window.pageData = {"stock":{"_id":3000000000583,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","fundCollection":{"exchange":"jjgs","stockType":"fund_collection","stockCode":"50750000","tickerId":50750000,"name":"江信基金管理有限公司"},"managers":[{"name":"马超然","stockType":"fund_manager","stockCode":"db20900933","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480}],"hotMetrics":{"fss":{"stockId":3000000000583,"type":"fss","f_s_s_d":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_ins_h_s_r":0.8367,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_hy":0.09299999999999997,"f_ins_h_s_r_c_1y":-0.0907,"f_ind_h_s_r":0.16329999999999997,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_hy":-0.093,"f_ind_h_s_r_c_1y":0.09069999999999998,"f_h_a":857,"f_h_s_a":155304,"last_data_date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z"},"fpr":{"stockId":3000000000583,"type":"fpr","f_p_r_fys_ssc":7467,"f_p_r_fys_ssrp":0.03790517010447361,"f_p_r_m1_ssc":7559,"f_p_r_m1_ssrp":0.9700979094998677,"f_p_r_m3_ssc":7481,"f_p_r_m3_ssrp":0.10788770053475936,"f_p_r_m6_ssc":7253,"f_p_r_m6_ssrp":0.055295091009376726,"f_p_r_y1_ssc":6814,"f_p_r_y1_ssrp":0.30397768971084693,"f_p_r_y2_ssc":5836,"f_p_r_y2_ssrp":0.27934875749785776,"f_p_r_y3_ssc":4885,"f_p_r_y3_ssrp":0.2989352989352989,"f_p_r_y5_ssc":3287,"f_p_r_y5_ssrp":0.1043822276323798,"f_p_r_y10_ssc":687,"f_p_r_y10_ssrp":0.543731778425656,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssc":7301,"f_cagr_p_r_fs_ssrp":0.08534246575342466},"fp":{"stockId":3000000000583,"type":"fp","f_p_r_fys":0.03770842894294013,"f_p_r_m1":0.0008114488049570934,"f_p_r_m3":0.010577281191806343,"f_p_r_m6":0.0374703678213657,"f_p_r_y1":0.025937689050211654,"f_p_r_y3":0.1086867696330791,"f_p_r_y5":0.2428545254672021,"f_p_r_d1":0.0000761556621735604,"f_p_r_y2":0.06457940991839228,"f_p_r_y10":0.40728256040582433,"last_data_date":"2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z"},"ff":{"stockId":3000000000583,"type":"ff","f_m_f":323160,"f_m_f_r":0.003,"f_c_f":107720,"f_c_f_r":0.001,"f_m_a_c_f":430880,"f_m_a_c_f_r":0.004,"f_m_c_f_d":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","f_c_fr":0.001,"f_fr_d":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","f_m_fr":0.003,"f_mac_fr":0.004},"f_nlacan":{"stockId":3000000000583,"type":"f_nlacan","f_nv_d":"2026-04-23T16:00:00.000Z","f_nv":1.3567,"f_nv_cr":0.0002211736950750165},"f_as":{"stockId":3000000000583,"type":"f_as","f_tas":68983034.15640001,"f_tas_d":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z"}},"masterSlaveFunds":[],"bondHoldings":[{"_id":"69e7d7226201787ae12a4893","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000000583,"stockCode":"019792","stockName":"25国债19","holdings":565000,"marketCap":56926675,"netValueRatio":0.825,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-21T19:59:30.058Z"},{"_id":"69e7d7226201787ae12a4894","