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国有大行同业存单价格不断提价，《商业银行资本管理办法》公开征求意见等冲击债市情绪，收益率再次上行。进入3月，两会确定的经济增速目标偏谨慎，经济乐观预期适度修正，叠加降准预期兑现，且海外银行业风险事件推升避险情绪，10Y国债收益率下行至2.85%附近。进入二季度，债券市场整体呈现震荡下行的态势，10Y国债收益率从2.85%附近最低下行至2.60%以下。5月上旬以前，从基建-地产-工业生产等多方面的高频数据反映经济修复节奏放缓；同时受通知存款以及协定存款利率上限下调的影响，降息预期再度发酵，10Y国债收益率大幅下行至2.70%附近。5月中下旬，税期和跨月资金面整体平稳宽松，PMI低于荣枯平衡线，但受降息预期落空，且汇率破7等因素的压制，10Y国债收益率在2.68%附近区间震荡。6月13日，OMO政策利率降息落地，降息时点略超市场预期，债券市场交易空间被打开，10Y国债收益率最低下行至2.60%以下，但随后受税期资金面趋紧、止盈盘压力以及“宽信用”预期的扰动，债券收益率上行，在2.64%-2.69%之间震荡。报告期内，组合对持仓进一步优化，调整了组合内商业银行金融债持仓，抬升组合静态收益率，组合杠杆和久期保持相对稳定。","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.523Z","mo":"从基本面上看，经济在二季度出现了明显的增速放缓，由于宽信用政策相对克制，经济预期有所弱化，但在7月政治局会议之后，预期有所改善；另一方面，在经济增长放缓背景下，货币政策将维持相对宽松，而总量宽松政策能否进一步落地，需要关注经济复苏的持续性以及人民币贬值压力。债券市场，预计整体收益率将维持区间震荡走势。随着7月降息落地后，后续债券收益率继续大幅下行的空间有限：从供求关系上看，二季度供给大幅低于预期后，三季度面临明显放量的境况，供需缺口将明显放大；另一方面，银行资本工具也有可能在三季度进一步放量；另外需要关注《商业银行资本管理办法》如果在明年实施，随着实施节点临近，根据资本节约的导向，银行资本在配置调整过程中，会加剧阶段性供需矛盾；上半年由于实体经济较弱，主动宽信用而溢出到债券市场的资金，未来随着信用供给恢复，未来债券市场需求侧面临下行的风险。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=963444","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c25","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2023年年初，经济复苏预期偏强叠加跨节资金边际收紧，推动债券收益率上行，10Y国债收益率从2.81%上行至2.93%附近。春节后处于基本面数据真空期，但高频数据整体偏弱，以及配置资金进场等因素推动10Y国债收益率小幅下行至2.91%附近；但下旬资金面显著收紧，国有大行同业存单价格不断提价，银行资本管理新规出台等冲击债市情绪，收益率再次上行。进入3月，两会确定的经济增速目标偏谨慎，经济乐观预期适度修正，叠加降准预期兑现，且海外银行业风险事件推升避险情绪，10Y国债收益率下行至2.85%附近。投资策略：第一季度，组合对持仓进一步优化，调整了组合内商业银行金融债持仓，组合杠杆和久期保持相对稳定。展望后市，市场对温和复苏形成了较强的一致性预期，但是对复苏斜率的变化可能存在分歧，经济基本面走势情况将成为影响债市行情的关键因素。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.520Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=880536","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c24","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2022年，债券市场在经济复苏预期与证伪中反复震荡，10Y国债收益率波动幅度在30BP左右，是历史上波动最低的一年。全年来看，可以分为三个阶段：阶段一：1-5月--降息后宽信用预期升温与证伪，10Y国债收益率在2.7-2.85%区间震荡。1月降息后，10Y国债收益率最低下行至2.67%。但在农历春节后，由于市场对于宽信用的预期升温，叠加权益市场调整带来的“固收+”产品赎回，10Y国债收益率在3月中旬一度上行至2.85%。此后由于上海疫情的快速扩散，市场对于经济复苏的预期转向悲观，且资金面在4月中旬后持续维持在偏低水平，叠加经济数据的进一步回落，10Y国债收益率在5月末再度下行至2.7%以下。阶段二：6-8月--上海解封后经济复苏预期的证伪叠加降息的推动，10Y国债收益率在2.6%-2.85%区间波动。