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领域在对外授权交易的数量与金额上均达到历史峰值，且持续表现出积极的增长势头。我们分析认为，这一趋势的背景逻辑与国内人工智能、新能源汽车等产业的崛起存在相似之处，均可归因于国内在技术人才储备与应用转化方面的长期积累所形成的综合优势。　　在组合管理方面，我们维持了较高比例的高股息资产配置。相关持仓普遍具备4%-5%（年化）的股息回报率，其派息水平展现出较高的稳定性。在当前低利率的市场环境下，我们认为此类资产仍然具备较高配置价值。 此外，组合适度增加了部分估值处于相对低位的制造业公司持仓。尽管该类公司过往因估值较高曾被市场归类为“赛道股”，但其基本面所体现的核心竞争优势依然显著。伴随估值水平的显著回调，当前估值已处于历史区间中较为合理甚至偏低的水平。组合中依然保留了部分周期性资产。虽然短期内相关公司业绩弹性可能相对有限，但其经营状况已显现企稳迹象。在现有估值水平下，我们预期其有望提供相对稳健的投资回报。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:53:25.622Z","mo":"我们预期国内宏观经济整体将保持平稳运行态势。考虑到国内财政政策仍具备较大加杠杆空间，经济增长的下行风险预计在较大程度上具备政策应对的缓冲空间。 海外方面，市场普遍预期美联储可能在年内启动降息周期，若此情形发生，从流动性角度看，可能对包括A股在内的全球权益类资产形成一定支撑。主要的不确定性可能仍来自于潜在的贸易摩擦风险。但考虑到上半年市场已经经历过压力测试，投资者情绪对此类风险的敏感度可能有所降低；同时，预计后续关税措施的范围或力度相对上半年缓和，该风险因素对市场产生的实质影响整体预计相对可控。高股息红利类资产方面，当前其股息率相对于全社会无风险收益率仍然存在具有吸引力的利差，其配置价值持续存在。此外，随着经济增长模式转向高质量发展阶段，预计未来将有更多上市公司会启动或加大现金分红力度。从整体市场结构观察，A股市场已经进入现金分红规模超过股权融资规模的发展阶段。","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1346657","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec2c5d4369c9c836decfe","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000985,"sao":"一季度国内权益市场整体表现平稳，其中沪深300指数下跌1.21个百分点，创业板指数下跌1.77个百分点。受人工智能和机器人产业相关事件的催化，A股泛科技板块交易活跃，但由于这些产业发展尚处于早期，盈利模式和空间并不清晰，且多数公司安全边际不足，所以对我们而言主要以观察和学习为主。另一方面，美国关税政策也给全球贸易市场以及其国内经济增长和通胀前景带来不确定性，一定程度上也抑制了投资者对经济相关度高的蓝筹股的风险偏好。　　组合管理方面，我们的持仓依然集中在相对成熟的行业领域，就我们自己观察来看，经济自然复苏的过程可能已经启动，虽然复苏节奏和力度有不确定性，但是微观层面看，传统行业中一些优质公司的盈利能力似乎有见底的迹象，这一方面得益于经济增长需要有底线的支撑，另一方面得益于这些公司积极调整产品结构、经营节奏以及高效的成本管理能力，同时这些公司的估值即便基于保守的盈利预测也是非常有吸引力，是市场中非常有性价比的资产。","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:53:25.612Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金2025年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1278029","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec2c5d4369c9c836decfd","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000985,"sao":"2024年市场呈现出主题投资为主的特点，有业绩的标的也要通过热门主题实现估值提升。我们前瞻布局的出海板块受到美国加税的风险影响，造船后期价格没有如预期超过历史高点，海风虽有阶段表现但大规模开工拖到了2025年，信创板块的大规模采购也拖到了2025年启动，光伏4季度因供给侧改革预期有所表现但真正兑现效果要看2025年，只有少量与AI相关和两轮车标的走出了良好表现。这些困境反转的板块，目前都处于底部区域，未来大概率会出现较大变化，但要耐心等待静待花开。","declarationDate":"2025-01-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:53:25.604Z","mo":"2025年结构性的机会大概率会比过去两年仅有AI等少数主题投资更多的景气性机会。随着国内外海风的陆续开工，时隔2年多的高景气赛道有望重启，而目前板块估值仅有10-15倍，具备较大修复空间。