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一季度债市波段交易优于持有配置，票息策略强于久期策略，中长期纯债基金收益率中位数在0以下，开年以来债券投资意外进入困难模式。转债方面，以机器人、AI为代表的科技成长风格带动A股风险偏好大幅抬升，正股主题投资行情显著利好高价低评级小盘个券，此前受制于信用风险担忧的低价标的逐步修复，全市场中位数价格上行至120元以上。此外存量中大盘个券逐步强赎及到期也带动偏债型品种转股溢价率走扩至近3年来高位，季度内转债整体呈现平价和估值的戴维斯双击，等权及加权的转债指数均跑赢主要宽基股指。　　权益方面，市场在一季度保持着对大科技板块的热情，主要集中在机器人、AI应用和国产算力底座；而海外算力链受叙事逻辑影响表现较为平淡。同时受消费提振政策的影响，大消费类板块在3月份表现也较为突出；同时春季复工也导致开工端板块，如化工、有色和工程机械等有不错的表现。由于市场对内需政策有所期待，同时市场风格在一季度整体偏科技成长和小盘，红利类资产由于其避险属性表现有所承压。但在广谱收益率下行的背景下，我们认为红利资产对于偏中长期的资金依然有较强的吸引力，因此我们继续维持着红利风格的底仓，并在此基础上布局高分红的优质个股。同时，一季度末也是市场风格切换的时点，红利类资产在此环境下有所受益。对于弹性仓位，我们维持着AI端侧硬件以及算力端硬件的布局；在看好国产算力崛起的基础上，加强布局了半导体制造类资产。同时，我们也保持着对出口链、消费电子和医疗等板块的关注。　　对于后市的展望，四月进入财报密集发布期同时伴随美国关税扰动，我们预判四月风格整体会偏谨慎，而科技再上车的节点或需等五月。指数方面，我们认为虽然外部或有关税和地缘冲突等风险冲击，但目前结合内部目标和政策来看，指数预计维持区间内震荡，并存在结构性机会。尽管市场存在一定波动，但全年维度我们依然看好以科技为主线的行情持续演绎。防御仓位方面，红利板块的配置价值在近期进一步凸显，此类资产有着较高的风险收益比，因此我们仍然会保持对优质红利个股的配置。弹性仓位方面，我们认为AI和半导体产业链是中国科技继续突破的重要方向，我们也会在后续进一步挖掘相关标的；行业层面，我们仍将继续保持对于TMT、新能源、医药、消费以及出海/出口链等板块的关注。　　本基金主要以运用票息策略为主，投资于3年期以内的高等级信用债与利率债品种，适当布局短久期非活跃券以赚取较高的票息，整体组合风格偏防御。权益仓位则主要配置低估值、高分红、抗通胀的个股为主，通过自上而下的行业轮动以减少组合净值波动，力争实现低回撤下获取稳健收益。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:04:55.097Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001418,"stockCode":"001418","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":4,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-06-10T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2321470000,"market":"a","tickerId":1418,"custody":"华夏银行股份有限公司","name":"宏利创益灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"宏利创益混合 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“资产荒”极致演绎以及化债政策驱动下的财政收缩效应，期间虽受央行对长端利率的调控管理以及稳增长政策加码等影响出现三次明显调整，但债券收益率整体保持震荡下行趋势，国债1Y下破1%、30Y下破2%，各期限利率多数创历史新低，标志性的10Y国债更是从开年2.56%至年底下破1.7%，全年降幅87bp为2020年疫情以来最大。与此同时在地方化债的大背景下，各类债券的品种及信用利差、区域及条款溢价出现极致压缩，信用债“利率化”现象大范围扩散，10Y及以上超长信用债更是出现罕见的供需两旺格局。从基本面上看，实体经济仍处于新旧动能转换的过渡期，虽然GDP增速完成5%目标，但制造业PMI大部分月份处于荣枯线下方，基建及制造业投资难以完全对冲地产销售及投资增速下行的拖累，房价及股市的疲弱通过财富效应传导至社会消费品零售总额持续弱复苏，价格方面GDP平减指数和PPI全年处于负值区间，宏观经济整体呈现供强需弱、外强内弱、量在价先的分化格局。从资金面角度看，央行分别于1月、9月两次共降准1%，7月、9月两次共降息30bp，并新设买断式逆回购、二级市场买卖国债等手段，在丰富公开市场操作工具箱的同时搭建货币政策新框架，维持了全年平稳宽松的流动性环境，12月中央政治局会议时隔多年再度确认货币政策基调由“稳健”转为“适度宽松”。政策面是“宽货币+紧财政+松地产”的组合，对增量财政政策发力的担忧贯穿全年，但特别国债上量、地方置换债增发都被旺盛的投资需求顺利消化，均未构成对债市的实质性负面冲击，而4月存款手工补息禁止、12月同业存款自律规范带来的资金出表更是全面助推了债券利率的大幅下行。机构行为方面，公募基金规模跨越30万亿大关，银行理财恢复至2022年四季度债灾以来的新高水平，保险产品预订利率下调也带来了险资配债规模的大幅扩张，银行体系则延续大行放贷、小行买债的局面，不同类型机构都加大了债券配置力度，并进一步通过交易向波动要收益。我们坚定地维持着红利风格的底仓，着重布局高分红个股和环保化债类高分红标的。对于弹性仓位，我们做了结构上的调整，布局了AI端侧硬件标的、海风海缆等低估值标的和医药龙头公司。同时，我们也保持着对有色金属、消费和设备出海等板块的关注。对于后市的展望，我们认为本季度以及之后的权益市场会震荡上行。政策落地情况和海外宏观变化均会为权益市场带来波动，但结构性行情有望交替演绎。防御仓位方面，红利板块的配置价值显著，其绝对收益可观，且能有效平滑组合的波动率，因此我们仍然会保持对优质红利个股的配置。弹性仓位方面，我们将贴合政策导向、科技龙头、低估反转和并购重组等方向，将视野聚焦在消费、医药、通信、军工、电子和新能源等板块，寻找兼具确定性和弹性的优质个股重点布局。　　本基金主要以运用票息策略为主，投资于3年期以内的高等级信用债与利率债品种，适当布局短久期非活跃券以赚取较高的票息，整体组合风格偏防御。权益仓位则主要配置低估值、高分红、抗通胀的个股为主，通过自上而下的行业轮动以减少组合净值波动，力争实现低回撤下获取稳健收益。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:04:55.094Z","mo":"展望2025年，经济基本面能见度不高，特朗普再度当选总统后地缘摩擦及关税争端将使支撑国内经济的净出口进一步承压，而国内宏观政策相机抉择、内外对冲特征将更为明显。在地方化债叠加新旧动能转换的大背景下，央行大概率在可预见的中期维度维持支持性的货币政策立场，总体而言大概率债牛未尽但节奏较难把握，收益率曲线形态变数增多。具体操作上关注特朗普上台后关税加征、中美脱钩的落地进度，以及国内政策应对加码的增量变化，波段交易＞久期调节、品种轮动＞信用下沉、杠杆套息，市场调整即是加仓买入机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000001418,"stockCode":"001418","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":4,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-06-10T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2321470000,"market":"a","tickerId":1418,"custody":"华夏银行股份有限公司","name":"宏利创益灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"宏利创益混合 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