幅调整后，二季度随着通胀担忧的消散企稳回升。但估值分化并未继续收窄，反而在部分热点行业和个股进一步加大。  操作上，上半年主要增持化工、机械、电力设备，减持有色、军工。","declarationDate":"2021-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.583Z","mo":"展望下半年，我们认为，增长压力或将逐渐显现，但骤然回落的可能性较低。地产端存在回落压力；基建端随着专项债发行节奏加快有望适度支撑；出口端存在海外供应恢复的压力，但节奏上仍受海外疫情波动的影响；消费端在政策环境的调整下，仍将保持持续恢复的状态。央行全面降准，流动性环境在方向上将比此前市场预期的更加友好，系统性风险不大。受制于盈利和估值的匹配度要求，市场热门赛道将进一步面临震荡分化，投资难度加大。我们将重点做三方面的准备：一是对于长期成长赛道标的，在短期基本面波动对于行业长期发展逻辑影响有限、股价由于隐含预期较高从而波动较大的情况下，做好逆市场预期波动调节的准备；二是寻找聚光灯之外的具备一定阶段性成长属性的细分赛道标的，如生产性服务业、传统行业的设备升级和智能化等；三是注意挖掘中报高增长的标的。","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=630789","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccac","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"一季度，市场出现较大幅度的波动，主要是由于前期持续上涨提高了估值，另外国内外的流动性和政策环境出现了新的不确定性。在本基金操作上，我们适当降低了股票仓位，持仓结构上加仓建材、机械、地产，减仓电子、电力设备、有色金属。  展望未来，我们认为大部分优质企业的盈利仍将保持较快增长，盈利增长仍是权益市场的主要推动力；经过回调后上市公司估值也逐渐接近相对合理区间。我们将继续重点关注细分行业和个股的结构性机会，不断优化持仓结构，控制风险，努力提升收益。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.580Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2021年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=568973","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccab","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"回顾2020年，史无前例的新冠疫情对全球经济、社会以及资本市场带来了巨大的冲击，海外疫情持续反复，全球货币持续宽松，二季度以来全球股市受流动性推动大幅上涨，大宗商品、债券市场则分化明显。国内股票市场上行，新基金发行规模大幅增长，IPO规模维持高位。A股市场在充沛的流动性驱动下出现大幅分化，上半年疫情受益类和必须消费类的行业表现突出，下半年具备国际竞争优势、长期成长空间广大的行业占得鳌头。全年操作上，加仓汽车、有色、电力设备，减仓家电、传媒、地产。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.577Z","mo":"展望2021年，国内经济预计将延续复苏，企业盈利持续恢复性增长，考虑A股市场整体估值水平处于历史均值略偏高位置，未来整体估值恐难以继续扩张，盈利驱动有望成为主线。在全面注册制、完善退市制度等市场制度持续推进的情况下，预计上市公司优胜劣汰将是未来的常态。因此，2021年投资策略计划淡化指数，聚焦中长期的基本面变化，寻找企业盈利持续增长的结构性机会。当下的A股市场，市场演进的速度在加快，我们将力求在市场情绪波动、短期业绩验证和长期发展空间之间保持平衡，继续努力为投资者创造良好回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=551540","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044ccaa","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"三季度，流动性从疫情后持续宽松到边际收紧，市场由三季度初的快速拉升转入高位宽幅震荡。海外主要市场受疫情缓解、财政刺激力度减弱和即将到来的美国大选不确定性影响，也进入高位震荡。期间权益市场内部估值分化较大，成长空间大或增长确定性较强的行业如科技、医药、消费等，估值已经达到历史新高；短期基本面改善明显或预期改善明显的行业如光伏、军工、机械等估值提升较快；低估值的金融地产行业受监管政策和利率上行影响，缺乏估值修复的催化剂。操作上，出于组合再平衡的考虑，适度减持了科技和医药，增持了电力设备、汽车、机械等行业。  展望四季度，美国大选带来的不确定性有望逐渐消除，企业盈利处于上行区间，整体环境仍然有利于权益资产。但市场整体估值水平处于历史偏高位置，考虑到四季度流动性宽松程度较难恢复到上半年的水平，整体市场估值的系统性上升可能告一段落。因此，四季度权益市场波动率降低、缓慢上行的可能性更大，结构上注重基本面持续改善、估值合理的标的。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.574Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=488519","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044cca9","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"上半年，全球权益市场在经历了国内、国外两轮疫情冲击而快速大跌后，又在多方政策的支持下企稳并大幅反弹。尽管经济恢复弱于预期，贸易冲突仍在持续，但全球主要股票指数已经恢复到接近疫情前的水平， A股创业板指创了近三年新高，美国纳斯达克指数更是创了历史新高。