光伏供给侧改革年后有望大规模启动，目前股价均回到历史底部，部分细分主材如电池、玻璃等供需关系接近供不应求状态。两轮车等消费内需赛道目前估值仅10-15倍，随着以旧换新和新国标推进行业供给集中需求超预期向上的可能会出现。造船大周期继续，未来随着旺季到来船价仍有创新高可能。还有信创、军工等困境反转迎来高景气的不少赛道，目前大部分股价都在低位，但向上空间不小。在诸多资产收益和风险严重不对称的背景下我们有理由乐观，但要静待新一轮谷底到高峰的拐点到来。","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1250562","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec2c5d4369c9c83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源等历史有一定涨幅的板块，则出现由于预期担忧和资金面松动带来的杀估值现象，出现一定下跌。计算机，传媒，通信为主的TMT板块，由于股票位置多处于低位。且由于Chatgpt概念带动，出现了一波较为凌厉的主题投资。    福之祸所依，祸之福所伏。随着过去1-2个季度的复盘，我们能清晰地发现市场总是在不停循环，衰落走向繁荣是最大的投资主线。站在目前的时间点，随着市场热点轮动，资金的抽离和过去基本面的衰弱，让一大批未来有望迎来高增长的行业出现非常低的估值及位置，这些反映了较差的过往或带有部分悲观偏见预期的未来。在低估值已经反映了各种悲观预期后，我们希望在一片焦土和绝望中，寻找未来有望迎来新一轮周期或超预期发展的可能。这些机会大多存在于过去大家不屑观察，冷门，或者被市场或产业打击的行业。其中包括、光储、航运、顺周期的小金属、信创、一带一路、AI等领域。相信随着新一轮的变化发生，会带新一轮的机会。","declarationDate":"2023-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:53:25.553Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金2023年第1季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=881296","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec2c5d4369c9c836decf5","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000985,"sao":"2022年市场经历了两波主要的机会，第一波来源于Q1成长股：由于海外资金面收紧，俄乌战争，疫情超预期等因素导致成长股杀估值杀业绩预期。第一波的机会来源于成长股的在基本面良好前提下的杀估值。第二波的来源在Q4尾声，主要前期经历疫情、房地产严格管控所带来超跌的大消费、大金融、地产产业链、互联网等。在疫情管控政策发生历史性变化的时候，这些超跌的板块，尤其港股出现了巨大的估值修复行情。我们抓住了Q2-Q3高景气类成长股，周期股的投资机会。但是Q4由于另外一些板块超跌带来资金调仓，使得基本面本坚挺的高景气类资产出现了资金跷跷板效应，杀估值的单边下跌。在Q4我们也在底部配置了部分地产产业链，消费，银行等资产，但可惜的是高景气类资产占绝大部分。前者的调仓只是迟滞了组合整体的杀估值，但没有让组合不去调整。我们依然坚守了很多长线成长股的比例，过程中也曾阶段性减少了一部分中长期高景气类资产比例去增配蓝筹估值修复，但效果不是甚佳。总体而言，经历这一跌宕起伏的市场环境，我们获得两个教训。其一，投资机会大多来源于出现过危机和下跌过的地方，逆向策略更加有效。第二，集中投资胜过分散式的对冲，为了胜利要学会不计一城一池得失，敢于放弃一些机会才会取得属于我们的胜利。接下来我们的投资策略将向困境反转类逆向投资策略做集中。","declarationDate":"2023-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:53:25.545Z","mo":"展望未来reopening所带来的国内经济复苏，海外软着陆之后货币环境趋于宽松后，很多场景与2022年出现了180度的大转弯。一些在2022年表现不佳的行业有望迎来困境反转和高速成长的发展期。其中包括中国复苏与海外宽松共振带动下需求向上供给受限的铝镁稀土钼等金属，油轮，造船等高景气向上的周期性行业。也包括大量去年受疫情影响的零售，线下消费类商品和场景，还有包括计算机等相关细分公司。受疫情管控和房地产下行双重压力拐点下的消费建材。在促进经济复苏下，政策预期向上的新能源汽车，以及硅料在去年Q4到年初大幅下降有望刺激需求迎来拐点的光伏储能。还有受疫情影响装机景气恢复式高增长的风电，今年逐渐展开新一轮大发展周期的信创，还有渗透率较低，国内市场星星之火可以燎原的培育钻石等机会。