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000000583,"stockCode":"019827","stockName":"26国债01","holdings":90000,"marketCap":9023762,"netValueRatio":0.1308,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-21T19:59:30.061Z"},{"_id":"69e7d7226201787ae12a4895","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","fundId":3000000000583,"stockCode":"115882","stockName":"23晋中01","holdings":10000,"marketCap":1028016,"netValueRatio":0.0149,"lastUpdated":"2026-04-21T19:59:30.064Z"}]},"list":[{"_id":"69e7d5636201787ae129eed5","date":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-04-20T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2026年第一季度，产品的投资策略保持以可转债为主要方向，伴随开年权益市场显著上涨，获得不错的收益，符合上一季度对于含权资产在波动中曲折向上的基本判断。随着指数多次新高，市场估值显著抬升，叠加外部地缘政治局势恶化，市场风险偏好显著降低。全年来看，上升的方向判断不断，路径的曲折程度可能超出原先预想。所以在第一季度中执行了通过仓位调整获取超额收益的方针，在波谲云诡的外部环境下，规避波动，等待不确定性消散再提高仓位入场。如果择时频率太高，自然而然就会导致择时胜率低。但是当各个条件都逐渐清晰时，也要勇于决策，降低择时频率是提高择时胜率的关键方法。投资中是免不了预测的，但是预测的成功率同样取决于时间，随机性会随着时间推移而形成一个微笑曲线，即短期与长期的预测精度都很低，但是中期的可能性是能够通过贝叶斯推理而逐渐提高其概率的确定性。结合这两个观点，接下来的第二季度，将会观察世界变化，逐步调整概率判断，确定投资交易方案，准备好各种情况的应对。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-21T19:52:03.779Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2026年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1469734","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69ce64caf45dd25f43f62563","date":"2025-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2026-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"从9月份开始，产品的主要投资方向调整为可转债，投资方向主要着眼于资源、化工、能源等偏上游的领域。由于各行业轮动速度快，高科技行业估值水平不稳定，因此在不确定的世界里寻找确定性，对于个体的判断容错率小，对于大趋势的判断反而准确率更高一些。在地缘政治发生深刻变化的过程中，各资源国对于自身资源的管控会进一步提升，各工业国对于资源的争夺也会越发激烈，这是资源价格上涨的原动力。而能源、化工等中游行业也会受益于下游需求提升，虽然不确定哪一个下游企业最终取胜，但是卖铲人的收益确定性更高。因此在这些基本判断被世界变化证伪之前，产品的投资策略仍将遵循以上的原则。","lastUpdated":"2026-04-02T12:44:58.584Z","mo":"2026年中国经济预计将呈现“温和复苏、结构优化”特征，实际GDP增速预计完成5%左右的目标，重要的是CPI与PPI逐步摆脱通缩压力，名义增长动能边际改善。政策层面延续“积极财政+适度宽松货币”组合，货币政策仍有降息空间，但是时机不确定性高，流动性环境保持充裕。债券市场受基本面回暖与政策宽松对冲影响，利率中枢难有趋势性上行，但是受到通胀的影响，期限利差大概率陡峭化。政策面展望：货币政策从总量趋向于结构，重点倾向于目标行业与通胀回升，避免大水漫灌。财政政策持续保驾护航，对经济的影响力与日俱增，十五五的开局之年，对“稳增长、防风险”的政策组合充满信心。2026年中国经济预计将呈现“温和复苏、结构优化”特征，实际GDP增速预计完成5%左右的目标，重要的是CPI与PPI逐步摆脱通缩压力，名义增长动能边际改善。政策层面延续“积极财政+适度宽松货币”组合，货币政策仍有降息空间，但是时机不确定性高，流动性环境保持充裕。权益市场在估值水平得到修复之后，后续市场可能将更多关注于业绩与业绩想象空间，因此行业与个股的波动可能增加，但是指数方面“慢牛”可期。政策面展望：货币政策从总量趋向于结构，重点倾向于目标行业与通胀回升，避免大水漫灌。财政政策持续保驾护航，对经济的影响力与日俱增，十五五的开局之年，对“稳增长、防风险”的政策组合充满信心。对于权益类的资产，需要注意的是，定价权可能正在转移，要顺势而为，有勇气接纳波动存在，观察决定性资金的流转，是2026年潜在超额收益的来源。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1456019","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f64","date":"2025-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2025-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2025年三季度末，由于债券市场的赔率与胜率都因为宏观经济走势、未来发展预期而发生深刻改变，因此产品的投资策略转向以可转债为主要方向。由于可转债组合构建需要时间，因此初期采用银行做底、资源为盾、反内卷为矛的策略。通过银行转债尽快提高产品含权量，抓住眼下大宗商品趋势性机会首先配置资源类、大宗商品类的转债，反内卷与科技发展作为一个长期发展政策，过程不会一蹴而就，因此作为逢低买入的进攻性品种。