随着上海的解封，投资者开始担忧疫情防控形势改善后经济的好转，地产数据在半年末也出现了一波脉冲式的上行，叠加基建后续持续发力的预期也在持续升温，利率水平持续上行，10Y国债收益率再度回到了2.85%附近。但是地产“断供”不断加剧使得市场对于经济下行压力的担忧进一步加深，叠加疫情的反复，各地防控措施仍在升级，利率水平在7月中旬后开始持续回落。而在8月意外降息后，利率水平进一步下行，10 Y国债收益率一度突破了2.6%，创下了年内新低。阶段三：9-12 月--资金中枢抬升，叠加地产政策不断放松及防疫措施的优化，推动10Y国债利率突破2.9%。8月降息后，资金利率不降反升，且在10月下旬开始资金面的波动明显加大，资金中枢抬升，短端利率上行；与此同时，国内疫情防控政策开始出现了转向迹象，叠加地产融资政策频出，推动了债券市场大幅调整。在此过程中，机构赎回带来的“负反馈”效应，进一步导致债券市场调整，10 Y国债收益率突破了2.9%，几乎又回到了2021年末的原点。投资策略：第一季度，组合逐步降低债券仓位，杠杆和久期明显下降。2022年二季度，组合操作上，在4-5月，组合积极配置了一定比例中短久期信用债，抬升了组合杠杆；随着国内疫情管控的好转，经济逐步企稳，债券收益率震荡上行，组合将杠杆降至110%左右。第三季度，组合对持仓进一步优化，处置了部分短久期、低票息债券，增配了部分2-3年信用债，适度拉长了组合久期。第四季度，组合对持仓进一步优化，十一月初处置了一定比例的短久期金融债，随后逐步加仓2年内金融债，组合杠杆和久期保持相对稳定。展望后市，2023年债市整体或将仍以震荡为主。从货币政策来看，基本面偏弱的情形下，预计资金面维持稳中偏宽，但是由于整体超储率低，资金波动会加大，杠杆策略难度加大。从基本面情况来看，目前经济仍处于缓慢修复进程中，利率下行存在阻力；但从修复力度来看，又未超市场预期，所以利率上行也有顶。因此，一季度的经济数据和后续或将出台的财政货币政策将会对债市形成新的方向指引，若经济数据和经济刺激政策不及预期，将会促使债市重新走强。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.517Z","mo":"展望2023年，国内经济预计从弱衰退转向逐步修复。一方面防疫政策优化后，将对国内消费形成提振，也有助于降低居民失业率；另一方面地产在多项政策的刺激下，预计对经济的拖累将减弱。但受海外衰退的影响，出口预计延续下行趋势。通胀方面，受防疫政策优化后非食品价格抬升的影响，CPI预计温和抬升，PPI预计受全球衰退影响继续下行。货币政策方面，2022年12月政治局会议提出“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”，预计货币政策在财政前置的预期下将维持中性偏宽松，且结构性货币政策将持续发力，助力经济增长，但在“宽信用”的背景下，资金波动将加大。需关注若未来经济复苏力度尚可，通胀升温的情形下，货币政策可能转为中性基调。基于以上因素，我们判断2023年债市整体或将仍以震荡为主，但一旦宽信用的效果比较确定的反映在经济数据中，叠加货币政策边际趋紧，国内债市将面临一定的调整压力。好在2022年年末债券市场的上行，已经部分反映了经济好转的预期，调整的较为充分， 若后续经济增长弱于预期，债券市场或将迎来一波修复行情。全年来看，在宽信用的背景下，信用债行情整体将好于利率债。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=870267","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c23","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2022年三季度，债券走势呈现先下行后上行态势，关键节点为8月15日，央行下调了7天逆回购和1年期MLF利率各10BP。在此之前，市场主要交易狭义流动性的持续宽松，叠加7月政治局会议对经济增长目标有所弱化，且宏观政策工具未超预期，自7月初开始，债券收益率一路震荡下行，10Y国债活跃券最低下行至2.605%。但9月初开始，随着房地产政策持续宽松，且美国通胀持续超预期，导致美国鹰派加息，推动人民币兑美元持续贬值，且逐步突破了7.1、7.2的关键点位，带动债券收益率走高，10Y国债活跃券最高上行至2.77%。第三季度，组合对持仓进一步优化，处置了部分短久期、低票息债券，增配了部分2-3年信用债，适度拉长了组合久期。展望四季度，央行对流动性的呵护仍会持续，但资金面有向政策利率靠拢的倾向下，债券短端收益率或小幅抬升。基本面方面，受制于国内的防疫形势，居民消费意愿明显不足，消费仍将维持弱复苏状态；出口端，外需回落现象恐将在四季度进一步反馈到国内的出口数据上，净出口对GDP的拉动力将减弱；投资端，今年基建投资和制造业投资表现良好，未来一段时间，随着稳增长政策的持续发力，未来需要关注基建发力的持续性和房地产竣工端形成的实物投资量。