权益市场的大幅反弹和经济基本面的大幅下滑形成了巨大的反差，一方面是由于全球各主要经济体都执行了历史上罕见的财政货币刺激纾困政策，另一方面是由于市场对明年恢复性高增长的预期。A股内部也出现了较大的结构性分化，医药、消费和信息科技表现突出，大金融和周期性行业估值受压，估值分化严重。我们对高估值保持审慎态度，本组合相对超配电子、医药、消费等领域的具有核心竞争力和长期增长空间的龙头公司。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.571Z","mo":"展望下半年市场，我们认为，指数下行风险有限，主要关注结构性机会。我们认为低估值行业快速补涨、估值修复完成后，市场会跟随基本面温和复苏的节奏进入相对均衡的阶段，疫后复苏预期不太可能产生持续的、快速猛烈上行的牛市。当前两市的成交额已经接近2015年的峰值水平，新增入市资金主要来源于理财资金迁移、债券基金赎回入市、外资流入和融资余额的上升。在货币政策不再进一步边际宽松的情况下，市场难以长期维持当前高水平的成交额。随着边际流动性的回稳，市场大概率转入震荡的状态，为优化组合提供更好的机会。预计下半年随着基本面持续温和复苏，货币政策整体保持宽松环境，场外资金继续流入，市场大概率在震荡休整后继续温和上行。风险方面，下半年美国大选带来的边际变化可能会放大国内市场的波动。另一方面，国内流动性的边际约束也可能成为市场进一步上行的瓶颈。基于风险收益比，下半年主要关注三方面的投资机会：一是关注产业升级、消费升级带来的长期的成长性机会；二是基本面持续改善的低估值高盈利公司；三是关注国企改革、要素市场改革和新型城市化改革带来的投资机会。我们认为，下半年，A股市场仍有较好的结构性机会，我们将努力为投资人带来更好的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=451847","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5cb7fea5b3eb044cca8","date":"2020-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001716,"sao":"一季度公布的数据显示经济受疫情影响严重。2月份工业增加值增速-25.87%；1-2月固定资产投资增速-24.5%；1-2月社会消费品零售总额同比增长-20.5%。领先指标方面，3月份中国制造业物流与采购经理人指数（PMI）报52.0，边际信心有所恢复。通胀方面，2月份居民消费价格总水平（CPI）同比增速5.2%，全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比增长-0.4%，持续回落。  流动性方面，为应对疫情冲击，信贷保持较高增速，2月份M2同比增速8.8%，M1同比增速4.8%，M2和M1增速均有所提升。  股市方面，一季度除创业板外各主要指数均下跌。其中上证综指下跌9.8%，沪深300指数下跌10%，深证成指收益率为-4.5%。从风格来看，代表大盘股的中证100指数和代表中盘指数的中证200回报分别为-12.2%和-5%，中小板指和创业板指回报分别为-1.9%和4.1%。分行业来看，农林牧渔、医药、计算机表现排名前三，收益率分别为16%、8.2%和2.9%，非银金融、家电、石油石化回报列最后三位，分别为-15.6%、-15.9%和-16.5%。  操作方面，增持医药、有色、农林牧渔，减持传媒、电力设备、电子。","declarationDate":"2020-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:06:19.568Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001716,"stockCode":"001716","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":79,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-12-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":200524000,"market":"a","tickerId":1716,"custody":"兴业银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信新趋势灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合(001716)","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":2575,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:09:21.683Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-12-14T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合","memoNum":1,"pinyin":"gyrxxqslhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"j101019514","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":122418249370,"name":"刘欣然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银新趋势灵活配置混合2020年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=171670","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}