在四季度，由于法币认可度下降、地缘政治难以缝合、资源国政策收紧等等因素共振，资源类，尤其是握有储量的企业，将会受益于资源价格上涨，大宗商品的上涨可能刚刚开始，叙事在短期内还看不到结束的情况，如果叠加中美经济周期共振向上，那么想象空间将会更大。因此商品类、资源类方向将是接下来投研的重点。反内卷相关的光伏与锂电方向也是重要的方向，核心在于目前扭转通缩的决心已经得到确认。中国的新能源技术全球领先但是如何转化到收入与利润上，将是接下来的重点。既然市场自身的力量在完全竞争的状态下催生出先进生产力，如何通过协会指导等合纵连横的方式保护行业进而在全球市场争取应有地位，是接下来各企业体现价值的重要时间。科技类产业相关资产的波动率会非常高，因为前进的道路九死一生，真正能走出来的技术与企业少之又少，因此从投资角度来说，分散布置且不可恋战。对最终能够诞生出伟大企业充满乐观、对能够始终拿住伟大企业保持悲观。对于四季度，相信含权类资产依旧会走在牛市的轨道上，在权益市场完成这一次历史使命前，波动永远是机会。","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.629Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1378982","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f63","date":"2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"上半年的债券市场受到经济基本面、逆周期政策、外部世界政治经济波动加剧的影响，波动也随之增加。经济基本面数据上半年稳中有升，但是市场预期并没有逆转。货币政策作为逆周期政策的重要组成部分，宝贵的政策空间在等待潜在的经济冲击。外部世界动荡，国际局势给经济活动带来极大的不确定性。在经济基本面数据波动与市场预期中，伴随着逆周期政策逐步出台，市场利率经历了剧烈波动，一季度利率整体大幅上行，既有对政策的预期，也有止盈调仓的市场需求。二季度利率重回稳步下行的态势，受到OMO利率水平的约束，进一步进入较为显著的区间波动。信用债方面由于上半年的低利率情况，信用利差收缩较为明显，对于流动性补偿越来越少，是一个新的市场变化，需要密切关注市场对于信用债交易的流动性要求。组合操作上，本基金紧密跟踪宏观基本面、政策走向及市场态势，及时作出应对和灵活交易，保持灵活的久期调节。","declarationDate":"2025-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.624Z","mo":"展望下半年，货币政策将继续保持市场流动性合理充裕，国家完成全年经济增长目标、保持稳中向好的经济发展态势，是毋庸置疑的。在加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策的指导下，尤其是现金补贴需求侧这一政策落实手段的重大变化，经济基本面持续向好是值得期待的。在这一过程中，债券市场也不需要过多担心由于经济数据向好而导致收益率水平整体上行。不可否认的是，情绪会使得波动率显著增加，但是在国债、地方债发行量较大的事情，货币政策配合保持较低的均衡融资成本，也是值得期待的。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1338452","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f62","date":"2025-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2025年的第一季度跌宕起伏，市场震荡区间显著扩大，多空双方激烈交锋。一季度政策变量，尤其是货币政策的具体措施给市场造成很大影响，叠加市场本身对于降准降息的预期，长端利率债的波动速率也比去年更大，经常是还没反应过来一波行情已经走完。展望第二季度，可能是一个等待政策产生效果的时期，外部环境的不确定性很大，因为更需要以我为主的战略定力，应对比预测更重要。第一季度中，政策预期与年初配置两股力量同时作用之下所形成的利率低位可能是今年的最低点，由于配置力量会逐渐衰减，因而再度冲击低位需要外部环境进一步恶化，基本面数据难见起色，等等新增变量同时作用。与此同时，长端利率所形成的高位，也需要超预期的数据面反弹，以及权益市场跷跷板效应的助攻，才有望突破。整体来看，目前还是一个强预期弱现实的局面，经济大局除了顶层设计与政策驱动，还需要每一个人努力生活，积小胜成大胜，为小家成大家，与诸君共勉！","declarationDate":"2025-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.619Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2025年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1265841","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f61","date":"2024-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2024年始终存在着市场判断与基本面走势的预期差，市场参与者的看法与经济政策取向并不一致，尤其是在时间与节奏上有显著不同，因而导致了市场波动幅度加大。2024年对于经济来说，是修炼内功的转型期，因而反映到经济数据与金融市场走势上低于市场参与者预期的概率比较大，这也是贯穿全年的主要矛盾。以上是利率债的波动来源，对于信用债而言，受到金融机构风控要求与市场资金面的影响较大，应注意标的与负债端稳定性的匹配，才能避免交易冲击所带来的资本亏损。 报告期内，投资组合注意持仓的分散度，以信用债作为票息收益的主要来源，通过利率债及时调整久期，保持杠杆操作的灵活性。","declarationDate":"2025-01-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.614Z","mo":"基本面展望：中央经济工作会议提出的稳增长政策和一揽子增量政策的持续发力为2025年的经济增长保驾护航。外部态势非常复杂，确实对于经济发展的弹性带来很大挑战，但是以中国的经济体量，经济发展的底线始终是以我为主。5%左右的经济发展目标已经被市场所消化，未来的增量信息将集中于通胀预期变化，消费领域的增量变化。虽然基本面的变化难以一蹴而就，只要有积极的边际变化，市场将会给予充分定价。