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、财政法案的推进等利好因素推动，市场风险偏好有所修复，美股三大股指普涨。　　2025年上半年A股市场呈现区间震荡走势。国内稳增长政策发力和新兴产业发展的带动下，国内经济延续去年四季度以来的平稳修复态势。一季度，DeepSeek等科技突破提升微观主体信心和市场风险偏好，市场整体上行。二季度，美国关税对市场形成短暂冲击，但在稳增长、稳市场政策明确的背景下，A股市场整体呈现逐渐修复态势。风格上，上半年成长板块占优。分行业来看，上半年中信一级行业中有色金属、银行、传媒涨幅居前，煤炭、房地产、食品饮料等板块跌幅居前。上半年价值和成长均有结构性机会，本基金继续重点配置在大金融，大消费和科技成长方向，其中大金融板块中继续超配优质中小行，大消费方向减持了基本面承压的白酒，适当增加了港股优质龙头的配置，在科技成长板块中，维持对AI算力，机器人，新能源和军工等板块的均衡配置。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.591Z","mo":"海外方面，主要经济体增长动能走弱但硬着陆风险较低。美国就业压力逐渐显现将促使美联储大概率重启降息。国内方面，外需走弱和政策脉冲趋缓对经济增长形成一定下行压力，但考虑到我国出口竞争优势，房地产调整对经济的影响程度或将降低，经济结构转型下新兴产业发展动能仍强，预计下半年经济增长呈现温和放缓态势。政策稳增长、稳市场方向明确，将进一步推动支持经济结构转型升级。短期市场对当前宏观经济状态定价较为充分，往后看经济增长短期存在一定的下行压力，但倾向于认为下行幅度和持续时间有限，同时考虑到市场流动性维持宽松，政策对经济和市场的支持，预计市场维持震荡格局，存在结构性机会。中期来看，A股盈利增速正在接近底部，未来盈利回升或将进一步推动上行。配置上，一是在广谱利率下行背景下，经营稳健、分红率高的红利资产仍具备配置性价比；二是以人工智能、创新药代表的新兴产业发展空间较大；三是中期维度，顺周期龙头资产也在逐渐走出盈利底部，赔率较高。关注海外政策不确定性可能对市场带来的冲击。下半年，本基金将继续聚焦科技成长、大金融和大消费领域，在科技成长领域，继续关注AI算力、机器人、新能源、军工、半导体等子行业，维持相对均衡的配置结构，在大金融领域，继续超配优质中小行并关注低估值个股的修复机会，在大消费领域，同时关注景气成长和低估值修复的结构性机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合","pinyin":"gyrxzhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20175569","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2525132510,"name":"鄢耀"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1345534","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5187fea5b3eb0440325","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001140,"sao":"2025年一季度，美国增长和就业呈现回落态势，叠加政策层面的扰动，市场对美国经济衰退风险担忧加大。在经济不确定性增强的背景下，美联储决策暂时进入观望阶段，美股震荡加剧，三大股指均下跌。　　2025年一季度，在国内稳增长政策发力和新兴产业发展的带动下，国内经济延续四季度以来的平稳修复态势。DeepSeek等科技突破提升微观主体信心和市场风险偏好。具体来看：外需方面，去年高基数叠加海外需求动能减弱，出口较2024年有所回落。内需方面，新兴产业发展和政府发力支持制造业投资、基建投资维持相对高位，房地产和消费维持平稳。　　2025年一季度，A股经历1月下跌调整后，春节以来科技板块引领A股估值继续修复。从市场风格看，一季度A股市场风格整体偏向成长，汽车、有色金属等行业涨幅居前。1季度沪深300指数小幅下跌1%，股指维持震荡走势，1~2月成长风格占优，3月以后市场风格偏价值，成长风格回落。基金在1季度维持了较高的权益投资仓位，行业配置方面继续加大了对成长板块的配置，包括AI+、机器人、半导体等板块，基本维持了前期对大金融和消费板块的配置。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.589Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合","pinyin":"gyrxzhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20175569","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2525132510,"name":"鄢耀"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1278214","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5187fea5b3eb0440324","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001140,"sao":"2024年，欧美经济增长和通货膨胀均呈现回落态势，货币政策进入宽松周期。