整体来看，经济或将维持弱复苏状态，债券长端收益率将维持震荡格局。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.514Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=804852","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c22","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2022年1-3月初，债券市场围绕宽货币和宽信用展开博弈，10Y国债收益率走出”V”型走势；随后伴随2月社融数据走弱、国内多地散发疫情引发经济修复进程中断，同时俄乌冲突等利多因素，债券收益率震荡下行。进入二季度，4-5月中旬，上海、北京等局部疫情散发，降准落地、央行加速上缴利润、财政存款加速支出、信贷需求偏弱等因素叠加导致资金面持续宽松，短端债券收益率快速下行，但中长久期债券收益率对利多因素反应钝化，10Y国债收益率在2.8%附近震荡运行。5月下旬，市场下修对经济增速的预期，同时发行特别国债等稳增长政策预期落空，中长久期债券收益率出现补涨行情，10Y国债收益率最低下行至2.7%附近。进入6月，在资金面持续宽松与上海复工复产进程加快的多空因素共振影响下，10Y国债到期收益率快速反弹后转为区间震荡运行。第一季度，组合逐步降低债券仓位，杠杆和久期明显下降。进入二季度，组合操作上，在4-5月，组合积极配置了一定比例中短久期信用债， 抬升了组合杠杆；随着国内疫情管控的好转，经济逐步企稳，债券收益率震荡上行，组合将杠杆降至110%左右。","declarationDate":"2022-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.511Z","mo":"经历上半年整体较弱的经济走势后，市场对于经济增长的整体预期明显弱化，从政治局等会议传递出的信号，今年经济增速目标有所弱化，这意味着下半年，对于经济数据或者经济政策发力上，预期应当保持理性或弱化。从驱动经济的三辆马车上看：海外需求从去年底以来一直成为稳定中国经济的一大重要因素，但从今年以来，随着海外经济走弱，出口在量上呈现下滑趋势，价格因素对出口形成正贡献，展望下半年，随着通胀的回落，叠加海外地缘政治风险的不确定性，未来出口贡献将会回落；投资上，制造业和基建支撑上半年整体投资增速，而房地产对投资形成较大拖累。展望下半年，随着专项债的使用，基建投资预计仍能维持，但制造业受经济整体不确定影响，投资增速不确定较大，而房地产行业对于投资贡献仍然不乐观，因此从整体上看，下半年投资增速预计将有所回落；最后，受经济环境以及疫情因素影响，居民收入增速受到明显负面影响，消费增长中枢明显下滑。综上所述，经济整体增速相较于年初预期弱化。从政策上看，为了稳定经济增速，预计宽信用的政策将进一步发力，但随着2022年新增政府债完成，预计边际强度将减弱。受地方财政收入减少影响，地方政府在年度内进一步宽信用的效果有限；关注下半年是否有新的宽信用方面政策。货币政策方面，随着美联储加息进入下半场，货币政策的宽信用的目标前提下，预计将维持相对宽松的基调不变，下半年需要关注国内通胀走势对货币政策制约的预期变化；另一方面，由于市场短端资金利率已经处于较低的水平，后续边际上，政策进一步宽松的空间有限。基于以上因素，我们认为下半年债券收益率整体上向上风险不大，在经济基本面转好或者通胀出现超预期的上涨前，利率水平将维持相对低位震荡，中枢可能比上半年会有所下行。信用方面，除了房地产外，预计整体风险不大，但需要关注由于经济基本面弱化造成财务边际恶化的行业的信用压力。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=783663","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c21","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2022年1季度，债券市场整体收益率先下后上，10年期国债利率整体围绕2.8波动，低点出现在1月中下旬，主要由于央行降低公开市场利率导致；随着稳经济和宽信用的信息增强，叠加美联储紧缩预期加快，加上央行在公开市场投放上维持相对紧平衡，短端利率在2月份之后出现了较大的反弹，市场对政策进一步宽松的预期阶段性下降，2月份~3月份上旬，10年期国债利率出现了较为明显上行；3月中下旬开始，随着俄乌冲突造成市场风险偏好急剧下降，叠加疫情的扩散对经济的冲击，对于经济整体悲观预期在扩大，市场无风险利率有所回落。报告期内，组合逐步降低债券仓位，杠杆和久期明显下降。展望后市，在政府稳增长的诉求下，政策着力点仍然是投资人关注的重点。宽信用诉求下，市场需要合理充裕的流动性环境，因此宽货币仍可期待。但同时需要密切关注实体数据和政策的组合变化，预计债市仍将维持震荡格局。