政策面展望：货币政策适度宽松的基调在基本面扭转充分体现之前，大概率将会维持，尤其是2025年世界整体进入降息周期之后，货币政策的外部空间也会增加。2025年即便有出口上的潜在冲击，在保护内部经济发展的核心需求下，货币政策也将维持宽松的态势，需要修正的是市场对此可能超预期。财政政策在2025年值得期待，一是有需求二是有基础，财政政策有发力的空间，经济增长目标也需要财政政策的保驾护航。房地产行业仍在调整期，基建从普遍需求转向攻坚克难与针对性改善，各方面都需要财政政策对经济发展有新的支持。市场走势展望：从经济基本面的修复与适度宽松的货币政策来看，债券市场预计将处于牛市的轨道上不变，只是相较于过去两年顺畅的下行而言，2025年的波动可能显著加大虽然降息降准是应有之意，但是由于利率处于绝对值较低的位置，所以空间有限。与此同时，“更加积极的财政政策”正在路上，这也是2025年市场走势的新变量。因此结合这些情况来看，利率债需要耐心等待脉冲式上行时建仓，通过适当的波段交易增厚收益，用以弥补较低的票息收益。信用债的流动性分化十分明显，从兑付风险上来看，城投债安全性较高，但是估值波动风险与流动性风险需要重视，市场参与者需要根据自身负债端情况调整投资方向。整体上看，2025年虽有颠簸，相信风景仍旧美丽。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1249615","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f60","date":"2024-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"三季度在最后时刻扭转了持续了相当长时光的稳步下行，但是难言债券收益率的走势反转，更多的是下行趋势中的反弹。三季度末，政治局会议对经济局势做出新判断与新安排，很快各部门的政策具体落地，改变了社会对经济的整体预期，对资本市场尤其是权益市场的情绪起到非常强的提振作用。其中货币政策既有原有的呵护也有针对的创新，财政政策与地产政策都在逐步出台。根据以上这些重要的举措的效果与精神内涵，债券市场在季末出现显著回调是很正常的反应。但是各项政策从落实到体现在经济基本面数据上，还需要一定的过程，实物工作量的形成需要时间，因此债券市场作为最为忠实基本面数据的市场，改变收益率下行的趋势仍需要等待。其次，落地速度最快的货币政策首先直达的是债券市场，omo利率已经明确为新的基准利率，1.5%的新利率为市场的波动提供了锚定点，对短端利率影响很大。经济基本面所影响的经济增速、通胀数据更多体现在长端利率上，因此短端债券收益率的确定性会更大一些。经济复苏发展离不开宽松的货币环境，而宽松的货币环境不会让债券收益率显著反弹，四季度中，出现合理的收益率曲线可能性更大，因此以omo利率为锚，以合理斜率为展望，以经济发展预期为波动弹性，为了接下来的波段交易提供了空间，市场进行博弈阶段。本基金积极调整仓位，根据市场的变化动态调整投资组合的久期及杠杆水平，均衡投资组合的流动性与收益性。","declarationDate":"2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.609Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1173269","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f5f","date":"2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2024上半年对于经济来说是调整结构的阵痛时间，在未来，当跨过去艰难时光回首这段时间，相信大家会有“关关难过关关过”释怀感。但是对于我们此时此刻身处其中，需要扛过每分每秒。上半年的基本面除了GDP增长率仍在目标区间以外，其他要素表现都弱于预期。但是从经济结构来看，新质生产力的增长与占比在不断走强。有着这样的基本面基础，上半年的债券市场表现较好，收益率曲线呈现整体下行的牛平形态，各期限债券轮番走强，各类利差均压缩到历史极值。各市场参与主体已见未来，但未知何时来，各主体从自身考核、目标出发，混杂不同的需求，减缓了经济与市场出清转向的速度。报告期内，投资组合重视票息保护，重视运用久期策略，维持收益率曲线正常形态，谨慎防范风险，保持稳健中庸的操作策略，将继续严格管理，确保基金投资的灵活性与流动性安全。","declarationDate":"2024-07-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.604Z","mo":"从上半年的宏观数据来看，上半年的GDP增长率达到了目标区间。下半年的关键指标在于微观数据与结构调整情况能否支持5%的经济发展目标。接下来央行直接参与国债市场买卖，是一个货币投放方式与货币政策体系的重大变革，下半年中，这一顶层设计的执行操作情况将会是债券市场的重要外生变量。美国大选的结果也会对国内政策应对产生重大影响，在大选前，美国是否降息也会对国内的货币政策空间产生显著的影响。展望未来，债市走势主要受基本面影响。由于实体需求不足、风险偏好降低和配置力量增强，债市环境相对有利，但政策环境对利率债下行空间有制约。央行对资金面的管理精细度与呵护态度一直保持不变。与此同时，这里也有经济修复期中宽松货币政策的支持，所以对于2024年三季度的资金面，仍旧保持宽松的展望，可以说，目前的债券市场目前的风险来源于自身的波动，其他定价要素均有利于债券市场走势。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1141774","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f5e","date":"2024-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"一季度债券市场收益率延续去年四季度的走势保持震荡下行。1月份债券市场受降准、降息消息影响，外加当月债券净供给量相对较少而机构的配置意愿较强导致供需关系不平衡的情况下，1月债券市场收益率下行速度较快，尤其是长端国债的行情走出超出市场预期的表现。除此之外权益市场的持续性低迷和房地产仍处于寻底阶段也使得市场风险偏好降低，助推债券市场收益率快速下行。2月在宏观基本面修复仍然相对较缓、资金面较稳定且货币政策宽松预期持续的背景下，叠加降准落地、机构“资产荒”供需不平衡和股债跷跷板等多重因素共同作用下，当月债市继续走牛，长、短端利率整体震荡下行。10年期国债收益率较上月底下行约10BP，1年期国债收益率下行约9BP。信用债收益率多数持续下行，除地产债外整体利差收窄。