欧美连续降息后，四季度全球经济环比温和修复，主要经济体中除欧元区外均出现改善态势。　　2024年国内经济呈现“U型”走势。一季度GDP增速较高，二、三季度有所放缓，随着一揽子稳增长政策的接续发力，四季度以来增长动能逐渐企稳。外需方面，海外经济景气温和回落与补库存接近尾声，出口较2023年回落但韧性仍强。内需方面，“以旧换新”政策红利带动耐用消费品零售明显增长，宽松政策支持下房地产销售呈现企稳迹象，新兴产业发展带动制造业投资维持高位。　　2024年A股市场一波三折，一季度明显反弹、二三季度持续回调后，9月底以来大幅上涨，截至12月31日，上证综指、沪深300、中证500、创业板指年内均实现正收益。从市场风格看，全年A股市场风格整体偏向价值板块，银行、非银金融、家电等行业涨幅居前。　　2024年前三个季度红利风格占优，第四季度成长风格占优。操作上，基金整体维持了较为均衡的配置，主要聚焦在大金融、大消费和成长科技板块。在大金融板块，考虑虽然宏观经济增长面临一定挑战，但银行业基本面相对稳定性和确定性较强，虽然利率不断下行过程中息差面临收窄压力，但政策面对银行业息差相对呵护，预计银行业利润仍保持正增长，银行板块在2023年4季度股价下跌后，估值性价比较强，所以在2024年我们选择一直超配银行板块，个股上坚持对优质中小行的配置；在大消费板块主要配置必选消费，在4季度小幅增加了部分可选消费；在成长科技板块，继续超配新能源中竞争格局较好的龙头个股，逐步增加了产业趋势越发明显的人工智能板块的配置比例，适当减持了军工板块。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.586Z","mo":"海外经济方面，2025年海外经济增长动能或将进一步趋弱但韧性仍强。美国通胀可能存在上行风险，美联储降息大概率进入观察期。　　国内经济方面，2025年国内经济增长有望逐渐企稳。外需不确定性加大，扩内需成为稳增长的重要抓手。为对冲国内经济周期性下行压力及应对外需不确定性风险，政策将进一步扩大内需。财政政策、货币政策有望更加积极。在稳增长政策支持下，国内经济动能预计将持续恢复。　　2025年对外贸易表现和国内财政政策是影响市场的主要因素，预计市场呈现震荡格局，波动可能加大，存在结构性机会。国内政策方向将持续积极，经济数据维持平稳，对市场形成一定支撑；但海外环境不确定性仍大，可能对市场造成阶段性扰动。A股上市公司盈利能力已经历较长时间调整，部分行业产能、库存逐渐出清，需求端下行压力逐渐缓解，相关行业及板块存在投资机会。　　2025年基金重点关注在大金融、大消费和科技成长赛道，并根据行业基本面、估值性价比以及市场风格变化等因素择机调整各个子版块的配置比例，整体上更加看好成长风格的表现。在大金融板块，银行板块的配置价值依然存在，聚焦配置优质个股；大消费板块关注政策逐步发力后基本面能否发生积极变化带来部分低估值品种的修复机会；科技成长板块，继续看好产业趋势明确的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度表现较好。　　总体来看，上半年主题性风格占主导地位，行业和个股表现主要与基本面预期和防御性需求相关，顺周期行业表现较为低迷。","declarationDate":"2023-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.570Z","mo":"2023年下半年，随着经济复苏持续、估值风险基本消化完毕，市场改善概率较大。从基本面方面看，当前库存周期处于底部，未来补库需求逐渐释放，叠加支持性政策的累积，经济复苏动能有望增强，增强企业收入和盈利改善的持续性。从估值角度看，当前市场对于经济预期已经较为悲观，消费、地产、城投等多方面风险已经较为充分地计入市场预期，顺周期行业的估值风险已经基本消化完毕。总体上看，基本面的改善将成为市场修复的主要动力，估值的系统性改善仍需等待居民和企业信心的修复。　　展望后市，从中短期角度看，经济和地产的长期下行压力仍在释放，虽然之前判断今年是弱复苏，但实际经济复苏的力度仍低于预期。但考虑第二波疫情过后未来疫情对经济的冲击基本可以忽略，政策之前定力较强，反过来看目前还有可操作空间，政策仍是最大变量，经济可能仍有缓慢修复的可能，过于悲观的情绪可能存在修复的机会。从长期角度看，随着万科、平安、招行、宁波等过去数十年里的优秀公司逐一褪色，依靠长期持有优质龙头公司获取超额收益的投资策略目前看面临近多年以来的最大挑战，需考虑优化。重点可能仍需放在个股层面。一是研究层面可能需要扩大研究跟踪范围，过去几年过于集中在表现优异的区域型银行上，一些大行和股份制行研究和跟踪力度有所欠缺，二是选股层面估值层面的研究权重要适当增加，高溢价未来可能面临更大压力。