各地扩散的疫情或将成为重要的扰动因素。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.508Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=721822","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c20","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2021年，利率债整体呈现\"前高后低、中枢下行\"的慢牛行情。第一阶段（1月-4月）：资金预期从乐观转向谨慎。春节前，央行持续净回笼，资金利率明显上行，推动10Y国债上行至3.28%附近，曲线呈现\"熊平\"走势。节后资金利率回落，但受经济增长强劲预期的影响，长端利率下行幅度不大。第二阶段（4月-7月）：资金预期修复叠加\"资产荒\"，短端带动曲线下移。4月12日央行表示\"人民银行一直高度关注财政因素对银行体系流动性的影响，并将该因素纳入央行流动性管理的整体框架\"。资金预期修复，3年以内曲线高位回落；地方债发行进度偏慢进一步推动收益率下行，10Y国债利率从3.2%下行至3.04%附近。第三阶段（7月-9月）：超预期降准打开下行空间。PPI持续上行压缩下游企业利润空间，7月初超预期降准落地，10Y国债收益率打开下行空间，一路下行至8月初的2.8%附近。第四阶段（10月-11月）：宽松不及预期，叠加通胀压力，债市转向宽幅震荡。降准后资金利率未见明显下行，叠加地方债发行或有提速，市场对于10月降准抱有较强预期，但多次降准预期均落空；同时大宗商品价格暴涨，通胀压力再起，10年国债收益率迅速突破3.0%。第五阶段（11-12月）：经济下行压力加大，央行再度降准，收益率突破前期低点。11月地产风险发酵与紧信用加剧，经济下行压力加大，大宗商品价格回落，叠加央行再度开启降准，10Y国债收益率突破前期低点，下行至2.78%附近。投资策略：2021年第一季度，组合操作上，基于资金面相对宽松的背景，产品适度拉长了久期，增强组合配置收益，组合整体配置策略没有太大变化。二季度内，产品规模出现了较大的波动，部分时段因组合规模较小，非价格因素造成产品净值出现一定的回撤，随着产品规模恢复，产品净值波动将恢复正常。产品配置的仍然是较高流动性的资产，整体久期维持适中水平。第三季度产品规模增加，配置部分中短久期金融债以增厚组合票息收益，同时在资金面趋紧时配置一定比例的中短久期利率债，组合杠杆抬升至125%附近，久期维持适中水平。第四季度管理人持续优化产品组合，将部分短久期低票息的金融债置换为中性久期金融债，以增厚组合票息收益，组合杠杆适度抬升，久期维持适中水平。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.505Z","mo":"展望2022年，国内稳增长的目标明确，但从经济走势趋势上看，稳增长的压力较大： 2021年海外需求超预期一直是经济增长的拉动项，但随着海外经济复苏和恢复，生产替代的逻辑可能存在变化；国内需求方面，受疫情影响，居民消费受到明显的影响，新冠变异引发的疫情扩散一定程度上压制国内需求恢复；投资上看，房地产市场在持续的政策调控下，趋势短期不容乐观，三季度之前房地产投资触底企稳的难度仍然较大，预期对于经济拖累较大，制造业投资增速虽然较高，但一旦经济持续疲弱，则将影响资本未来的投资预期；因此2022年政府投资驱动将对经济的稳定有着比较重要的作用。从政策展望上看，上半年为了稳定经济增速，预计宽信用的政策将进一步发力。从政府工作报告内容上看，进一步财政支出用以刺激经济需求以及投资，有望出台更多的政策；另一方面，货币政策对于稳信用的配合在上半年相对确定。但随着海外央行货币政策收紧，叠加通胀上行的制约，货币政策未来宽松的空间将随着时间推移以及经济企稳会明显收缩。基于以上因素，对于国内债券市场，我们判断有利于利率持续下行的政策空间以及窗口都比较有限，而一旦宽信用的效果比较确定反映在经济数据中，叠加海外利率上升对于国内收益率的不利影响将较大；另一方面，货币政策整体维持相对宽松的确定性仍然较强，而宽信用趋势下，市场整体信用风险会有所降低。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=709187","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c1f","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2021年7月初央行意外全面降准0.5个百分点，同时局部区域疫情波及到全国，对暑假经济负面冲击严峻，加剧了市场对下半年经济增速下行的担忧，7月10年期国债收益率由3.05%左右快速下行至2.8%附近。