3月债市经历了短暂的震荡调整后整体仍表现牛市格局，但下行速度减缓，下行空间有限。本月央行释放了降准预期信号，在“宽货币”预期加强、机构资产持续欠配以及经济基本面有所改善等局面下，当月1年期国债收益率下行约6BP，10年期国债收益率下行约4BP。信用债收益率较上月整体上行。一季度债券市场收益率整体一路下行，短期债市出现明显利空的概率是较小的，但是由于利率债在本季度的下行幅度较大，预计短时间内进一步下行的空间有限，仍然以震荡为主。信用债在地方政府债务风险得到有效缓释的背景下，当前风险可控。后续关注基本面数据、政策出台及新债发行供给压力对债市的影响。本基金积极调整仓位，根据市场的变化动态调整投资组合的久期及杠杆水平，均衡投资组合的流动性与收益性。","declarationDate":"2024-04-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.599Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2024年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1065998","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f5d","date":"2023-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2023年是债券收益率大幅下行的一年，然而资产价格并不直接完全反映经济的态势。虽然名义利率处于历史低位，但是由于低通货膨胀的缘故，实际利率反而处于历史高位。叠加权益市场下行所带来的情绪冲击，使得债券收益率不断地超预期下行。资本利得在产品2023年的收益贡献中不可忽视，也是2023年独特的年度特征。在利率走势高歌猛进的过程中，应时刻注意风向的变化，虽然基本面并不支持利率向上，但是从资产价格本身的特征来看，是可能对于基本面过度定价的。报告期内，投资组合注意持仓的分散度，通过利率债及时调整久期，保持杠杆操作的灵活性，合理利用定开基金负债稳定的特点进行资产配置。","declarationDate":"2024-01-18T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.594Z","mo":"基本面展望：虽然内忧外患仍然存在，但利好因素也不容忽视。（1）国内房地产行业持续下行，负增长已连续两年。展望2024年，虽然房地产行业仍有下行风险，但三大工程的推出将一定程度上减缓下滑幅度。房地产对经济的拖累主要体现在负的财富效应，居民财富的减少将给消费带来压力。（2）对外方面，短期来看，全球库存周期可能进入补库存阶段，刺激我国出口增速。去库存阶段已经持续了一年半，且库存去化较为充分。长期来看，逆全球化依然是趋势。今年是美国的大选之年，特朗普当选的可能性会影响到市场对于我国出口的预期。政策面展望：货币宽松空间仍然存在，配合财政政策发力。考虑到经济基本面，货币政策仍然需要保持宽松。降准已实施，未来可能会围绕降息进行讨论。决定是否降息的一个重要因素是美联储的降息节奏，而最近美联储的表态叠加美国通胀的内生性，预计降息周期可能在下半年开始，这也将为我国的降息打开操作空间。市场走势展望：（1）利率债方面，一季度政策集中发力可能带来经济数据好转，但如果后续“弱现实”的预期得到进一步证实，并结合股债跷跷板效应，整体利率债可能处于低位震荡。（2）信用债方面，全年将受城投债供给收缩、国有银行和保险机构二级永续债扩容以及产业债稀缺性提升等因素的影响，供需关系、市场利率波动和流动性溢价将成为博弈的焦点。然而，由于信用债供给下降的保护作用，信用利差大幅扩张的概率较低。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=1053666","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f5c","date":"2023-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"市场在三季度中浓缩了一个周期往复。在二季度末的降息后，短暂的止盈行情不改债券利率的持续下行，市场仍期待着更有力的宽松政策。直到8月中旬市场资金面极端宽松，杠杆交易泛滥，十年国债在突破2.6%后，也无如过往一样的大量讨论，市场的钟摆终于来到尽头。8月经济数据使得今年完成全年经济目标的难度陡然增加，因此大量力度更强的刺激政策出台，力求扭转局面。市场比经济的敏感度更高，钟摆迅速掉头，十年国债短时间内便回到MLF+15BP的经验区间上限，三季度末的资金面也比预想中更为紧张。有足够的理由相信，经济数据的表征与内核可能在第四季度发生一定程度的脱离，在外部地缘政治混乱程度加剧，各大国即将迎来大选的敏感时期，无法期待整体经济发生本质改善。在大周期不改的整体框架下，继续抓住小周期的脉冲式机会，在资产价格触及预设点时，应坚决执行预案，相信周期的力量。管理人根据债券市场运行情况积极调整债券投资策略，在兼顾投资组合的流动性和收益性条件下，维持稳定的杠杆比例。","declarationDate":"2023-10-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.589Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=984713","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f5b","date":"2023-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"上半年的债券市场走出一个小牛市，虽然在半年末降息后迎来止盈的压力，但是由于较为宽松的资金环境，使得债券市场仍旧保持大趋势不变。但是对于新的资金来说，较低的利率水平使得再配置压力很大。报告期内，管理人根据债券市场运行情况积极调整债券投资策略，在兼顾投资组合的流动性和收益性条件下，维持稳定的杠杆比例","declarationDate":"2023-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.584Z","mo":"上半年的宏观数据实现了年初既定的GDP增长目标，因此逆周期的调节政策也有较强的定力。展望未来，市场预期在不断变化，但是经济复苏脚步平稳，政策定力强，预计整体流动性继续维持目前宽松格局。根据目前的宏观经济情况来看，进一步的大规模刺激政策可能性较低。在上半年债牛之后，债券市场中周期的力量，回归中枢的驱动力将占据上风，好消息可能已经被充分定价，价格对坏消息的敏感程度显著上升。