基金经理将持续改进投资策略和方法，适应新的经济和市场环境，为投资者持续带来稳健的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合","pinyin":"gyrxzhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20175569","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2525132510,"name":"鄢耀"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=957151","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5187fea5b3eb044031d","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001140,"sao":"一季度国内经济持续恢复，春节期间餐饮和出行数据恢复较快，信贷需求旺盛，消费平稳恢复，地产销售回暖。经济恢复过程中也伴随压力，总体需求偏弱、出口持续承压、后续订单可见度不高、沿海城市用工需求弱于往年同期、汽车消费疲弱且出现了激烈的价格战，经济增长整体呈现出缓慢复苏的特征。海外美国总体需求不弱，通胀有所回落但韧性较强，企业盈利处于历史较高水平，就业和工资数据保持高位，同时房屋库存水平较低；美联储快速加息引发了金融环境收紧，中小银行受到冲击。一季度，国内和海外的经济基本面情况变化有限，投资者的预期摆动却较为剧烈。季度初投资者对于国内经济形成了强劲复苏的过度乐观预期，在春节后经济数据缓慢恢复但恢复斜率不及预期的情况下，投资者情绪迅速滑向悲观。海外投资者也经历了“通胀环比回落加息见顶且会降息—通胀韧性强还要加息四次—中小银行危机后回到预定的加息两次”的预期变化。国内外预期的剧烈变化带来了权益市场的大幅波动和内部结构的极端分化。3月份以来，对于宏观环境波动相对不敏感的主题性的投资机会成为投资者追逐的方向，其中最具代表性的是AIGC科技主题。AIGC主题由chatgpt驱动，人工智能具备一定推理能力后可以带来巨大的生产方式和生活方式的变革。当前的问题是估值较高，而切实可落地的商业模式进展有限，所以才出现了国内A股对于AI主题的极度追捧和海外股市对于AI主题反应平淡的强烈反差。除了代码实现、文字撰写、图像视频制作的成本降低，以及算力和存储需求提升的确定性改变之外，AI对于现有商业模式、竞争格局、法律规则、道德边界的影响仍需逐步地在现实中磨合。在如此巨大的潜在变化面前，仅仅基于当前行业格局做出线性外推式的投资决策可信度十分有限。投资经理将跟踪行业变化和具体影响，力求审慎地为投资者带来稳健的回报。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.567Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合","pinyin":"gyrxzhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20175569","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2525132510,"name":"鄢耀"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=882234","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5187fea5b3eb044031c","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001140,"sao":"过去的一年宏观环境复杂多变，市场预期难以稳定，经济表现在多重因素压制下较为疲弱，因而权益市场呈现出总量震荡下行、结构割裂反复的特征。国内经济增长总体表现弱于年初预期。年初在稳增长政策的支持下，经济显现出触底回升的迹象。但三月份的俄乌冲突，加重了能源、粮食价格上涨带来的通胀压力，稳增长政策落地的难度提升。同时，深圳、上海的疫情影响内需，一季度经济增长低于年初预期。步入二季度，上海疫情冲击显著超出预期，物流运输和汽车、半导体等行业供应链一度出现较大问题，经济基本面受到较大幅度的冲击。上海疫情过后，随着国常会支持政策陆续出台，经济回归恢复性增长阶段。但三季度疫情多点爆发，管控区域扩大；地产保交楼风险出现，开发商融资困境难解；美联储超预期加息下，人民币汇率快速、大幅下行。三方面因素导致三季度经济表现低于预期。四季度，疫情政策实质性放开后，经济活动短时间受到较大冲击，但随着国内地产政策支持力度大幅加强、疫情防控政策实质性转向、海外通胀降温加息放缓，市场对于未来经济的预期大幅改善。　　市场表现方面，年初在赛道股持仓和交易拥挤、海外加息预期制约国内货币政策空间担忧下，市场出现较大幅度的调整，在稳增长预期支撑下，建筑、地产表现较好。其后俄乌战争爆发，国际局势紧张加剧、上海疫情爆发影响较大，市场持续下行，高通胀支撑周期股表现坚挺。上海疫情平息后，市场持续反弹，边际恢复力度大、行业需求旺盛的新能源和新能源车行业表现较好。进入三季度，多重负面因素影响下，市场反弹结束重回下行，整体行业普遍下跌。