降准之后，货币政策维持平稳操作，随后多次高层会议聚焦于宽信用，要求维持经济增速运行在合理区间，做好今明两年的政策衔接，处理好稳增长和防风险的关系，宽信用预期渐起，但地产和城投监管未见放松，债券市场进入宽信用与宽货币的博弈中，同时流动性相对宽松，长端利率在2.8%-2.9%之间窄幅震荡。组合操作上，3季度产品规模增加，配置部分中短久期金融债以增厚组合票息收益，同时在资金面趋紧时配置一定比例的中短久期利率债，组合杠杆抬升至125%附近，久期维持适中水平。展望4季度，出口仍有一定韧性，消费或将稳中有升，叠加中美关系边际改善，经济增速下滑但仍可控，PPI上行压力仍在加剧，短期内货币政策放松空间有限，债券收益率面临上行压力。","declarationDate":"2021-10-26T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.503Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=653550","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c1e","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2021年上半年，债市整体收益率呈现了一个震荡下行的走势，整体债券市场的走势主要受市场对货币政策预期，经济基本面预期、通胀预期以及债券市场供给等几个方面的影响。1月初，受资金需求以及财政投放错位影响，资金面一度收紧带动债券收益率回到12月的高位。但随后相对宽松的货币政策叠加旺盛的市场需求，推动债券收益率持续下行，特别是持续滞后的政府债券供给叠加相对宽松的货币环境，造成了市场资产相对紧缺，债券收益率再度回到去年四季度初的水平。在市场配置力量推动下，信用债的收益率回落更甚利率，整体信用利差持续维持在历史低位窄幅波动，市场对紧信用带来的信用风险担忧明显缓解。经济基本面上，上半年经济发展水平整体维持在较高的位置，二季度之后经济景气度有所回落，而通胀给市场带来的影响也随着上半年通胀高点的出现而下降，特别是政策对于通胀的关注减弱后，整体经济基本面对于债券市场走势逐步趋于有利。而债券收益率也正是基于此种因素，持续走低。组合操作上，1季度基于资金面相对宽松的背景，产品组合适度拉长了久期，增强组合配置收益，组合整体仍然以高流动性品种为主；二季度内，产品规模出现了较大的波动，组合适时调整，降低久期并以流动性因素为主要考量，随着产品规模恢复，产品配置恢复常态，配置品种兼顾流动性和收益性。","declarationDate":"2021-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.500Z","mo":"展望下半年，全球疫情形势因病毒变异而趋于复杂，但随着各国疫苗接种率的提升，疫情对于经济活动的影响趋于稳定。从国际上看，美联储退出宽松和加息的进度成为了国际市场上最值得关注的事件，其次，国际商品价格后续走势对通胀的影响，将成为影响各国货币政策走向的关键因素。预计在这些因素作用下，下半年国际市场整体动荡将加剧，市场整体风险偏好将变得不稳定。从国内来看，下半年经济基本面稳定程度，以及对明年经济趋势的预期，将直接左右政策转变的进度。二季度，国内货币政策执行报告提出完善常态化货币政策沟通机制，预计未来货币政策将更加灵活。我们认为货币政策未来将更加注重政策对实体经济的效能，而对于金融市场，将很难进一步宽松；另外一方面，为了支持明年形成实物工作量，债券市场供给很难像上半年持续低于正常进度，供给放量将成为明显的扰动因素，预计利率下半年整体波动将明显加大。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=633844","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c1d","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2021年1季度，债券市场整体维持一个窄幅震荡的走势，10年期国债利率波动不超过20bp。1月，政策延续去年底相对宽松的环境，债券市场利率持续回落，无风险利率基本收复了4季度的上行。随着缴税期临近，税收上缴影响了市场的流动性，而节奏相对较慢的财政投放使得市场的整体流动性雪上加霜，1月中旬到1月底超预期的资金紧缩给市场带来了一定的冲击，市场利率随着资金利率的上升而再度上涨。但1月资金面冲击并没有对市场的配置力量产生太大的影响，供给相对低位以及政策对信用环境相对友好的背景下，短期信用风险明显回落，需求相对稳定下，中高等级信用利差整体延续下行趋势，利差回到去年低位水平。组合操作上，基于资金面相对宽松的背景，产品适度拉长了久期，增强组合配置收益，组合整体配置策略没有太大变化。