但是在利率总体下行的大趋势中，利率脉冲式的短期上行是配置的时间窗口，值得好好把握。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=956632","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f5a","date":"2023-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"一季度，国内经济逐步走出疫情的影响，整体显示出良好的恢复趋势。资金利率波动加大，中枢回到政策利率之上。政策层面保持了一定的克制，更注重呵护经济内生修复。债市方面，利率先上后下，信用利差也明显收窄。在基本面不太有利的情况下，管理人继续坚持票息策略，不参与长端博弈。","declarationDate":"2023-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.579Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2023年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=878857","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f59","date":"2022-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"报告期内，组合以利率债配置和回购交易为主，转债择机进行了波段操作，全年取得了良好的收益。由于市场行情和负债结构的变化，未来预计降低利率债仓位，增加AA级信用品种的配置。","declarationDate":"2023-01-17T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.574Z","mo":"展望上半年，“稳增长”仍然是宏观主线，经济复苏是大趋势。在经济恢复常态前，央行仍将维持资金面宽松。当前长端处于逆风方向，短端的票息收益较为确定。从品种来看，利率债价值较为中性，信用债随着利差大幅走扩性价比较高。年初以来可转债市场估值上行，溢价率位于历史较高分位数。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=867697","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f58","date":"2022-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"三季度，各地购房政策不断放松，但地产仍在磨底。奥密克戒疫情多地频发，拖累了居民消费的恢复。货币政策继续维持宽松，基本面整体利好债市。股市经历了一波大幅反弹后又再次回落寻底。报告期内，组合以利率债和回购为主，并适当增加了低价转债的配置。","declarationDate":"2022-10-24T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.569Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=801485","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f57","date":"2022-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"二季度疫情造成经济下行压力超出预期，形成阶段性底部。后续随着国内疫情的有效控制，防疫政策的积极调整，以及各种稳增长政策的不断发力，经济将逐步恢复。报告期内，组合以利率债和回购为主，转债部分进行了一些波段操作，取得了良好的收益。","declarationDate":"2022-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.563Z","mo":"通胀方面，预计下半年CPI温和震荡抬升，PPI继续高位回落。在经济动能尚待恢复背景下，货币政策基调仍旧偏宽松。债券收益率预计维持区间震荡，单边上行风险较低，但仍需要关注经济复苏超预期和资金利率向政策利率回归的可能性。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=780082","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f56","date":"2022-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"今年GDP增长目标定为5.5%左右，这是一个比较高的位置。虽然受到奥密克戎疫情的扰动，但是从历史来看，近三十年来中国官方GDP增长率低于目标增长率只有2014年，且仅低了0.1%，所以要相信政府稳增长的决心和能力。从货币政策来看，央行表态比较明确，在上半年变数不大。3月份股市政策底已现，从当前股债的性价比和机会来看，接下来会更加重视权益类资产。报告期内，组合以利率债和回购为主，转债部分进行了一些波段操作，预计到下一个报告期内会维持这个策略。","declarationDate":"2022-04-21T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.558Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2022年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=724875","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f55","date":"2021-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"报告期内，组合以利率债和短久期城投债为主，整体上采用票息策略，并通过少量可转债的波段操作增强收益。","declarationDate":"2022-01-23T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.553Z","mo":"预计2022年中国经济将企稳回升，全年呈“前低后高”。随着海外复工复产加速和美国财政补贴退出，国内的出口可能逐步回落。消费距离疫情前仍有较大差距，后续修复的节奏在很大程度上会受疫情扰动。