二十大结束后，政策大力度转向，市场触底反弹，受益于经济复苏的金融地产和消费行业表现最好。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.564Z","mo":"2023年从整体看，A股基本面环境将有所改善，市场表现改善明显。　　增长方面，在疫情、地产管控政策放松和产业政策持续发力背景下，经济增长动能有望明显提高，海外出口会有一定拖累。国内疫情管控政策放松，经济存在内生修复动能，运输、物流情况有所好转，经济运行摩擦减少。稳增长政策发力支持经济复苏。中央经济工作会议指出“2023年要突出做好稳增长工作，推动经济运行整体好转；明年经济工作千头万绪，要从改善社会心理预期、提振发展信心入手，纲举目张做好工作”。中央经济工作会议，对于平台经济、民营企业、产业政策表述均较为积极。地产行业的风险正在逐步释放，行业库存压力有限，销售面积和地产投资对于经济增长的贡献度已经接近海外合理水平。当前居民信心仍是制约房地产销售回升的重要因素。总体看，2023年房地产销售、投资跌幅有望收窄。仍然是出口方面，全球经济增速回落，但主要国家陷入深度衰退概率不大。受到海外经济增速放缓的影响，出口对于经济的拉动作用将大幅下降。流动性方面，海外通胀下行方向确定，加息放缓，流动性改善方向确定；国内货币政策仍需发力，社融增速有望企稳并小幅回升，剩余流动性较2022年收窄但仍维持宽松。企业盈利方面，预计全部A股盈利录得中低个位数增长。预计消费、金融地产、TMT盈利增速较2022年回升，上游周期、中游制造盈利增速较2022年回落。估值方面，当前风险溢价仍处于高位，未来有望随经济增长改善而修复。在企业盈利和估值的双重改善下，权益市场有望带来较好的回报。","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合","pinyin":"gyrxzhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20175569","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2525132510,"name":"鄢耀"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=864908","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5187fea5b3eb044031b","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001140,"sao":"国内经济受地产问题和疫情持续点状爆发影响较大，同时海外需求在高通胀的影响下开始下滑，出口压力逐渐显现。稳增长接续政策持续推进，政策落地效果有待进一步观察。四季度基数较低，同时国内通胀相对可控，考虑到市场对地产和出口的预期已经较为悲观，实际经济增速存在略好于预期的可能。后续仍需观察地产和疫情两方面能否出现积极的变化。通胀方面，由于需求较为疲弱，国内通胀压力有限。流动性方面，国内流动性处于较为宽松的环境中，但信用传导不畅，新增信贷主体和信贷需求有限。同时，美联储紧缩性政策持续，挤压了国内的货币政策空间，未来需要观察央行在内部和外部均衡方面的取舍。企业盈利延续下行态势，但中报盈利增速好于市场预期，企业盈利增速大概率进入筑底区间，未来有望表现出一定韧性。当前市场估值处于历史相对低位，部分大盘股股息率相对长期国债利率已经具备较高的吸引力，存在估值修复的可能性。但美联储抗通胀致力于推高实际利率，进一步拉大了国内和海外货币政策差异，贬值的压力使估值修复的窗口后推。  三季度权益市场在经济复苏动能趋弱、地产保交楼压力较大、疫情持续反复的影响下，出现较大幅度的下行。行业表现方面，受益于海外能源价格高企的煤炭、石油石化表现强势。操作方面，我们加仓银行、地产，减仓非银行金融。展望四季度，我们对市场保持谨慎乐观的态度。当前市场已经计入了对于基本面较为悲观的预期，同时杠杆率已经处于较低水平，整体系统性风险相对有限，我们认为无需悲观。后续主要操作思路是保持均衡配置，一方面配置低估值品种，另一方面关注业绩改善明显、估值较为合理、长期看具备成长稀缺性的标的，努力改善业绩，力争为投资人来超出市场平均水平的回报。","declarationDate":"2022-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.561Z","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合","pinyin":"gyrxzhblhpzhhxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20175569","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":2525132510,"name":"鄢耀"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=808568","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec5187fea5b3eb044031a","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000001140,"sao":"今年年初在稳增长政策的支持下，经济显现出触底回升的迹象。