类似2022年Q1的调整，这些下跌过的板块大概率会伴随产业蓬勃发展带来新一轮的投资机会。","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=863620","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec2c5d4369c9c836decf4","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000985,"sao":"三季度市场由于国外利率持续抬升，短期流动性收紧，市场估值呈现收缩。在“估值天花板”压制下，市场机会主要出现于煤炭，石油石化，房地产等短期或阶段景气向上绝对低估值价值股板块。成长股也仅有现在和预期未来持续高增长的股票得到了相对合理估值，其他高达80-90%成长股估值被杀到历史10%甚至以下分位。在大部分成长股杀估值过程中，市场简单“类比效应”起到很大作用。我们进一步分析得出几类主要情况：1，未来行业预期中长期供大于求景气下降杀估值；2，短期景气度边际下降杀估值；3，短期股价高位估值合理难以短期上涨却有潜在或有下行风险杀估值。我们主张以第二层思维看待市场，以上短期简单类比效应带来的“低估值”或带来中长期更大投资机会。1，若出现新需求变量，或阶段供大于求导致需求超预期等，则第一种杀逻辑可能不成立会使价值大修复。2，短期景气下滑但不持续或见底，则带来长期投资机会。3，高位调整到位但基本面向好则必是良机，则耐心等待好位置好时机。总之，我们尽量着眼长远与长期高景气资产同行，但短期市场若不利于此，我们在Q3也尽可能暂时买入部分防御性资产进行一定程度对冲。但相信经历Q3快速而范围巨大的杀估值运动，未来将会有更多机会以便宜价格买入高速增长资产，带来组合整体中长期更大的价值提升，因此我们将会更加前瞻研究，伺机而动。","declarationDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:53:25.537Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金2022年第3季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.go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。下半年最大的变数可能是上半年受压制、订单推迟等的低估值板块，这些行业很多拥有中长期的逻辑，而且可能因为疫情、以及期间的国际形势等影响，在机会来临时候比以往会更大。比如光伏，疫情综合成本大幅下降、全球货币超发使得利率大幅下降，会大幅度地刺激需求。同样，国际形势纷繁复杂，国家更要加强自身科技产业链实力，国产基础软硬件行业未来的发展有望比原来的成长空间更为广阔。光伏、国产化基础软硬件、5G智慧灯杆、新基建等行业符合长期发展方向仍值得长期看好。","fund":{"_id":3000000000985,"stockCode":"000985","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","followedNum":15,"blackenedNum":0,"status":"normal","exchange":"jj","fundType":"stock","ipoDate":"2015-01-07T16:00:00.000Z","setUpScale":2703300000,"market":"a","tickerId":985,"custody":"中国银行股份有限公司","name":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金","shortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","fundSecondLevel":"company","__csrcFundId":2425,"fundStatus":"normal","lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:48.244Z","masterFundFlag":1,"inceptionDate":"2015-02-01T16:00:00.000Z","fundCollectionId":4000050080000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"嘉实逆向策略股票","pinyin":"jsnxclgpxzqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20761418","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":1206200030,"name":"栾峰"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"嘉实逆向策略股票型证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=464369","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}