投资端从政策传导至经济的时滞可能在半年以上，地产的不确定性较大。通胀方面，PPI逐步下行，CPI短期无虞，下半年可能升至3%以上。债市预计全年震荡，上半年机会好于下半年，宜见好就收。股市盈利增速回落，流动性边际改善，估值大概率收缩，总量上难有较大机会。由于中美货币政策错位、疫情持续反复、国际地缘政治冲突等因素的影响，管理人意识到现阶段对未来的预测很可能是不准确的，将保持乐观、开放、进取的心态，不断学习和反思，及时对市场变化做出应对，力争以优异和稳定的业绩回报基金持有人。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=708636","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f54","date":"2021-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"三季度，地产下行，国内疫情有所反复，部分地区汛情较为严重，能耗双控致使一些省份拉闸限电，上游资源价格高企抑制了中下游企业的扩张，经济景气度开始下滑。不过受地方债供给加速、银行理财整改、美联储Taper临近等因素的影响导致行情不太顺畅。未来短期内地产和城投政策难以明显放松。货币政策既要提供经济转型和应对内外压力所需要的合理充裕的流动性环境，又要管好总闸门，不让市场的钱溢出来。债市处于有利但空间不大的局面。报告期内，持仓的部分城投债到期兑付，在临近下一次开放期的情况下，配置一些兼具流动性和安全边际的品种。","declarationDate":"2021-10-25T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.548Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=651415","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f53","date":"2021-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"一季度利率债收益率先上后下。1月下旬央行公开市场投放不及预期，资金面持续紧张，隔夜回购利率连续超过10%，投资者担忧货币政策收紧。受春节期间美债大跌、国际油价大涨、国内消费超预期的影响，节后第一天10年期国债冲高至3.29%。进入3月份以来，虽然基本面对债市不利，但由于资金持续宽松、供给压力不大、机构的久期和杠杆普遍较低，债市收益率总体下行。二季度，受地方债发行进度缓慢和资金面持续宽松的影响，利率债整体呈现震荡下行走势，信用利差也随之压缩。报告期内，持仓主要以利率债和低价转债配置为主，对有一定涨幅的持仓转债进行了减持，六月中下旬开始逐步配置了一些年内到期的城投债。","declarationDate":"2021-07-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.543Z","mo":"从6月和二季度数据来看，经济整体依然较好，结构上不均衡，大量的中小企业仍面临加大的成本压力和经营困难。下半年房地产和外需存在逐步弱化压力，财政支出有望实现对冲。CPI总体平稳，PPI可能见顶回落，通胀压力不大。由于疫情的反复，同时当前中小企业的经营发展处在一个比较重要的位置，货币政策没有收紧预期。地产三道红线和银保监会15号文加剧了高收益资产的稀缺，机构配置压力导致债券收益率易下难上。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=628043","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f52","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"一季度利率债收益率先上后下。1月下旬央行公开市场投放不及预期，资金面持续紧张，隔夜回购利率连续超过10%，投资者担忧货币政策收紧。受春节期间美债大跌、国际油价大涨、国内消费超预期的影响，节后第一天10年期国债冲高至3.29%。进入3月份以来，虽然基本面对债市不利，但由于资金持续宽松、供给压力不大、机构的久期和杠杆普遍较低，债市收益率总体下行。报告期内，持仓以利率债和低价转债配置为主，未做太多调整。","date":"2021-03-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-04-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.538Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2021年第一季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=567384","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f51","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2020年一季度，新冠肺炎疫情成为影响大类资产表现及其节奏的重要变量。债券市场一季度再现牛市，10年期国债收益率下行幅度超过50bp，已经突破2016年低点，且短端下行幅度大于长端，曲线整体呈现陡峭化下移。从二季度开始，随着国内、国外相继复工复产，市场情绪逐步恢复稳定，重回流动性宽松之下的基本面修复逻辑，疫情成为市场扰动而非决定性因素。4月超预期的进出口数据和金融数据相继出炉后，前期过度悲观的经济预期开始修正，同时央行的货币政策重心发生变化，不再将稳增长、保就业作为唯一目标，开始重视防风险、防范套利，流动性边际收紧，并创新直达实体经济的货币政策工具。债券市场从4月底开始乐极生悲，10年期国债收益率从低点上行37bp。三季度，在国内疫情有力控制、经济数据持续恢复的环境下，央行的货币政策也逐步回归正常化，资金面维持“紧平衡”，短端回购利率中枢抬升，波动加大。加上创历史新高的利率债和地方政府债供给影响，导致债市第三季度继续走弱。四季度，信用违约事件扰动债券市场。华晨、永煤先后违约，不仅打破了国企信仰，还令市场对“逃废债”模式的推广产生了担忧。超预期的违约事件导致二级市场出现挤兑现象，非银机构被动去杠杆，中短端利率债和高等级信用债被大量抛售。一级市场多只债券募集困难，融资受阻。面对市场不断发酵的恐慌情绪，11月下旬金融委会议定调后永煤处置进度提速，央行通过MLF和交易所大量投放呵护流动性，利率债在超调后企稳回落，但信用市场的冲击仍在持续。