但3月份的俄乌冲突加重了能源、粮食价格上涨带来的通胀压力，稳增长政策落地的难度提升。同时，国内局部地区的疫情影响内需，一季度经济增长低于年初预期。步入二季度，国内部分城市疫情冲击显著超出预期，物流运输和汽车、半导体等行业供应链一度出现较大问题，经济基本面受到较大影响。同时，受疫情影响，不确定性增加，居民收入预期转差，社会消费负增长；地产销售数据也出现大幅下滑。5月份之后，随着疫情防控政策逐步优化、国务院三十三条等稳增长政策发力、流动性更为宽松，经济数据企稳改善，二季度经济增长呈现底部回升态势。尽管不确定性仍存，但预计经济大概率将步入温和复苏的通道中。  市场表现方面，年初市场对于稳增长抱有较为乐观的预期，但由于赛道行业持仓较为集中、交易较为拥挤，同时市场担忧美联储加息制约国内货币政策空间，市场出现较大幅度的调整，期间依托稳增长政策受益的建筑、地产等行业表现较好。俄乌冲突提升了通胀预期，给制造业企业盈利带来压力，同时引发了地缘冲突升级的担忧，加剧了市场下跌的幅度。金稳委表态提振了市场信心，改变了加速下跌的趋势，市场开始企稳反弹。但4月份的国内局部地区疫情又给市场带来较大幅度的冲击，投资者预期一度转向悲观，4月中下旬出现了快速下跌。5月份，随着复工复产持续推进、疫情防控政策优化、流动性进一步宽松，市场企稳反弹，并在新能源车销量亮眼、地产销售有所改善的数据支撑下持续上行。  操作方面，基金加仓银行、有色、电子，减仓非银、地产、军工。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T13:03:20.558Z","mo":"展望下半年，内需在政策发力和疫情冲击交织的背景下持续修复，外需仍存在不确定性，预计经济大概率处于弱复苏的通道之中。从内需修复的角度看，政策端保持一定的支持力度，同时政策的稳定性预计有所增强；防疫措施进一步优化，预计经济运行受到的扰动将会减小；行业监管已经取得一定成效，未来可以给企业带来稳定的经营环境。整体看，内需修复和经济运行回归正常将带来经济增长和企业盈利的恢复。但相比于过往，经济恢复过程中的潜在不确定性依然较大。美联储控通胀背景下，美国经济软着陆或非大概率事件，这意味着中国经济面临的外部环境恶化的潜在风险依然较高，外需下行的压力始终存在。同时，国内下半年CPI仍然存在上行压力，地产行业供给侧的调整还不明朗。总体看，在不确定性交织的环境下，经济弱复苏或是大概率事件。  在国内弱复苏、海外经济潜在回落压力大的环境下，预计市场还将维持高波动性的特征，整体可能呈现震荡格局。由于此前的悲观预期已经得到修复，考虑到短端利率已经很低，流动性进一步宽松的可能性有限。当前市场整体估值已经回归到相对合理位置，估值系统性提升的机会有限。未来市场上行的主要驱动力将由流动性转为基本面改善。由于前述内外需遇到的情况（在美联储的持续加息下海外需求端回落是大概率事件，国内由于地产行业的结构性问题，需求端的大幅改善难度较大），预计国内企业盈利下半年难以复制2020年疫情后的修复路径，更有可能体现为有限幅度的改善。在这种环境下，基金经理将重点寻求以下几个方面的结构性机会：一是重视高景气行业，如光伏、新能源车等行业的投资机会；二是关注估值合理、拥挤度不高的医药行业；三是注重观察稳增长受益行业的积极变化。","fund":{"_id":3000000001140,"stockCode":"001140","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":22,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":null,"ipoDate":"2015-04-12T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":8318750000,"market":"a","tickerId":1140,"custody":"中国建设银行股份有限公司","name":"工银瑞信总回报灵活配置混合型证券投资基金","shortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合A","fundSecondLevel":"hybrid","__csrcFundId":3844,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.691Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-04-16T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050470000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"工银总回报灵活配置混合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