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.497Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2021年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=572339","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c1c","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2020年债券收益率全年呈现V型走势，虽然全年无风险利率变动不大，但年内波动剧烈：上半年，受全球疫情蔓延影响，收益率快速下行，国内主要收益率均在4月份创出此轮债券牛市低点，利差曲线也持续压缩；随着政府对冲疫情的宽松政策的效果显现，经济基本面企稳回升，市场恐慌情绪消退，二季度债券市场收益率出现明显反弹；特别是随着官方明确表态政策将进入正常化进程后，债券市场在货币政策边际收紧以及供给放量的冲击下，债券市场进入了趋势性下跌，至3季度末，主要无风险收益率曲线均已回到年初水平；四季度，受地方国企信用风险事件影响，利率再度上行，信用利差明显扩大；临近年末，受政策对冲影响，无风险利率有所回落，但信用利差整体维持年内高位。全年来看，债券无风险收益率变动不大，但期间波动幅度较大，国债1年和10年利率曲线波动达185bp和87bp。信用利差方面，高等级短久期信用利差整体变动不大，低等级长久期信用利差明显上行。投资策略：2020年第一季度，新冠疫情爆发成为最大的黑天鹅，央行货币政策维持宽松，宽信用效果持续显现，债市利率大幅下行，组合逐步提升流动性较高的券种比例，并降低资产组合整体久期，使得组合整体维持较高的流动性状态；二季度，在利率历史低点上，债券收益率波动将加大，但受流动性需求制约，组合主要以利率品为主；三季度，得益于新冠疫情防控有效，我国经济持续复苏，加上债券供给压力，我们对债券维持谨慎态度，组合降低了持仓久期；四季度，受经济强劲复苏预期、货币政策趋紧、新冠疫苗研发成功以及地方国企信用事件冲击的影响，债券市场收益率快速单边上行，组合配置上主要以中短久期利率配置为主。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.494Z","mo":"展望2021年上半年，随着疫苗接种提速，疫情在全球范围内出现明显好转，全球经济也出现持续复苏。基于低基数，上半年经济增速将出现明显的上行。由于供给恢复明显弱于需求的因素，需求推动的增长短时间内仍然较为强劲，同时将推动通胀上行；预期上半年随着经济增长，通胀也将在二季度出现较大上行，而上游大宗商品上行幅度的不确定性将成为未来经济及政策走向的较大不确定因素。政策方面，预期货币政策回归常态化将持续，央行在市场流动性对冲方面将更为谨慎，市场资金面波动预期将加大，而随着通胀的持续走高，未来货币政策再度收紧的不确定性也将加大；债券供给方面，相对于去年供给整体节奏较慢，随着地方债和专项债的供给放量，未来供给冲击对于市场的影响也将加大。市场方面，由于经济基本面短期持续向好，加上通胀带来的货币政策的不确定性因素，预计上半年利率上整体难见明显的趋势性机会；由于社融增速大概率低于去年，在经济基本面好转与信用收缩的对立中，市场信用整体的超额收益也较难获取。但是基于经济基本面恢复性复苏的判断以及阶段性通胀的预期，未来利率的上行风险以及上行的时间也较为有限，因此未来我们整体配置将维持中性偏谨慎的久期暴露，根据利率绝对水平，适当调整组合久期，以期维持相对合理的组合收益风险比率。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=556823","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c1b","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2020年三季度，得益于新冠疫情防控有效，及时出台了系列的货币政策和财政政策，我国经济持续复苏。但全球范围疫情实际仍未呈现拐点式回落，新增感染人数屡创新高，经济全球化遭遇逆流，保护主义、单边主义上升，世界经济低迷，国际贸易和投资大幅萎缩。在此背景下，中央提出以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展路径，货币政策以稳为主，更加关注DR007等利率价格对市场的影响，短期资金利率围绕公开市场操作利率平稳运行，在月末、季末都没有出现大的波动。但是债券收益率在经济复苏、地方债大量发行、结构化理财压降的背景下，持续上行，整条利率曲线都处于今年以来高点，超过年初利率水平。受流动性需求制约，在产品配置上，组合主要以利率品为主，由于对利率趋势并不乐观，组合降低了持仓久期。展望四季度，从基本面趋势上看，对于利率走势仍不能乐观，但受全球疫情影响，经济基本面可能存在预期差，随着债券收益率上行到一定位置，债券相对配置价值逐步显现，债券市场可能具有阶段交易性机会。