报告期内，管理人根据产品特点采用票息策略，以短久期高收益信用债为主，并通过少量可转债增强收益。","date":"2020-12-30T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2021-01-19T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.533Z","mo":"预计2021年中国经济将延续复苏态势，全年呈“前高后低”，全年GDP实际同比增速为9%～10%。出口方面，随着全球疫苗推广，各国产能将逐步恢复，中国出口份额将有所回落，但全球经济复苏有利于出口保持高景气度。内需方面，2021年是“十四五”开局之年，保持经济运行在合理区间仍是经济增长的重要目标，政策不急转弯也意味着财政和货币政策转弯相对温和。随着经济复苏，居民收入将稳步增长，居民消费信心回升，消费有望加快修复。制造业投资预计全年保持两位数增长。基建或保持稳中有升。鉴于近期地产监管政策不断升级，房企融资持续收紧，预计全年地产投资增速将下滑。预计2021年CPI呈现相对温和状态，可能会在2%附近，不会对货币政策造成太大的干扰。受产品规模的限制，管理人计划到下一个开放期之间只投资利率债和可转债。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2020年年度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=550959","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f50","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2020年三季度，在国内疫情有力控制、经济数据持续恢复的环境下，央行的货币政策也逐步回归正常化，资金面维持“紧平衡”，短端回购利率中枢抬升，波动加大。加上创历史新高的利率债和地方政府债供给影响，导致债市第三季度继续走弱。报告期内，管理人继续采用票息策略，以短久期高收益信用债为主，转债根据市场波动择机进行了部分调整。","date":"2020-09-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-10-27T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.528Z","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2020年第三季度报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=488728","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}},{"_id":"69aec20ad4369c9c836d8f4f","stockId":3000000000583,"sao":"2020年一季度，新冠肺炎疫情成为影响大类资产表现及其节奏的重要变量。债券市场一季度再现牛市，10年期国债收益率下行幅度超过50bp，已经突破2016年低点，且短端下行幅度大于长端，曲线整体呈现陡峭化下移。从二季度开始，随着国内、国外相继复工复产，市场情绪逐步恢复稳定，重回流动性宽松之下的基本面修复逻辑，疫情成为市场扰动而非决定性因素。4月超预期的进出口数据和金融数据相继出炉后，前期过度悲观的经济预期开始修正，同时央行的货币政策重心发生变化，不再将稳增长、保就业作为唯一目标，开始重视防风险、防范套利，流动性边际收紧，并创新直达实体经济的货币政策工具。债券市场从4月底开始乐极生悲，10年期国债收益率从低点上行37bp，且跌势未尽。上半年转债指数先扬后抑，2月末创出新高后回调，转股溢价率水平在5月出现明显压缩，上半年中证转债指数下跌1.84%。报告期内，管理人继续采用票息策略，以短久期高收益信用债为主，并适度增加可转债的配置。","date":"2020-06-29T16:00:00.000Z","declarationDate":"2020-07-20T16:00:00.000Z","lastUpdated":"2026-03-09T12:50:18.522Z","mo":"展望下半年，经济V型反转的趋势确立，GDP到年底有望回升至6%。从CPI的结构看，除猪肉外，服务、非食品、核心CPI都很低，下半年CPI将逐渐下行，PPI将震荡回升。政策方面，货币政策不存在进一步收紧的环境，整体会回归正常化。预计债券市场呈现震荡格局。","fund":{"_id":3000000000583,"__csrcFundId":3639,"stockCode":"000583","shortName":"江信聚福","fundSecondLevel":"bond","stockType":"fund","areaCode":"cn","market":"a","tickerId":583,"masterFundFlag":1,"lastUpdated":"2024-05-16T10:28:47.346Z","status":"normal","inceptionDate":"2014-05-28T16:00:00.000Z","name":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金","exchange":"jj","followedNum":3,"fundCollectionId":4000050750000,"currency":"CNY","masterFundShortName":"江信聚福","pinyin":"jxjfdqkfzqxfqszqtzjj","managers":[{"stockCode":"db20900933","stockType":"fund_manager","exchange":"fm","tickerId":130318234480,"name":"马超然"}]},"announcement":{"linkText":"江信聚福定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金2020年中期报告","linkUrl":"http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund/disclose/instance_show_pdf_id.do?instanceid=453932","linkType":"PDF","source":"csrc_pdf"}}]}