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.491Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=489141","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec6057fea5b3eb0450c1a","stockId":3000000001918,"sao":"2020年上半年，债券市场利率整体先抑后扬，整体波动幅度较大，市场主要受新冠疫情发展、国内政策应对以及经济基本面三个因素影响。2020年春节前后，新冠疫情首先在中国爆发后，迅速在全球蔓延；为了控制疫情，全球经济活动受到了很大的影响，特别是在疫情蔓延初期，政府对冲政策尚未完善，3月全球主要金融市场都经历了一波恐慌式下跌；此后，随着宽松政策对冲不断出台，经济基本面出现企稳，市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但市场避险情绪整体维持高位，国内债券收益率持续下行，并在4月创出本轮债券牛市以来低点。进入二季度，随着国内经济基本面的好转以及金融市场稳定，国内政策更加注重需求拉动和对实体的支持，五月份之后货币政策已从之前超级宽松回到正常宽松状态，并有\"关注政策的后遗症,提前考虑政策工具的适时退出\"的前瞻性表述；在货币政策边际收紧和债券供给冲击下，资金利率波动加大，债券市场进入明显的趋势性调整。受流动性需求制约，在产品配置上，组合逐步提升流动性较高的券种比例，并降低资产组合整体久期，进入二季度，产品配置主要以利率品为主，使得组合整体维持在一个较高的流动性状态。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:07:17.488Z","mo":"下半年展望：全球疫情以及国际贸易关系等不确定性仍将扰动市场。国际经济虽然出现了一定的企稳反弹，但是由于部分地区疫情反复，全球疫情形势仍然不能乐观，全球经济出现反复的风险仍在；随着美国大选临近，美国政策不确定性加大，国际贸易形势反复的风险也进一步加大。这两大不确定因素将对全球经济造成不利影响，全球经济复苏的基础仍然较弱。国内方面，经济恢复持续，政策及海外因素不确定性较大：房地产方面，虽然房地产政策维持房住不炒，但房地产投资和需求趋势仍然向好；出口方面，受疫情影响，外贸今年内累计增速仍处于负区间，虽然逐月改善，但是由于中美贸易局面前景不明朗，预计下半年出口外需仍偏弱势；融资方面，下半年社融增速预计维持相对稳定，但由于货币政策边际有所收紧，信用宽松程度较难进一步扩大；国内政策方面，根据央行公开的信息，货币政策将很难进一步宽松，如果经济不出现超预期回落风险，政策甚至边际有收紧的倾向；物价方面，短期通胀压力不大，但远期通胀抬头的风险在升高，进一步制约了货币政策空间。综上判断，基本面仍然不利于债券市场，由于经济增长并未完全恢复，货币政策并不会完全转向，预计利率整体将处于震荡状态，利率向上空间并不大，但债券市场很难获取趋势性收益。因此在未来一段时间，债券配置上，通过适当控制久期来降低组合净值波动风险。","fund":{"_id":3000000001918,"__csrcFundId":4487,"stockCode":"001918","shortName":"圆信永丰兴利(001918)","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":1918,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-30T18:15:55.559Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2016-02-22T16:00:00.000Z","name":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":1,"fundCollectionId":4000050950000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"圆信永丰兴利","pinyin":"yxyfxlzqxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"8801402820","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2425150730,"name":"许燕"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"圆信永丰兴利债券型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=457669","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}